price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the recent domestic PC market has shown weak consolidation, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing a narrow decline. As of July 22nd, the benchmark price of Business Society PC hybrid is around 14333.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.92% compared to early July.
cause analysis
Supply side: Since mid July, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises has stabilized. The interval flat coal Shenma has resumed after a short shutdown, with the industry’s average operating level rising narrowly to 77%, and the weekly average output approaching 65000 tons. The on-site supply is abundant, with high inventory levels remaining stagnant, and the pattern of ample PC supply remains unchanged. After the addition, there is currently no news of maintenance released in the market, and the pressure on shipments has not decreased. The market supply side has poor support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that bisphenol A fell and then turned sideways in mid July. Upstream acetone and phenol also fluctuate at low levels, dragging down spot prices. Meanwhile, bisphenol A is also affected by the supply-demand imbalance, with little change in demand and a lack of upward momentum in the market. Overall, the intraday market trend of bisphenol A has weak support for PC costs. However, with PC prices currently at historically low levels, the easing of cost pressures has also given PC some room for maneuver.
On the demand side: Currently, July is the traditional off-season for PC, with downstream factories experiencing lower loads and weak inventory, mainly due to rigid demand, further dragging down the consumer end. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site supply, the supply-demand contradiction within the range has not improved. At present, terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing new orders, and their trading performance continues to be dominated by contract delivery. Merchants tend to have a wait-and-see attitude, buyers are resistant to high priced goods, and the flow of goods in the market is slow. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
Recently, the domestic PC market has been consolidating weakly. The upstream bisphenol A market is consolidating at a low level, which provides poor support for the cost value of PC. The upstream concessions have made it difficult for the industry to operate at a high level, and the overall load of domestic PC aggregation plants has remained stable with little increase. The pattern of strong supply remains unchanged, while the downstream demand has obvious characteristics of off-season. At present, it is difficult to see any positive developments in the market, and industry players are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the future. However, with low PC prices and limited room for decline, it is expected that the PC market may enter a stalemate in the future.
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