According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the focus of the PTA market has slightly shifted in recent times. As of July 21, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4825 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.89% compared to July 16.
The crude oil market prices fluctuated and adjusted slightly. As of the 18th, the settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $66.05 per barrel, and the settlement price of the September Brent crude oil futures contract was $69.28 per barrel. The main positive factors for the rise are the continuation of the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the United States, market concerns about the fragility of the geopolitical situation, and the continued US sanctions stance against some oil producing countries.
The PTA market went out of stock from March to June, and in July, maintenance facilities resumed production one after another, increasing the supply margin. The market lacks unplanned news guidance. In addition, with the start of trial production of 3.2 million tons of PTA new capacity in East China, the supply has increased, and the current operating rate of the PTA industry is around 80%. Recently, there has been little change in the supply side, maintaining a pattern of accumulated inventory. The supply-demand structure has improved narrowly, and there is a lack of substantial positive news in the periphery, resulting in a slightly insufficient market drive.
At the same time, the downstream polyester market has entered a low season of demand, with a production rate of around 86% and expectations of reduced output. Under the continuous weakening of demand, the focus of market transactions has shifted downwards, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is insufficient to maintain essential demand. Terminal textile enterprises have to alleviate capital turnover pressure by reducing production, coupled with a decrease in foreign trade orders, most of which focus on digesting inventory.
Business analysts believe that the narrow range of positive fluctuations in the crude oil market, but the overall weak performance of PTA supply and demand, will suppress the upward trend of PTA prices.
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