Price trend

At the beginning of August, the domestic PA66 market trend was biased towards consolidation. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the mixed benchmark price of PA66 in China was 18333.33 yuan/ton on August 7th, with a+0.73% increase or decrease compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Recently, the market trend of PA66 has continued to be weak, and overall, the spot prices of various brands have been low. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry is currently maintained at around 60%, and it operated horizontally last week compared to the previous period. The production line situation of the enterprise remains at the end of last month, and the on-site supply is still relatively sufficient, so the supply side’s support for spot goods is average. Poor digestion in terms of inventory, negative corporate confidence, and cautious pricing operations. On the upstream side, the domestic market for hexamethylene diamine has weakened due to the impact of price adjustments by major international manufacturers in the early stage. In terms of adipic acid market, the trend was sideways after rising, with raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone showing a strong trend. The cost side is flat and falling, and the current positive effect of adipic acid on PA66 spot is not significant. PA66 raw material side has poor support for spot goods, and the demand situation is weak and stable. Terminal enterprises mainly rely on goods to maintain production, and buyers generally resist high priced sources of goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue its weak consolidation in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the spot price of PA66 has been sorted and operated. The price trend of raw materials has started to weaken, with general support for the cost side of PA66. The load of PA66 enterprise is maintained, and there is no significant improvement in supply support. The demand side takes goods to maintain production, and it is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak and vulnerable market in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of domestic liquid Caprolactam was 12600 yuan/ton on July 31, and the average price of domestic liquid Caprolactam was 12987 yuan/ton on August 4. The price of Caprolactam rose 3.08% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market prices rose this week. The price of raw material pure benzene continues to rise, and cost support is strengthened. Under cost pressure, the spot price of Caprolactam continues to rise along with the raw material market. Some devices of Caprolactam have been overhauled, and the number of spot products on the market has decreased, and the downstream will follow up as required. As of August 4, the settlement price of Sinopec high-end Caprolactam was 13650 yuan/ton, and the liquid products were of superior quality, which were accepted and withdrawn in June.

The price of raw material pure benzene has increased this week. On July 31st, the price of pure benzene was 7287 yuan/ton. On Friday (August 4th), the price of pure benzene was 7670 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.08% compared to last week and a decrease of 9.94% compared to the same period last year. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene rose to 7600 yuan/ton (with prices in Shandong and Hebei regions simultaneously increasing by 400 yuan/ton).

3、 Future Market Forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price trend of raw material pure benzene is relatively strong in recent days. Affected by the cost boost and the reduction of the supply side, the price trend of Caprolactam market continues to rise. Under the favorable factors, it is expected that the price of Caprolactam will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from July 27th to August 3rd, the domestic butadiene market price remained at 7201 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 19.01% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.81%. The higher prices of crude oil and Naphtha have brought about a certain pull from the cost side. At the same time, the prices of some downstream products have risen, which has certain support from the market demand side. The merchants’ expectations of demand are stronger, and the offer of the outer market for the far month ships is firm, so the market atmosphere is high.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: crude oil continues to rise, and there is profit taking and risk aversion behavior in the market. The expectation of tightening market supply in the later stage still plays a role, and it is expected that the oil market will still have upward momentum, but upward resistance will limit the upward range of oil prices. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $79.49 per barrel, a decrease of $1.88 or 2.3%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $83.20 per barrel, a decrease of $1.71 or 2.0%.

In terms of Naphtha, the domestic Naphtha market continued to be at a high level. Supported by the just need of terminal restructuring, the refinery actively pushed up, and the deal was good. On August 3, the benchmark price of Naphtha of the business community was 8054.00 yuan/ton. The cost of butadiene is a favorable factor.

On the supply side, the main production enterprises, Sinopec, and various sales companies have stable prices for butadiene, with a listed price of 7200 yuan/ton as of August 3rd. Some preliminary maintenance devices have been restarted, and the capacity utilization rate of the butadiene industry has increased month on month. Short term bearish impact on butadiene supply side.

On the demand side, some maintenance devices were restarted, and the capacity utilization rate of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber and Styrene-butadiene increased month on month. As of August 3, the benchmark price of Styrene-butadiene of the business community was 11758.33 yuan/ton, and the benchmark price of Polybutadiene was 10940.00 yuan/ton. The profit of the downstream industry was fair, and there was no obvious drag on the demand side. The demand for butadiene is relatively strong.

On August 2nd, the closing price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB South Korea was quoted at $695-705 per ton; China CFR reports 745-755 US dollars per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $405-415 per ton; FD Northwestern Europe closed at 495-505 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, as some supplier prices increase, it is difficult for the market to have low-priced supply to supplement. Short term bullish expectations further stimulate downstream inquiries to follow up, and the focus of transactions continues to rise. Butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market is expected to rise again.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this month, with prices gradually increasing. On July 1st, the price was 6183 yuan/ton; On July 31st, the price was at 7265 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.49% compared to the beginning of the month and a decrease of 18.29% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

1. Crude oil rose broadly. 2. The Asian American arbitrage window has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is high, resulting in a high import volume of pure benzene in July. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is sufficient. 3. Downstream profitability is poor, styrene has slightly increased, regional demand is strong, downstream purchases are normal, traders just need to replenish, driving the transaction center to continue to move up, and crude oil prices have risen.

This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 1000 yuan/ton to 7200 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

Some economic data in the United States has improved, and Saudi Arabia may further extend the deadline for additional production cuts, causing international oil prices to continue to rise. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 09 rose by $80.58 per barrel, or 0.61%, by $0.49 per barrel; ICE oil futures contract 09 rose by $0.75 per barrel, or 0.89%, at $84.99 per barrel. The main contract for China INE crude oil futures, 2309, rose 3.5 yuan to 606.7 yuan/barrel, and rose 4.4 yuan to 611.1 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

On July 31st, in external trading: FOB South Korea increased by $6 to $873 per ton, CFR China increased by $15 to $895 per ton, FOB Southeast Asia increased by $6 to $842 per ton, FOB Rotterdam stabilized at $870 per ton, and FOB USG stabilized at 317 cents per gallon.

The fundamentals are showing an upward trend in the short term, with sufficient supply on the market. Pure benzene may continue to rise in the short term, and we are waiting to see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream devices, and changes in demand on the price of pure benzene.

Price trend

The domestic PA66 market showed a negative trend in July. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the benchmark price of domestic PA66 was 18200 yuan/ton on August 1st, a decrease of -7.46% compared to the price level at the beginning of July.

Cause analysis

In July, the market trend of PA66 continued to be weak, and overall, spot prices of various brands continued to decline. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry is currently maintained at around 60%, with a narrow increase within the month. Some production lines of enterprises are only resuming work, and the on-site supply of goods is still relatively sufficient, so the supply side’s support for spot goods is average. Poor digestion in terms of inventory, negative corporate confidence, and cautious pricing operations. Upstream, the domestic market of Hexamethylenediamine is weak. The Adipic acid market rose moderately. The rise of crude oil in July drove both pure benzene and Cyclohexanone, the raw materials of Adipic acid, to strengthen. However, due to the price fluctuation in the early stage, Adipic acid has no obvious advantage on the spot of PA66. PA66 raw material side has poor support for spot goods, and the demand situation is weak and stable. Terminal enterprises mainly rely on goods to maintain production, and buyers generally resist high priced sources of goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue its weak consolidation in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

The spot price of PA66 in July was negative. The price trend of the raw material side is acceptable, but the support for the cost side of PA66 is average. The load of PA66 enterprise is maintained, and there is no significant improvement in supply support. The demand side takes goods to maintain production, and it is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak and vulnerable market in the short term.