1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, the PVC spot market prices fluctuated and fell in December. On December 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5698 yuan/ton. On December 29th, the average price was 5638 yuan/ton, and the price dropped by 1.05% during the month.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC spot market prices fluctuated and fell in December. In the first half of this month, the spot market fell first and then rose. Affected by the continuous weakening of initial futures, spot market prices have also fallen. The recovery of the futures market in the later period has driven the confidence of the spot market, and the PVC spot price has rebounded and risen. In the middle of the month, be cautious and observe. The confidence in the PVC spot market is average, and prices are mainly stable with slight fluctuations. In the latter half of the year, the spot market rose first and then fell. Affected by the fire incident in the cracking workshop of a company’s olefin plant in Zibo, Shandong, the futures market in the early stage was biased towards strong operation. Some spot manufacturers have raised prices, and dealer prices have followed suit. In the later period, futures continued to decline, market confidence was severely suppressed, the trading atmosphere was poor, and market prices were lowered. As of now, the quotation range for PVC 5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5300-5800 yuan/ton.

On December 28th, international crude oil futures plummeted by over 3%. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $71.77 per barrel, a decrease of $2.34 or 3.2%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $77.15 per barrel, a decrease of $2.39 or 3.0%. Red Sea shipping has gradually resumed, geopolitical risks have eased, and oil prices are under pressure.

In terms of calcium carbide, some areas in the northwest have unstable power supply for calcium carbide enterprises, resulting in a decrease in production volume. In addition, some areas are affected by rainy and snowy weather, and the circulation of calcium carbide is not smooth, leading to a tight supply of calcium carbide. In December, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region slightly increased. The price of calcium carbide increased from 2916.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2983.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.29%. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in mid to early January, with consolidation being the main trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to PVC analysts from Business Society, the PVC spot market prices have fluctuated and fallen this month, and the real estate market has performed less than expected. Downstream market demand is weak, and purchasing enthusiasm is average. At present, traders purchase at low prices, and the transaction situation is still acceptable. In addition, international crude oil futures have plummeted by over 3%. The combination of negative factors is expected to result in a weak and stable PVC market in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of polyaluminum chloride slightly increased in December. The solid (industrial grade, with a content of ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market in China reported around 1777.50 yuan/ton on the 31st and 1760.00 yuan/ton on the 1st, an increase of 0.99%. The production of water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas is normal, with sufficient market inventory. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and the price of raw material hydrochloric acid is declining. The overall fuel market is significantly declining, and the market for polyaluminum chloride is mainly wait-and-see.

Raw material hydrochloric acid: The domestic hydrochloric acid market price fluctuated and fell in December. The price of hydrochloric acid dropped from 125 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 112.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 10%. The upstream liquid chlorine price has dropped significantly, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market has experienced a significant decline, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent market for hydrochloric acid may experience a slight fluctuation and decline.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic liquefied natural gas prices fell first and then rose in December. In the first half of December, raw gas prices significantly decreased, cost support weakened, and liquid prices concentrated in a decline. Rainy and snowy weather is approaching in many parts of China, leading to poor transportation and restricted market supply of goods. There is a large amount of inventory in the market, and downstream demand is weak. Liquid factories have a strong attitude towards inventory reduction and are willing to reduce prices, resulting in a continuous decline in liquid prices. In terms of sea and gas, some receiving stations have lowered their prices. In the second half of December, there was a slight increase in raw gas prices, increasing cost support and driving up liquid prices. After snowfall, traffic flows smoothly. Frequent cold air attacks in China have been affected by cooling weather in many areas, leading to a significant increase in downstream replenishment demand and a continuous rise in liquefied natural gas prices. In terms of sea and gas, some receiving stations have raised prices.

Market forecast: In December, the market for raw material hydrochloric acid and fuel liquefied natural gas will significantly decline, while the cost of polyaluminum chloride will decrease. On the supply side, Chinese polyaluminum chloride manufacturers are producing normally and have sufficient inventory; On the demand side, there has been no significant improvement in purchasing willingness, and stability is the main focus. The rebound in fuel liquefied natural gas prices in late December has provided some support for the future market of polyaluminum chloride. Analysis suggests that the recent market of polyaluminum chloride may be dominated by consolidation.

On December 28, 2023, the cash and tax prices of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non acid washed, simple packaging) from various major production areas in China remained stable, with an overall range of 20300 to 20600 yuan/ton. Negotiations on actual orders were the main focus.

The specific price ranges for each region are as follows:

Factory tax inclusive spot exchange in Fugu area is 20300-20400 yuan/ton; Current exchange rate in Taiyuan area is 20400-20500 yuan/ton; Current exchange rate in Wenxi area is 20500-20600 yuan/ton; The current exchange rate in Ningxia is 20300-20400 yuan/ton.

Magnesium ingots are native magnesium ingots in accordance with the national standard (GB/T3499-2011); Non acid washing, no wooden pallets, and non payment acceptance price, actual order negotiation is the main focus.

Overview of the trend of metallic magnesium in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the average domestic market price on the 28th was 20633.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28% compared to the average market price of 20900 yuan/ton in early December (12.1); Compared to the beginning of the year (1.1), the average market price was 21700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.92%.

In December, the magnesium ingot market continued its stalemate since mid November, maintaining a weak and stable trend. Mainstream factories offered a stable price of 20500 yuan/ton including tax in spot exchange. In the stalemate game between supply and demand, on the one hand, the market transaction activity was not high at that time, and the atmosphere of cautious observation was highlighted. The weather conditions in the main production areas caused difficulties in shipping and transportation, and the overseas market was lukewarm. On the other hand, the price of magnesium ingots has approached the cost line, and the market price is in a dilemma of rising and falling.

In terms of supply and demand

The manufacturers that stopped production on the supply side have steadily resumed production, and the overall market output has shown a slight upward trend. The overall supply is relatively sufficient. Mainstream factories still have a strong willingness to stabilize prices, coupled with individual manufacturers having inverted costs, resulting in a weaker willingness to ship at low prices. The downstream demand side continues to be sluggish, coupled with fluctuations in export exchange rates and tightening of year-end funding chains, some factories have started to adjust prices slightly according to market trends. At the end of the month, due to the impact of the international situation, the freight rates for European shipping increased significantly, and export orders were further reduced, resulting in a bearish price drop of 50-100 yuan/ton.

Ferrosilicon experienced a cumulative decline of 1% in December

In December, with the decline of silicon iron futures and the pressure of steel bidding, the spot market continued to be weak. On December 28th, the price of silicon iron in Ningxia was between 6550-6700 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6661 yuan/ton. Currently, profits of ferrosilicon enterprises are being squeezed, production enthusiasm is average, and downstream demand is difficult to release. The spot operation of ferrosilicon still maintains a conservative attitude.

In December, Lancan started its fifth round of price reduction, with mainstream downstream calcium carbide enterprises raising and lowering Lancan’s medium and small materials by 60-90 yuan/ton. Although the high transaction volume of by-product tar has increased, the losses of Lancan plants are still severe. As of December 27th, the mainstream prices of small and medium-sized materials in the Shenmu market are 1080-1210 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 680-750 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of small and medium-sized materials in the Fugu market is 1100-1220 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 740-750 yuan/ton. Magnesium ingot factories have been affected by the decline of blue charcoal, resulting in increased production costs and little willingness to lower prices.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the magnesium ingot market will operate weakly and steadily in December, and the market will still be in the game stage. The situation of oversupply in the market is difficult to improve. With no favorable factors in the market, prices will fluctuate narrowly within the range.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 756 yuan/ton on December 1st, and 826 yuan/ton on December 27th. The price of ammonium sulfate increased by 9.25% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate fluctuated and increased this month. In the first half of December, the domestic ammonium sulfate market saw a slight pullback after an increase in prices. The manufacturer mainly supports the price, while downstream and some distributors make up for the price. International demand remains sluggish, and there is no positive trend on the demand side. In the second half of December, the bidding price of domestic ammonium sulfate increased. Foreign orders have been followed up in small quantities, downstream demand is still acceptable, and market trading is good. Dealers are actively restocking and have a resistance towards high prices. As of December 27th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 740 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 850-880 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from October 2, 2023 to December 18, 2023, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle fluctuates. There was a significant increase in December, with the largest increase being 3.86% in the week ending December 18th.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The ammonium sulfate analyst from Business Society believes that the recent market trend of ammonium sulfate is relatively strong. At present, there is an increase in market inquiries and an improvement in demand. Downstream and distributors are actively acquiring goods. It is expected that the price trend of ammonium sulfate will be dominant in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the spot market price of gold on December 26, 2023 was 480.64 yuan/gram, an increase of 1.30% compared to the spot market price of gold at the beginning of this month (December 1), which was 474.48 yuan/gram.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of silver in the market on December 25, 2023 was 6060 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.83% compared to the average price of 6173 yuan/kg in the silver market at the beginning of this month (December 1).

From November 2022 to early February 2023, precious metal prices significantly increased. From March to the end of April, due to the impact of the US banking crisis, precious metal prices once again entered a period of skyrocketing. Silver prices began to fall in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices hit a high level and silver prices began to rise. After July, gold prices became stronger. In mid to late September, precious metal prices were affected by news from the Federal Reserve, leading to a high level correction. In October, due to geopolitical factors, the risk aversion sentiment rose and continued to rise. In early November, the high range was weak and fluctuated horizontally. At the end of the month, precious metal prices resumed, and silver saw a stronger monthly increase than gold. Silver prices slightly declined in December, while gold prices remained relatively strong

At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after reaching a new decade high in the early stage. Under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes we anticipated earlier, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world have increased their holdings of gold reserves, which has also provided some support for gold prices. It is reported that in the third quarter of 2023, central banks and other institutions of various countries increased their holdings of gold by 337.1 tons, an increase of 93% compared to the previous quarter.

The recent release of US GDP and inflation data in the third quarter has strengthened the possibility of aggressive interest rate cuts when the cooling level is deeper than expected. The Federal Reserve’s expectation of interest rate cuts in 2024 has increased, which is beneficial for precious metal prices. In the short term, it is expected that precious metals will operate stronger.