The price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and rose in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 31, the price of DOTP was 10540 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.10% compared to the price of 9750 yuan/ton on July 1. In July, the prices of raw materials such as isooctanol and PTA increased, resulting in higher costs. The downstream PVC market supported the increase, and the demand for plasticizers rebounded. In July, the price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and increased.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol was 9983.33 yuan/ton on July 31, an increase of 6.77% compared to 9350 yuan/ton on July 1. The inventory of isooctanol is low, and the market center has shifted upwards. In July, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased, resulting in an increase in raw material costs and a surge in the price of plasticizer DOTP.

PTA prices fluctuated and rose in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PTA price on July 31st was 6010.91 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.34% compared to the PTA price of 5600 yuan/ton on July 1st. Crude oil prices fluctuate and rise, PTA costs rise, PTA prices fluctuate and rise in July, PTA new production falls, PTA supply increases, PTA growth slows down, plasticizer DOTP raw material costs rise in July, but the rise slows down, plasticizer DOTP prices fluctuate and rise.

PVC prices fluctuated and rose in July

According to the PVC product market analysis system of the Business Society, as of July 31, the PVC quotation was 5796.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.30% compared to the PVC price of 5505 yuan/ton on July 1. In July, PVC prices fluctuated and increased, while crude oil prices fluctuated and increased. PVC costs and prices also increased; The delay of two policies in the “16 Financial Regulations” will help promote the completion and delivery of real estate projects, increase the expected demand for PVC, increase the upward momentum of PVC, rebound downstream demand, and increase the upward momentum of plasticizer demand.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that the price of crude oil has risen, and the prices of isooctanol and PTA have continued to rise in July. The cost of plasticizer product DOTP has increased, and downstream PVC demand has been supported greatly. The demand for plasticizers has rebounded, and the upward momentum of plasticizer product DOTP prices has increased. In the future, with rising costs and a rebound in demand, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the overall price of toluene showed a stepwise upward trend in July. On July 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 7060 yuan/ton, and on July 29th, it was 7860 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.33% compared to the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil price rose and the downstream product oil consumption tax policy was introduced, driving up the price of toluene; In the later stage, on the one hand, international crude oil prices continued to rise, and on the other hand, domestic supply of PetroChina South China and CNOOC Huizhou decreased, once again driving the toluene market up significantly.

In terms of crude oil, as of July 28th, international crude oil futures prices have once again risen. On July 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $80.09 per barrel. WTI crude oil has reached its highest point in the past three months. The main contract for Brent crude oil futures settled at $83.79 per barrel on July 28th. The oil market has been boosted by the expected tightening of supply and continued fermentation, as well as the rebound in demand. Regarding the future trend of crude oil, oil analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, supply tension is expected to continue to rise, as supply restrictions from Saudi Arabia and Russia will continue until August, which will help the oil market maintain a strong trend. The rebound in demand will also bring certain benefits to the oil market. In the medium term, the oil market still faces certain uncertainties. On the one hand, the situation between Ukraine and Russia may intensify, and geopolitical tensions will have an impact on the oil market. At the same time, there have been recent bad news from the European and American banking industries, and the possibility of a banking crisis erupting again could have a negative impact on oil prices. Overall, the oil market is relatively strong in the short term, and there is still uncertainty in the medium term.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, this month, the TDI market first rose, then fell, and then slightly rebounded, with an overall slight upward trend. On June 1st, the TDI benchmark price was 17300 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, the price rose to 17800 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the increase was 2.89% compared to the beginning of the month, with a cycle high of 18166 yuan/ton. In the early stages of this month, the centralized replenishment of TDI downstream has formed certain support for TDI, leading to a rise in TDI prices; Later, with the end of restocking and resistance to high priced sources, TDI demand was weak and prices slightly decreased; At the end of the month, due to cost support and low willingness of merchants to lower prices, TDI prices are temporarily stable and firm.

In terms of downstream PX, it can be seen from the trend chart of P-Xylene that the price of P-Xylene rose in July. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of P-Xylene was 8500 yuan/ton, 3.03% higher than the price of 8250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, down 10.99% year on year. In July, the supply of P-Xylene was relatively normal, and the domestic PX operating rate was more than 70%. However, in the maintenance of some P-Xylene devices, the spot supply did not change much, and the PX price trend rose. The trend of international crude oil prices in July has significantly increased, and the external price of PX has been affected by this. As of the 27th, the closing prices in the Asian region were 1044-1046 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1069-1071 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has fluctuated mainly. On the whole, the operating rate of P-Xylene units in Asia is more than 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia has not changed much. Supported by crude oil, the external price has risen, and the price of P-Xylene in the domestic market has risen..

In terms of gasoline, the gasoline price range fluctuated this month, with a slight increase at the end of the month compared to the beginning of the month. On June 1, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8478 yuan/ton, and on June 30, the price was 8700 yuan/ton, up 2.62% from the beginning of the month. In the first half of the month, the price of refined oil rose first and then fell. On June 30, the State Taxation Administration issued Announcement No. 11 of 2023, which unified the policy of levying consumption tax on a variety of raw materials, including mixed aromatics. After the announcement of this policy, the gasoline market ushered in a rapid rise, with gasoline prices rising by 200-300 yuan/ton, As the policy impact weakens, the gasoline market gradually returns to rationality, and gasoline market prices have fallen. Although domestic refining operations slightly increased the supply of refined oil products in the second half of the month, gasoline prices continued to rise slightly due to the rise in crude oil prices.

Future forecast: According to toluene analysts from Business Society, international crude oil prices will continue to operate at high levels in the short term, with support for the cost of toluene; The tight supply of toluene in the short term will drive the high and strong price of toluene; Although the supply side may have eased in August, the downstream product oil of toluene is expected to continue to operate at a high level, providing support for toluene; In summary, it is expected that the toluene market will mainly consolidate at a high level in August.

During the period (7.19-7.26), the acetic acid market in East China was weak, the price trend continued to decline, the raw material side price was mainly volatile, the cost support was limited, the downstream of the demand side was more wait-and-see mentality, the purchase into the market was followed up as required, the overall market trading atmosphere was general, and the acetic acid supply side maintenance equipment was restarted, the market supply increased, and the manufacturer’s goods were weak, the focus of acetic acid negotiation was lower, and the market market was weak.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 26, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 3166.67 yuan/ton, 2.06% lower than the price of 3233.33 yuan/ton on July 19, 9.83% higher than the beginning of the month. As of July 26th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions during the week were as follows:

The upstream raw material methanol market first fell and then rose. As of July 26th, the average price in the domestic market was 2255.83 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 0.62% compared to the price of 2270.00 yuan/ton on July 19th. The high price of raw coal has provided some support for methanol production. In terms of start-up, some methanol plants in the northwest and southwest have recovered in the early stage, leading to an increase in market supply and a downward trend in bearish methanol prices. In the later stage, downstream demand has slightly increased, and the mentality of the operators is optimistic. Methanol prices have slightly increased.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is operating weakly. As of July 26th, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5137.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.20% compared to the price of 5200.00 yuan/ton on July 19th. The upstream acetic acid price has decreased, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased, acetic anhydride enterprises are operating steadily, the market supply is sufficient, and downstream demand is limited. The actual market transactions are average, and the price of acetic anhydride has slightly declined.

In the future market forecast, acetic acid analysts from Business Society believe that the maintenance equipment in the acetic acid market has resumed, market supply has increased, and manufacturers’ inventory is still acceptable and maintain active shipments. The enthusiasm of downstream parties to enter the market is average, and market transactions are insufficient. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the acetic acid market will be reorganized and operated in the future.

Overview of Boric Acid Market in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of boric acid fell first and then rose in July, causing sideways fluctuations. As of July 26th, the average market price of boric acid in China was 7387.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34% compared to the beginning of the month. However, compared to the beginning of the year, the average market price was 8100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.80%.

At present, the external quotation for imported goods is concentrated at 7000-8200 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated). According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of imported boric acid is 7590.91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% compared to the average market price at the beginning of the month.

Business Society Boric Acid Analysts believe that boric acid is gradually entering the long short game stage, with prices mainly fluctuating sideways.

As of July 25th, the current domestic operating rate of BDO is around 67.82%, with a full month operating rate of around 65%. Most downstream terminal areas are in the off-season in July, with small orders for just needed purchases being the main focus, and the overall market is in a tight and balanced supply state.

From the current information, there is a decrease in supply in August. On the demand side, July August is the traditional off-season, while September is the traditional peak season. Downstream demand for BDO is increasing month by month. Based on the current actual supply and demand, it cannot be ruled out that there will be a “mismatch” between supply and demand in the third quarter of BDO. Specifically:

On the supply side, based on the comprehensive calculation of existing maintenance and restart messages, the BDO operation in August was around 54%. If there are new maintenance and unexpected shutdowns, the operation rate will be lower. From this perspective, the BDO supply in August significantly decreased compared to July.

On the demand side, August gradually enters the peak demand season, and the traditional peak season demand base in September is greater than the overall demand in the off-season. Among them, the main downstream PTMEG has maintained tight supply since July, and the seasonal demand for its main downstream spandex from August to September only increases and does not decrease for PTMEG. Another major downstream PBT is that the demand for spinning in the peak season will be higher than that in the off-season, while the demand for GBL, degradable materials, PU, TPU, and other fields will maintain and have the potential for slight growth.

Overall, it is expected that BDO in the third quarter, especially from August to September, will gradually decrease in market supply and inventory, and demand will inevitably increase under the peak season effect, with a high probability of tight market supply.