April Price Trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of cryolite remained stable in April. On April 28th, the average market price in Henan Province was 7825 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price at the beginning of the month at 7825 yuan/ton, and increased by 2.29% year-on-year.

In April, the domestic cryolite market was stable and wait-and-see. During the month, the cryolite enterprises’ quotations were mainly stable. Some enterprises in Shandong Province made a small reduction in their quotations according to their own shipments. The raw material prices were stable at a high level. The upstream costs supported the cryolite price at a high level. The downstream demand was general. The market access was followed up as needed. The cryolite enterprises’ shipments were OK, and the market price was stable.

Analysis of upstream and downstream market conditions

On the upstream side, domestic fluorite remained stable and upward in April. Mining enterprises were affected by safety and environmental requirements, resulting in insufficient production of fluorite and tight spot supply. The price of fluorite remained high, while the demand side hydrofluoric acid price slightly increased, which brought some benefits to the fluorite market. The price trend of fluorite slightly increased, with an average price of 3075.00 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 1.23% compared to the price of 3037.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The downstream aluminum market fell first and then rose in April. At the end of the month, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18490.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.00% compared to the average market price of 18676.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In April, the social inventory of aluminum ingots significantly decreased, and the export situation was average. Domestic production increased, and under the game of supply and demand, the aluminum market fluctuated.

Future Market Forecast

The cost support of cryolite enterprises is good, the supply of raw materials is tight, and the price of cryolite is operating at a high level. Downstream follow-up is needed, and the enterprise’s shipment is still acceptable. The market supply and demand are stagnant, and it is expected that the short-term cryolite market will operate on a wait-and-see basis.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in April 2023, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market showed a slight fluctuation and downward trend. Among them, on the 1st, the market reported around 15242 yuan/ton, and on the 27th, the market reported around 14728 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 3.37% compared to the single month decline in the first quarter.

From January 2023 to present, as shown in the figure, the polyacrylamide market in China has weakened for several weeks, and the weekly decline has slightly expanded since April. The demand in the water treatment industry has been unfavorable this month, with normal production from manufacturers in the main production areas and sufficient spot supply in the market. The situation of strong supply and weak demand has not been improved, resulting in the market not being able to rise, fully confirming the company’s claim that “business is difficult to do this year”, and currently, there are no signs of improvement in the market for polyacrylamide.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market slightly declined in April. As of April 27th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 9675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.73% from 10050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material propylene fluctuates narrowly, and the cost of acrylonitrile is relatively weak; The downstream polyacrylamide market has slightly declined, while ABS production has slightly declined, resulting in weaker support for acrylonitrile compared to the previous period; The fundamentals are not significantly positive, while the price of acrylonitrile is weak and slightly lower. The fundamentals are not significantly positive, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be weak and consolidate in the later stage.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the acrylic acid market in April experienced slight fluctuations after a sharp decline at the beginning of the month. Among them, this month’s premium grade acrylic acid market in East China reported around 7100 yuan/ton on the 1st, but dropped to 6775 yuan/ton on the 6th, a decrease of 4.58%; On the 27th day of the month, the main report was 6880 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 4.23%. Recently, the market price of raw propylene has fallen, and the impact of cost is limited. The operating rate of the supply side industry has increased compared with the previous period. The downstream procurement is mainly just in demand, and the demand side follows the general trend. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will continue to consolidate in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, domestic liquefied natural gas prices continued to fluctuate and rise in April. Among them, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China on the 1st was 4310 yuan/ton, and the average market price on the 27th was 4430 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.78%; The monthly price peak appeared at 4694 yuan/ton on the 22nd, and the lowest point appeared at 3926 yuan/ton on the 7th, with a maximum amplitude of 19.56%.

Future Market Forecast: In April, the raw material market will be in a downward trend, with only the fuel market moving upwards, and the overall cost of polyacrylamide will be weak. This month, the prosperity of China’s water treatment industry continued to be low, with manufacturers in the main production areas producing normally and abundant in stock. Downstream demand has not improved, and it is neither warm nor hot, lacking heat. Regarding the future market, the May Day holiday is approaching, and many demand is temporarily suspended. After the holiday returns, it may be difficult for the downstream industry to make significant changes, and the polyacrylamide market will continue to be weak and weak.

As the holiday approaches, the epoxy resin market has broken the long-term downturn and the focus of negotiations has increased this week. By the 26th, the mainstream negotiated price in East China was 14000-14500 yuan/ton of purified water, and the negotiated price in Mount Huangshan solid epoxy resin market was 1360-14000 yuan/ton. Compared to last week, the increase is about 500 yuan/ton.

Enhanced cost support for dual raw material heating

The market for raw material bisphenol A has shown a significant upward trend. Prior to the holiday, due to tight supply and tight spot resources, the market quotation quickly exceeded 10000 yuan. As of the 26th, the negotiated price for bisphenol A in the market was 10050 yuan/ton. The market resource is limited, and there is no pressure on the supply of goods by the holders to release profits and have little intention of shipping. However, the downstream procurement pace has slowed down after the price rose to 10000 yuan. With the approaching holiday, the actual orders on the market mainly need to be followed up, with fewer large orders. However, the upward trend of the bisphenol A market has a greater support for downstream epoxy resins.

The raw material epichlorohydrin also showed a significant upward trend in late April. On April 20th, the market negotiated a price of 8825 yuan/ton, and as of now, the market negotiated a price of 8975 yuan/ton. Although the trading volume this week was slightly weak, it still has a supportive effect on the downstream epoxy resin market from a cost perspective.

The current operating rate of the epoxy resin plant is around 50%, and downstream demand is mainly small orders. Although the current cost support is strong, the actual order volume of the epoxy resin itself is insufficient.

The increase in raw material bisphenol A is significant, with negotiations reaching around 10050 yuan/ton. The price of raw material epichlorohydrin continues to be strong. Both raw materials are supported, but from the downstream perspective of epoxy resin, there has been no significant improvement in procurement. The actual transaction volume of epoxy resin is insufficient, and it is expected that there will be little change before the holiday, maintaining a strong operating state. The negotiation reference for liquid epoxy resin in the East China region is 14000-14500 yuan/ton of purified water for factory delivery.

The high price of aluminum has fallen back

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on April 25, 2023, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18843.33 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.37%, and an increase of 0.89% compared to the aluminum price of 18676.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (April 1).

In the long run, after the current high price has fallen, it has been fluctuating sideways within the range of 17500 to 19500 yuan/ton. In mid April, aluminum prices improved, breaking through 19000 yuan/ton within the month, and starting to decline this week.

Overview of recent market trends and motivations

The insufficient precipitation in the southwest and northwest has triggered a trend of reduced production of electrolytic aluminum, driving up the early aluminum price market. Recently, the hype has been released, and the high aluminum price has slightly declined.

Supply and demand fundamentals

Supply side: Electrolytic aluminum production is slowly resuming in Guizhou, Sichuan, and other regions, while new production capacity is released in Gansu Zhongrui and Baiyinhua. The drought in the southwestern region is intensifying, and attention is being paid to the trend of another reduction in production of electrolytic aluminum.

On the demand side: Downstream processing enterprises have a stable preference for operating conditions, and overall demand is expected to be positive, but the range is limited.

Inventory data: The significant decline in domestic inventory is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of aluminum to water, leading to a decrease in ingot production. At the same time, the maintenance of Xinjiang’s outbound railways has affected the shipment volume. Data shows that as of April 24th, the social inventory of mainstream regions in China was 838000 tons, which is 220000 tons compared to March 30th.

Future market forecast

From the supply side perspective, production remained stable in April, and inventory data showed a clear trend of inventory depletion in the electrolytic aluminum industry. The main game point currently lies in the actual supply and demand changes in the later stage. It is expected that aluminum prices will mainly fluctuate around 18800 yuan/ton in the short term, and we will be watching downstream consumption intensity in the near future.

Latest price: 9900 yuan/ton in the East China market

The focus of the domestic bisphenol A market is on the rise, with market offers ranging from 9850 to 9900 yuan/ton. The current industry operating rate is 70%, and the spot resources are limited towards the end of the month. As the holiday approaches, the enthusiasm for entering the downstream epoxy resin market has increased, and the market negotiation atmosphere has improved. The supply of goods in North China is still slightly tight, and the intention of factories to adjust prices is obvious. Traders’ offers have driven up. It is expected that the market will continue to strengthen in the near future, and attention will be paid to downstream demand.

On April 24th, the quotation situation of bisphenol A in the mainstream domestic market:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily fluctuations

East China region/ 9900./ 150

Shandong region/ 9850 ./ one hundred