According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the asphalt market has declined in a narrow range. From August 7th to 10th, the price of asphalt in Shandong fell from 3804 yuan/ton to 3776 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74%, a month on month increase of 0.09%, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.53%. The international crude oil market is relatively strong, but cost support is limited. The supply side continues to maintain a high level, and demand remains average. The asphalt market is weak in the short term.

In terms of supply, the daily production of major production enterprises has slightly increased, driving an overall increase in supply within the area.. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, with negative impacts on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: In terms of crude oil, the international crude oil price continues to rise, with the US WTI crude oil price reaching a nearly 9-month high. The main reason is that market supply concerns continue to ferment, coupled with the phased positive trend of the peak oil consumption season. As of the close on August 9th, the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was at $84.40 per barrel, an increase of $1.48 or 1.8%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $87.55 per barrel, an increase of $1.38 or 1.6%.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively flat, with varying demand in different regions. The market has slowly recovered in the early stages of demand, and demand in some regions has gradually increased. However, some regions are still difficult to show significant improvement due to the impact of rainfall. The demand side of the asphalt market has a relatively stable impact.

As of the close of August 10th, the oil asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2310 was opened at 3703 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 3727 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3688 yuan/ton. It closed at 3695 yuan/ton in the end, an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 0.27% compared to the settlement on the previous trading day. The trading volume was 187483 lots, the position was 193832 lots, and the daily increase was -13890.

In the future market forecast, international crude oil is operating at a high level, but the boost to the asphalt market is limited, and the supply side remains stable while increasing, with slight differences in demand among regions. Business Society asphalt analysts expect that the short-term domestic asphalt market situation will be mainly sorted out.

The domestic bisphenol A market is operating quietly. Recently, the overall weakness of the dual raw material phenol/acetone has declined. The phenol market price in East China is around 8000 yuan/ton, and the negotiated price of acetone in East China is around 6550 yuan/ton, supporting the weakness of the dual raw material. Downstream, epoxy resin and PC tend to operate weakly, and downstream new orders have low enthusiasm for entering the market.

On August 9th, the quotation situation of bisphenol A in the mainstream domestic market:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily fluctuations

East China region/ 10600./-100

Shandong region/ 10300./-200

At present, the pressure on shippers to ship has increased. This week, Nantong Xingchen will stop for maintenance, and the supply of bisphenol A in the market will decrease. However, with weak demand, it is expected that the market impact will be limited. In the short term, it is expected that bisphenol A will operate in a narrow range, and attention will be paid to the trend of dual raw materials and downstream demand follow-up.

The spot quantity of bisphenol A is limited, and there is currently no production and sales pressure from various manufacturers. The broad upward trend of raw materials has driven the downstream bisphenol A market to continue to rise. Pay attention to the recent transaction situation, and it is expected that bisphenol A will adjust at a high level today.

The price of plasticizer DOTP has increased significantly this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 8th, the price of DOTP was 11180 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.88% compared to the DOTP price of 10460 yuan/ton on July 30th. The price of isooctanol has skyrocketed, PTA prices have stopped rising and fallen, overall raw material costs have increased, downstream PVC market is weak, and demand for plasticizers remains weak. This week, the price of plasticizer DOTP has fluctuated and increased.

The price of isooctanol skyrocketed this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on August 8th was 11033.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.45% compared to the price of 9900 yuan/ton on July 30th. The planned and unexpected fluctuations in domestic octanol units have led to continuous tightening of the supply side, resulting in continuous increases in octanol prices. The inventory of isooctanol is low, and the market center has shifted upwards. This week, the price of isooctanol has skyrocketed, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw materials has increased. The price of plasticizer DOTP has also risen this week. As the price of isooctanol rises to a high point, buying and chasing high sentiment has become cautious. In mid to late August, two sets of isooctanol units in Shandong and Jiangsu are planned to restart, and the supply side of the isooctanol market is expected to be loose. In the future, the downward pressure on isooctanol will increase.

PTA prices have stopped rising and falling this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the PTA price on August 8th was 5848.18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.55% compared to the PTA price on July 30th, which was 6000.91 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices have fluctuated and increased, PTA costs have risen, new PTA production has landed, PTA supply has increased, downstream construction is low, PTA demand is poor, PTA prices have stopped rising and fallen. This week, the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw materials has slowed down, and there is insufficient support for the price increase of plasticizer DOTP in the future.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that the resumption of isooctanol production is insufficient support for the future surge in isooctanol prices. PTA prices have stopped rising and fallen, and the pressure on the cost decline of plasticizer product DOTP has increased; The demand for downstream PVC is weak, and the demand for plasticizers is cold; The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is 50%, and the supply of plasticizers is temporarily stable. In the future, there is insufficient support for cost increases, stable supply and weak demand, and weak support for plasticizer increases. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

Price trend

At the beginning of August, the domestic PA66 market trend was biased towards consolidation. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the mixed benchmark price of PA66 in China was 18333.33 yuan/ton on August 7th, with a+0.73% increase or decrease compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Recently, the market trend of PA66 has continued to be weak, and overall, the spot prices of various brands have been low. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry is currently maintained at around 60%, and it operated horizontally last week compared to the previous period. The production line situation of the enterprise remains at the end of last month, and the on-site supply is still relatively sufficient, so the supply side’s support for spot goods is average. Poor digestion in terms of inventory, negative corporate confidence, and cautious pricing operations. On the upstream side, the domestic market for hexamethylene diamine has weakened due to the impact of price adjustments by major international manufacturers in the early stage. In terms of adipic acid market, the trend was sideways after rising, with raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone showing a strong trend. The cost side is flat and falling, and the current positive effect of adipic acid on PA66 spot is not significant. PA66 raw material side has poor support for spot goods, and the demand situation is weak and stable. Terminal enterprises mainly rely on goods to maintain production, and buyers generally resist high priced sources of goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue its weak consolidation in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the spot price of PA66 has been sorted and operated. The price trend of raw materials has started to weaken, with general support for the cost side of PA66. The load of PA66 enterprise is maintained, and there is no significant improvement in supply support. The demand side takes goods to maintain production, and it is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak and vulnerable market in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of domestic liquid Caprolactam was 12600 yuan/ton on July 31, and the average price of domestic liquid Caprolactam was 12987 yuan/ton on August 4. The price of Caprolactam rose 3.08% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market prices rose this week. The price of raw material pure benzene continues to rise, and cost support is strengthened. Under cost pressure, the spot price of Caprolactam continues to rise along with the raw material market. Some devices of Caprolactam have been overhauled, and the number of spot products on the market has decreased, and the downstream will follow up as required. As of August 4, the settlement price of Sinopec high-end Caprolactam was 13650 yuan/ton, and the liquid products were of superior quality, which were accepted and withdrawn in June.

The price of raw material pure benzene has increased this week. On July 31st, the price of pure benzene was 7287 yuan/ton. On Friday (August 4th), the price of pure benzene was 7670 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.08% compared to last week and a decrease of 9.94% compared to the same period last year. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene rose to 7600 yuan/ton (with prices in Shandong and Hebei regions simultaneously increasing by 400 yuan/ton).

3、 Future Market Forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price trend of raw material pure benzene is relatively strong in recent days. Affected by the cost boost and the reduction of the supply side, the price trend of Caprolactam market continues to rise. Under the favorable factors, it is expected that the price of Caprolactam will continue to rise in the short term.