Price trends:
The crude benzol commodity index on August 10 was 57.16, unchanged from yesterday, down 56.64% from the cyclical peak of 131.84 points (2013-01-28), and up 45.63% from the lowest point of 39.25 on December 22, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).
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II. Market analysis:
This week (8.05-8.09) the domestic crude benzol Market declined, with the average domestic market price at 3716.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 3650 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 1.79%.
Domestic market: There are many negative factors in this week’s market, pure benzene external disc and international crude oil are lower. The market generally holds a bearish attitude towards the future market of Sinopec pure benzene. On the macro side, RMB exchange rate breaks 7, friction escalation, pure benzene external disc continues to decline, market mentality is not good, and the pressure on manufacturers to move goods increases. As of Friday, the mainstream offer in crude benzene market was 3150-3500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from last week. Demand: downstream hydrobenzene enterprises start relatively stable, but at present manufacturers are not very motivated to purchase, and have digested pre-inventory. In Shanxi, Henan and Hebei, the start-up rate of some hydrobenzene enterprises has not been restored, the downstream demand is limited, and crude benzene lacks downstream support. Supply side: This week, coking enterprises started stably, with a steady start-up rate of about 7-80%. The market is relatively abundant, and there is pressure on coking enterprises to deliver goods.
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Industry chain: crude oil rebounded on Thursday after falling this week. By Friday’s close, Brent was 5.93% lower than last Friday, while WTI was 2.34%. Influenced by the trade war at the beginning of the week, market concerns about slowing economic growth and reducing oil demand revived. EIA again lowered its global oil demand forecast and international oil prices fell. On Wednesday, EIA released data showing that U.S. crude oil and refined oil stocks had increased and international stocks had plunged as of August 2. On Thursday, Saudi Arabia said it would take measures to stabilize the oil market and stop oil prices falling and rebounding. Pure benzene: Sinopec lowered the listing price of 100 yuan/ton and 150 yuan/ton of pure benzene on the 5th and 8th respectively; Sinopec lowered the price next day by 250 yuan/ton compared with last week. This week, about 156,000 tons of pure benzene were in stock at the port, up from last week. Influenced by bad news such as crude oil, pure benzol and the softer downstream market, the traders are cautious and wait-and-see in the downstream market. Hydrobenzene aspect: Hydrobenzene enterprises started relatively stable this week, and the domestic market except Shanxi, Hebei and Henan basically started normal. The tender price of crude benzol in the main producing area dropped sharply this week, with a drop of about 200 yuan/ton. Market participants were short-sighted. The enthusiasm of entering the market downstream was not high and the transaction was limited. It further suppressed the hydrobenzene market. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of domestic hydrobenzene market in Shandong was 4500-4550 yuan/ton, and the market fell by about 200-250 yuan/ton.
3. Trend forecast:
Pure benzene market continues to hang upside down, the external market continues to fall, crude benzene demand and supply can not support, under the influence of multiple negative, crude benzene market is expected to continue to weaken next week.
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