Downstream demand is sluggish, disadvantaged finishing of diammonium phosphate (9.16-9.20)

I. price trend

 

According to the data of business associations, the domestic market price of diammonium phosphate remained stable this week. The average price of 64% diammonium is 2416 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 2416 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price is stable. On September 20, the DAP commodity index was 72.09, down 30.00% from the peak of 102.98 points in the cycle (2011-10-08), and up 1.22% from the low of 71.22 points on July 16, 2017. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

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II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic diammonium market is running steadily. The start-up rate of enterprises is still acceptable, and the volume of new orders is limited. At present, 64% of diammonium in Hubei is quoted 2300-2500 yuan/ton, 64% of diammonium in Shandong is quoted 2400-2550 yuan/ton, 64% of diammonium in Yunnan-Guizhou is quoted 2500 yuan/ton, and 64% of diammonium in Anhui is quoted 2400 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: raw material sulfur prices continued to fall, market negative bearish sentiment remains, the trend is weak. Inventory consumption is slow and the market is hard to find a good one. Phosphate ore market is running smoothly as a whole. Enterprises in several mainstream areas monitored by comprehensive business associations quote prices. The average price of domestic 30% grade phosphate ore is around 330-430 yuan/ton. This week, according to the monitoring of business associations, the domestic market for liquid ammonia is stable and small. Some enterprises in Shandong have slightly increased by 50-100 yuan/ton. At present, local ammonia volume is tense, and there is no pressure for enterprises to ship goods. However, manufacturers with large ammonia volume are mainly stable in price. The mainstream quotation in Shandong is 2900-3100 yuan/ton. Compound fertilizer enterprises are not ideal for purchasing, and the stock pressure is relatively high, and the autumn market is weak.

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Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 37 th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20), there were 2 kinds of commodities rising and falling in the list of fertilizer prices, 2 kinds of commodities falling, and 5 kinds of commodities rising and falling to 0. The main commodities rising were ammonium nitrate (1.68%) and liquid ammonia (1.04%). The main commodities falling were ammonium chloride (-1.05%) and urea (-0.73%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.1%. According to the business association price monitoring, in the 37th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20), phosphorus chemical prices rose and fell in the list of two commodities, fell in a total of 0 commodities, rose and fell in a total of three commodities. The main commodities that rose were phosphoric acid (2.53%) and yellow phosphorus (1.77%) with an average increase or decrease of 0.86% this week.

3. Future Market Forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts believe that this Tuesday’s ammonium market continued to be weak, low export prices, upstream and downstream game. Due to weak raw material sulfur market, limited support and lack of favorable market. Insufficient terminal demand, on-demand procurement. It is expected that the market of diammonium phosphate will continue to operate in a weak position in the later period.

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