According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PTA market fluctuated at a high level this week (March 16-20), first rising and then falling. As of March 20, the spot price of PTA in East China was 6673 yuan/ton, up 0.6% from the beginning of the week.
On the crude oil side, the issue of the US Iran conflict obstructing the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, and several oil producing countries near the Persian Gulf continue to reduce production. However, the market is concerned that the prolonged conflict will be detrimental to the economy and demand, and the weak characteristics of actual demand in the medium and long term are difficult to change. The upward momentum of oil prices has significantly weakened, but there is no sign of easing in the short term, and the supply gap still exists, providing stable support for oil prices. As of March 19th, the May settlement price of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $95.55 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures rose and the May settlement price was $108.65 per barrel.
From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, there will be no new production capacity injection in the PTA industry in 2026, and the industry’s production capacity is in a vacuum period, with no new pressure on the supply side itself. The significant increase in cost has led to a continuous decline in PTA processing fees, severely compressing the industry’s profit margins. Multiple PTA production companies have voluntarily reduced their equipment load or arranged for equipment maintenance. Currently, PTA operating loads are around 77%.
On the demand side, March is in the traditional “golden three” peak season of the textile and clothing industry, and downstream polyester factories are gradually increasing their operating rates. The demand for PTA is gradually being released, and there is still a willingness to replenish inventory at low prices. However, due to weak terminal demand and limited acceptance of PTA high prices, purchases under high prices are mainly for essential needs, making it difficult to form large-scale replenishment. Currently, priority is given to digesting low-priced raw materials that were previously hoarded.
Business analysts believe that there is still uncertainty in the geopolitical situation, with strong cost support. However, short-term maintenance facilities are expected to restart in the early stage, and downstream terminal demand is weak, resulting in negative demand feedback and dragging down the upward momentum of PTA. The short-term PTA market is fiercely contested, and the cost side remains the core influencing variable. It is expected that PTA prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level next week.
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