Since March, the domestic formaldehyde market has shown a trend of strong cost support, increased export momentum, loose and controllable supply, and strong demand. Driven by the significant increase in the price of raw material methanol, the overall fluctuation of formaldehyde prices is relatively strong, combined with an increase in export demand, forming a dual benefit. However, the constraint of weak downstream traditional demand is still quite obvious, and the market’s long short game situation is prominent, presenting a structural characteristic of “strong cost, weak demand” as a whole.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 23, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was reported at 1262 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 22.87% compared to the beginning of the month.
Raw material side: Methanol prices have risen significantly, and cost support has been fully utilized
Methanol is the main raw material for formaldehyde production, and its price fluctuations directly determine the direction of formaldehyde production costs. The significant increase in methanol prices this month, on March 20th, saw a surge of 42.73% from the beginning of the month to 3140 yuan/ton in Shengyi Society. The pressure of price increase continues to spread to the formaldehyde industry chain, driving formaldehyde factories to passively follow the price increase.
In the short term, the geopolitical premium of methanol still exists, and the tight supply situation is difficult to quickly ease. It is expected to continue to provide strong cost support for the formaldehyde market, and the downward space for formaldehyde prices is limited.
Export end: Demand continues to rise, easing domestic supply pressure
The demand for formaldehyde exports continues to grow, becoming an important force in driving market demand and alleviating domestic supply pressure. According to the latest data released by the customs, formaldehyde exports in January and February 2026 have laid a good growth foundation, and the export momentum continued to release in March, showing an overall benign trend of “year-on-year increase and month on month stable growth”. Specific data shows that in January 2026, China’s formaldehyde exports reached 236.3 tons, a significant increase of 106.74% year-on-year, with an export value of 962451 yuan; The export volume in February was 124.47 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.64%, with an export amount of 489681 yuan. Despite the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February, the export volume has declined compared to January, but it still maintains positive growth year-on-year. Coupled with the recovery of domestic production and smooth logistics in March, the export volume is expected to significantly rebound compared to February, further optimizing the domestic formaldehyde supply and demand balance.
The continuous increase in export demand has effectively digested some domestic production capacity, eased domestic supply pressure, and provided certain support for formaldehyde prices. This, combined with the rise in raw material prices, has created a dual benefit, jointly driving the strong volatility of the formaldehyde market this month.
Supply and demand fundamentals: overall loose and controllable supply, weak traditional demand
Supply side: Formaldehyde supply remains stable, overall loose and controllable, the total supply can meet market demand, and there is some room for adjustment, with no obvious supply gap. With the rise of temperature, the production enthusiasm of enterprises has increased, and the supply has gradually increased. However, the overall supply is relatively loose, which has formed certain constraints on the upward trend of prices.
In terms of demand, the support level is average and has not effectively responded to the cost increase, becoming the core factor restricting the significant rise in formaldehyde prices. The artificial board industry, as the largest consumer market for formaldehyde, has shown lackluster demand this month. Affected by the adjustment of the real estate industry and the mandatory upgrading of standards for artificial boards (E1 level elimination, E0/ENF level popularization), the consumption of formaldehyde per unit of board has decreased. Coupled with the fact that the spring decoration season has not yet fully started, artificial board companies have started production in a flat manner, with a mild willingness to receive goods and a multidimensional demand for essential purchases, which has limited driving effect on formaldehyde demand. The adhesive industry is affected by the sluggish demand for terminal real estate, and the demand is also showing a weak trend, further dragging down the traditional demand for formaldehyde.
comprehensive judgment
In the short term, methanol prices will continue to remain high due to the impact of the geopolitical situation, and formaldehyde cost support will continue to exist. Coupled with steady growth in export demand, it is expected that the formaldehyde market will maintain a strong and volatile trend, and the price increase depends on the fluctuation of methanol prices.
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