1、 Price trend
Business agency: “W” trend in the first half of MTBE market in 2019
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According to the data of business agency, the price of MTBE on December 31 was 5383 yuan / ton, 5.97% higher than 5080 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year.
2、 Market analysis
The price trend of domestic MTBE market in 2019 is highly related to that of upstream gasoline market, and the price trend is basically the same.
The first half of the year: domestic MTBE kept stable operation from January to May. As of the end of May, the domestic MTBE market price only rose 0.72% to 5116 yuan / ton, while the gasoline price rose 1.79% in the same period. First of all, in terms of crude oil, the overall trade relationship between China and the United States shows a gradual easing trend. In terms of gasoline, gasoline procurement and replenishment operations are basically carried out on demand. Second, in the first half of the year, the MTBE unit operating rate changed little, and the market price went with the market, not affected by the market supply and demand relationship.
| sulphamic acid |
Second half of the year: since late May, the price trend of domestic MTBE market follows the change of gasoline market, showing a “W” trend as a whole. The market prices of gasoline and MTBE fell to the lowest level in the second half of the year in the middle of June, down 8.92% and 13.39% respectively, and rose to the highest level in the second half of the year in late September, up 8.33% and 30.57% respectively. By the end of the year, they fell back to the level in the last half of May, up only 0.36% and 5.21% respectively. It can be seen that the price trend of domestic MTBE market is consistent with the change of gasoline market, but the change range of MTBE market price is larger than that of gasoline market. First of all, in May, Dalian Hengli 820000 T / a MTBE plant was started. Because of its large output and low export price, the MTBE market was deeply impacted. In April June, the refinery ushered in the centralized maintenance season. The contradiction between supply and demand in the MTBE market intensified, and the decline in the MTBE market was far greater than that in the gasoline market. Secondly, in September, compared with the gasoline market actively preparing for the golden nine silver ten peak demand season, MTBE market supply is insufficient, the number of export sales of major refineries is reduced. In September, Dalian Hengli MTBE has few export sales, and the import of MTBE is scarce, which leads to the shortage of MTBE.
On the whole, the market price of MTBE in 2019 is closely related to the price trend of the gasoline market and deeply influenced by the supply side of MTBE. It shows its own trend, and the shock range is far greater than that of the gasoline market.
3、 Future forecast
According to MTBE product analyst of energy branch of business society, future trade disputes may enter into normalization, crude oil market demand will be restricted, and the price center of gasoline market will fall steadily in 2020. Therefore, in 2020, the price center of MTBE market will follow the price center of gasoline market and the fluctuation range will further shrink.
| Sulfamic acid |