1、 Price trend
According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of March 20, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9760 yuan / ton, with a 1.91% month on month drop in price and an 8.07% year-on-year increase.
2、 Market analysis
Product: domestic BDO market weakness consolidation this week. The factory has a strong attitude towards the market, reducing the load or parking, and the price is on the high side. However, due to the recent collapse of crude oil and the spread of foreign epidemics, the demand of domestic and foreign terminal industries continues to be depressed, which leads to the accumulation of inventory in most downstream industries and short-term negative growth without support. The start-up of the downstream PBT was slow, and other downstream PBT was also in low negative operation. Under the cost pressure, the downstream market pressure is serious, and more rigid spot small single replenishment is needed. At present, there is abundant spot supply in the field. With the restart of Meike, there is strong bearish mood in the middle and lower reaches. Some manufacturers are in the shipping mentality and negotiate with each other in a narrow range. In order to reduce the inventory pressure and stabilize the price, some factories released the information of parking and maintenance again, but the downstream game mentality is still the same.
| Sulfamic acid 99.80% |
In terms of devices, this week, crane coal load is 50%, and there is a maintenance plan in April; Kaixiang recently stopped for maintenance, and the restart time is uncertain; Meike started on March 13, and the load is 50%; Tianye phase I 30000 ton device is in normal operation, The restart time of other devices is to be determined; Dongyuan will stop for maintenance on March 5, and it is expected to start in early April; Tunhe will stop for 50% of the first phase, and the second phase; Ronghe will stop for maintenance on February 28; Xinye will load 40%; Shaanxi chemical will load 60%, and there will be maintenance plan at the end of March and early April.
Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol, the overall methanol market this week showed a downward trend, with a general trading atmosphere. The main stream of Inner Mongolia fell to 1450-1550 yuan / ton of ex factory spot exchange; the upstream factories in Northern Shaanxi were forced to make profits under the pressure of shipment, and the current main stream transaction fell to 1450 yuan / ton of ex factory spot exchange nearby, providing 40-50 yuan / ton for large orders of olefin factories; the main stream of Guanzhong region at the beginning of the week was reported to 1500-1650 yuan / ton, the low-end shipment was smooth, the high-end transaction was not completed temporarily, and the lower half of the week continued to decline along with the downstream receiving prices such as northern Shandong As a result, the atmosphere in Guanzhong is becoming weaker, and the current mainstream negotiation is further reduced to around 1500-1570 yuan / ton; the mainstream in Xinjiang is down to around 1050 yuan / ton, and some downstream areas have bottom reading psychology, so the delivery and investment atmosphere is better than that of last week. The main source of goods outside Xinjiang is Baofeng and other olefin factories, and Xinjiang to Ningxia is sent to reference 1430 yuan / ton.
Calcium carbide: this week, the domestic calcium carbide market first stabilized and then fell. After a rapid decline in the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the early stage, the production enterprises are facing a loss situation. The enterprises hold a stable wait-and-see position. The ex factory price in Wuhai area is maintained at the mainstream of 2600 yuan / ton. However, in recent years, the inventory in Wuhai area has gradually accumulated. Affected by the inventory pressure, the factory price of domestic calcium carbide began to decline in recent days. However, through investigation, it can be found that the arrival volume of calcium carbide in North and central China has obviously contracted. There are two main reasons. One is the contraction of supply of goods in the Urumqi League this week, and the other is the list of market trade supply and investment atmosphere.
| Sulfamic acid 99.50% |
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil plummeted again, the epidemic spread abroad, domestic and foreign terminal demand was limited, downstream construction continued to be weak, and a large number of inventories accumulated, negative and no power. At present, although the on-site construction is at a low level, the BDO inventory in the early stage is difficult to digest, and Merck is restarted, with incremental expectations; the mentality of the middle and lower reaches is intensified, and the market price is still depressed, but the supplier is strong, and the game continues. In order to reduce the inventory pressure and stabilize the price, some factories released the information of parking and maintenance again, but the imbalance between supply and demand is difficult to ease. BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will continue to be in a weak situation next week, with risk reduction, focusing on the main downstream start-up and changes in the mentality of suppliers and demanders.
| Sulfamic acid |