The supply and demand pattern is hard to change in a short time, and PVC market has a long way to go

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitored by the business agency (average ex factory price of SG5 in carbide process), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on March 18 was 6187.5 yuan / ton, down 0.6% compared with the previous day, and down 2.56% compared with the same period last year. On March 18, the PVC commodity index was 78.41, down 0.47 points from yesterday, down 21.59% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 34.56% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Products: the domestic PVC market fell slightly on Wednesday, mainly digesting the previous gains. The trend of PVC futures affected by the recent crude oil market slump is not good, but for the time being, the impact is not significant. The spot market volatility is limited and slightly volatile, but the market trading is weak. With the end enterprises returning to work one after another, the demand has increased to a certain extent, but some enterprises are still facing difficulties in returning to work, the overall operating rate is low, most of them are just in need of replenishment, the weak demand end is difficult to form a strong support for the PVC market, and the manufacturer’s sales pressure is still great. PVC enterprises have gradually increased the operating rate, continued to increase inventory, abundant supply in the market, and the situation of oversupply is hard to change in a short period of time. At the same time, the cost end of calcium carbide is strongly supported. PVC enterprises are mostly in a stable price mentality and wait-and-see attitude. Some enterprises cut prices and make profits in shipment. However, the market as a whole is still in a downturn, and it is difficult to get a good boost. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of March 18, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 5950-6350 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is around 6080-6210 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is about 6080-6230 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is around 6050-6100 yuan / ton. The real deal can be negotiated.

 

In terms of Futures: the main PVC v2005 contract fell in shock, closing at 6055 yuan / ton, compared with – 110 yuan on the previous trading day; trading volume was 120748, + 44667; positions were 152462, – 7638, base difference was 95 yuan, + 100 yuan; 5-9 price difference was – 120 yuan, – 0 yuan.

 

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Industry chain: on March 16, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell sharply, falling below $30 per barrel again, and the main contract was 28.70 yuan / barrel, down $3.03 (- 9.55%). Saudi Arabia and Russia have had serious disagreements over production reduction agreements, which led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices. It fell to its lowest level since 2017. Unable to support the price of ethylene, so business analysts expect the price of ethylene to keep a narrow decline in the future. In terms of calcium carbide, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly, and the future market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region in mid March might fall slightly.

 

 

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on March 18, 2020, there was a total of one kind of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which natural rubber (0.21%) rose. There are 10 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and the top three products were cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber (- 2.86%), styrene butadiene rubber (- 2.69%) and PA6 (- 1.71%). The average price of this day was – 0.76%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

PVC analysts of the business club think that the current PVC market is weak and the overall market is slightly depressed. The trend of futures is not good, the awareness of spot price is strong, but the pattern of supply over demand is hard to change in a short time, and the price is slightly reduced and interest is shipped. It is expected that the PVC market will not improve in the short term. The future market should pay more attention to the trend of crude oil, futures and downstream resumption.

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