The price has gone up by more than 10%. Can monoammonium phosphate go up?

1、 Price trend

 

In recent years, monoammonium phosphate has been rising for several consecutive days, up more than 10%, and this month has risen 7.02%. So far, the commodity index of monoammonium phosphate on March 22 is 71.41, which is flat with that of yesterday, 29.18% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and 15.01% higher than the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Products: the operating rate of enterprises has been greatly increased, and Hubei enterprises have started to operate in succession. At present, the factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei Province is 1950-2100 yuan / ton, and that of 60% mainstream powdered ammonium is 2150-2250 yuan / ton. The market in Henan province maintains stable operation. The ex factory price of 55% ammonium powder is 1950-2100 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 58% ammonium powder is 2050-2150 yuan / ton. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1950-2100 yuan / ton, which is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is 1850-2100 yuan / ton.

 

Industrial chain: the sulfur market has risen sharply recently. Hubei phosphate fertilizer manufacturers started one after another, the supply of phosphate fertilizer increased, fertilizer spring ploughing led to the improvement of sulfur demand, effectively boosting the overall confidence of the market. The enthusiasm of the downstream market entry procurement is weakened and mainly on demand, the buyer and the seller intend to keep the price difference, and the on-site trading and investment are mostly stuck on the sidelines. In addition to the price stabilization of individual refineries, the prices of refineries in other regions are increased according to their own shipping situation. This week, the phosphorus ore market fluctuated slightly, and the overall stable operation is the main factor. At present, the phosphorus ore market in Guizhou has basically recovered, but the operating rate of production enterprises is not high, and low and medium load production is mainly for self use.

 

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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 11th week of 2020 (3.16-3.20), there are 15 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are isopropanol (26.40%), acetic anhydride (6.37%) and dichloromethane (5.38%). There are 39 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 14 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 16.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 17.60%), chloroform (- 15.79%) and crude benzene (- 14.52%). This week’s average was – 1.62%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to analysts of monoammonium phosphate of business association, the price of monoammonium phosphate has reached its peak at present, and the sharp rise in raw materials has gradually stabilized. The demand of downstream compound fertilizer is lower than that of last week. It is expected that the price of monoammonium phosphate will be stable in the later stage, and the possibility of rising again is low or gradually falling. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of raw materials and demand.

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