Aluminum market trend
According to the data of business agency, as of March 31, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 11500 yuan / ton, 14553.33 yuan / ton compared with the average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), with a fall of 20.98% in the first quarter, of which the average market price in March fell by 1686.67 yuan / ton, with a fall of 12.79% in the month.
Main factors of stage influence
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January to February: affected by the Spring Festival and the domestic epidemic, the upstream and downstream operating rates have moved down, the production capacity has moved down relatively, and the domestic demand practices have moved down. However, due to its continuous production characteristics (high cost of parking and maintenance), the output of raw aluminum is relatively lower than that of other months, with a dynamic surplus.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February 2020, the output of ten kinds of non-ferrous metals in China was 9.354 million tons, an increase of 2.2% year on year. Among them, the original aluminum output was 5.847 million tons, up 2.4% year on year; the aluminum output was 10.451 million tons, down 13.0% year on year; the aluminum output was 5.906 million tons, down 12.5% year on year.
From January to February, before the traditional Spring Festival, the return to work was delayed due to the superimposed epidemic situation, the delivery and investment were light, and the aluminum price moved down slightly.
March: affected by the outbreak of foreign epidemics, the crude oil plummeted, the market panic spread, and the metal plate of futures market became loose. After the silver plummeted, the non-ferrous plate fell sharply. Based on the panic sentiment in the capital market and the pessimistic demand expectation in the market, the aluminum price has moved down sharply.
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Rising cost factors
At present, the price of aluminum ingots touches the cost of some manufacturers. Since late March, there have been about 6 domestic enterprises (including the plan) that have concentrated on production reduction and maintenance, affecting the capacity scale of 445000 tons / year. Although in the first quarter, Inner Mongolia Mengtai, Inner Mongolia Guyang, Guangyuan Zhongfu (phase I), baikuangtianlin, Yunnan Aluminum Heqing (phase II) and other enterprises have a total capacity of about 1.1 million tons of electrolytic aluminum put into production, the expected operating rate will not be too high.
Expected market outlook
According to the historical price trend, the current price is not high and the cost is strongly supported. In the second quarter, the demand is expected to turn warm. It is expected that the near-term rate will be stable and strong.
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