1、 Price trend
According to the data in the bulk list of business associations, on March 1, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 10633 yuan / ton, on March 31, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 9000 yuan / ton, and the price fell 15.36% in March.
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2、 Market analysis
Product: in March, caprolactam was negatively affected by peripheral news of crude oil and chemical industry, and its price fell in the whole month. The price center of pure benzene at the cost end continued to move down and the port inventory accumulated. Imports of pure benzene fell sharply, the market negative mentality is heavier. Downstream products are dragged down by weak terminal demand, and inventory release is slow. At the same time, the upstream and demand are weakening, and the bad air is superimposed. Settlement price of liquid caprolactam enterprises in March. : the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8200 yuan / ton, cash is delivered from the factory, the capacity of the manufacturer is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 9300 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 9200 yuan / ton, and the 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 9200 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted.
Industrial chain: in March, with the resumption of domestic production, the overall operating rate of raw material pure benzene picked up. Although domestic public events have been effectively controlled, large-scale outbreaks abroad have led to a sharp decline in crude oil and related energy chemicals. The downstream demand is weak, and the release of pure benzene capacity is blocked; in addition, the external market plummeted, and the low price hit, and the domestic pure benzene fell seriously. However, crude oil is low in price, with less cost constraints and profit margin. In March, the market of PA6 in China fell all the way, with a large price reduction. At present, the price of PA6 in China continues to decline, and the inventory consumption of slicing enterprises is slow. The downstream return to work rate is not high, mainly adopt the strategy of bargain hunting and replenishment. The market atmosphere was negative, business confidence was hit, and the mission was completed by the end of the month. Other sources said that the recent international health events caused panic in Europe, foreign chemical supply difficulties, plasticizer orders were cancelled. There are many difficulties in the industrial chain. It is expected that PA6 market will not improve in the short term.
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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in March 2020, there are 24 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 7 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase are isopropanol (55.64%), methylic acid (20.51%) and ammonium chloride (20.48%). There are 59 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 46 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 52.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 49.82%), crude benzene (- 36.94%) and toluene (- 33.67%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 8.47%.
3、 Future forecast
Caprolactam analysts believe that the raw material pure benzene fell continuously in March due to the sharp drop in oil prices, with significant negative cost side. Liquid caprolactam fell sharply, while solid caprolactam fell with liquid. Downstream users lack confidence and demand shrinks. In the short term, the market is difficult to change, and caprolactam market is expected to remain sluggish in April.
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