1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin:
(Figure: P value curve of epichlorohydrin product)
2、 Market analysis:
Product: according to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises as of April 9 was 8900 yuan / ton, down 1.48% compared with April 1, up 0.75% compared with April 8, and the market of epichlorohydrin rebounded slightly on April 9. The price of raw propylene has been rising steadily. At present, some epichlorohydrin plants have been shut down for maintenance, and the low price of downstream users just needs to replenish the warehouse for goods preparation has driven the market of epichlorohydrin to pick up slightly. At present, the quotation of traders varies, and the mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin market on the 9th is 8000-9200 yuan / ton.
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On April 9, the epichlorohydrin commodity index was 62.85, up 0.47 points from yesterday, down 53.00% from 133.71 (2019-10-29), the highest point in the cycle, and up 34.15% from 46.85, the lowest point on September 7, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
Industrial chain: on April 9, the market price of the upstream propylene in Shandong increased steadily. On September 9, the market transaction has risen to 5700-5800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is around 5700 yuan / ton. Affected by the international situation, the international crude oil market last month repeatedly reported new lows, but the market continued to rise after a sharp fluctuation on the 2nd. Now, many countries may introduce production reduction policies to improve the crude oil market and increase the propylene price. In addition, PP futures rose significantly, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good. It is expected that propylene prices will continue to rise in recent days. The downstream epoxy resin, supported by the production cost, overlaps the low price and just needs replenishment of the downstream terminal, the market negotiation atmosphere is more active, and the epoxy resin stops falling and returns to stability.
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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 20 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on April 9, 2020, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top 3 commodities are crude benzene (20.34%), hydrobenzene (7.95%) and acetone (4.19%). There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the first three products falling were aniline (- 4.43%), hydrochloric acid (- 3.92%) and calcium carbide (- 3.80%). The average price of this day is 0.5%.
3、 Future forecast:
According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business club, supported by the rising price of raw propylene and the reduction of the supply side, combined with the positive demand for replenishment in the downstream market, the market of epichlorohydrin may maintain a positive trend in the short term, but under the influence of the overall market environment, the operators are cautious and wait-and-see attitude, and the specific trend needs more attention to the guidance of market news
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