Data shows that the natural rubber commodity index on April 29 was 28.43, down 0.12 points from yesterday, 71.57% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01), and 4.22% higher than the lowest point of 27.28 on April 02, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
As shown in the above figure, from the beginning of January to April 2020, the natural rubber market as a whole shows a small surge and continues to fluctuate. There is a small V-shaped rebound in the middle of the downward trend. The May Day holiday horse is coming, and the current market change is relatively small. According to the data of natural rubber (standard 1) in East China monitored by the business agency, the main quotation of Baodao whole milk in April 1, 2018-19 is about 9294 yuan / ton, and the main quotation in April 30 is 9600 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 3.29%; among them, the highest price of this month is 9810 yuan / ton on April 20, the lowest price is 9200 yuan / ton on April 2, with a monthly maximum amplitude of 6.63%. As a whole, on March 18, 2020, the main contract of Shanghai Rubber broke 10000 yuan. On March 30, the lowest price in Shanghai rubber market was 9115 yuan / ton, which again set a new low. As soon as possible, the price rose slightly by more than 3% in April, but the price of Shanghai Rubber this month is still in the lowest range in 10 years.
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Factor analysis:
Supply: in China, factors such as delayed rubber cutting in production areas, dry weather, insect disease, poor demand and low rubber price have a great impact on rubber cutting. At present, China’s domestic rubber areas have not been cut in large quantities, even if there are cuts, the amount is very small, the willingness to cut is not strong, and the production of new rubber has not affected the current market. It is generally believed that the domestic cutting will be postponed to the middle and late May. Rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia: the epidemic situation is still deteriorating, and currently in the cut-off period, so it is more likely to delay the cut. Thailand: decided to extend the emergency decree until the end of May. It is said that the production and transportation of Tianjiao in Thailand is relatively normal. Malaysia: the port of Penang is reopened to facilitate the export of rubber in southern Thailand. India: the current situation is grim, and announced the discontinuation of Chinese kits. Cambodia: according to the report of the General Administration of rubber, the average price per ton of rubber in the first quarter of 2020 is US $1420. In the first three months, China’s rubber exports reached US $75.34 million, and Cambodia’s rubber exports were mainly to China, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia and other countries.
Inventory: data shows that as of April 26, the natural rubber inventory of the previous period was 239690 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 235210 tons, 1109 tons and 1740 tons less than that of last week respectively; from the perspective of the rubber inventory pressure of the exchange, the full latex Ru inventory was stable, and the pressure was relatively small, the NR inventory of rubber 20 climbed, and the pressure gradually increased. The data shows that the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone has increased slightly, and the rubber trade inventory outside the zone has exceeded 800000 tons, a new high since the statistics. The inventory of Tianjiao in the downstream factory is about 15-60 days, and the manufacturer’s purchase intention is not strong.
Import and export: according to customs data, in March 2020, China imported 62000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), up 3.6% year on year. From January to March 2020, China imported 1.659 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), up 5.6% from 1.571 million tons in the same period of 2019.
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Demand: in terms of tyres, China’s output of outer tyres in March was 71.404 million, down 7.8% year on year, according to the National Bureau of statistics. From January to March, the total number of outer tubes produced was 152059000, down 19.4% year on year, which was mainly affected by the impact of the epidemic in the first quarter on China. Since mid to late March 2020, the severe situation of foreign epidemic situation has affected half steel tire and all steel tire in European and American market. The overseas orders of China have been cancelled or delayed delivery, and the export demand of domestic tires has declined significantly, which has seriously affected the production of domestic tire manufacturers. Data shows that as of the week of April 23, the operating rate of domestic semi steel tire manufacturers was 58.08%, down 1.64% month on month, down 7.63% year on year; the operating rate of all steel tire manufacturers was 64.76%, up 0.72% month on month, down 6.40% year on year, and the weak demand side led to the weakness of overall rubber consumption. In terms of automobiles, from January to March 2020, China’s automobile production and sales totaled 3.474 million and 3.672 million, a year-on-year decrease of 45.2% and 42.4%; among them, China’s automobile sales volume in March was 1.43 million, a year-on-year decrease of 43.3%, a significant increase compared with 80% in February. With the situation of the overseas epidemic becoming more and more severe, HS Markit lowered its forecast of global auto sales. The Agency predicted that global new car sales would drop 22% to 70.3 million vehicles this year compared with the same period last year, and the new car sales in China, the world’s largest auto market, would drop 15.5% to 21 million vehicles this year. According to the forecast of geyser Automobile Research Institute, the retail sales of passenger vehicles in China in the second quarter of 2020 is expected to be 13% lower than that in the second quarter of 2019. At present, more than ten cities in China have introduced incentive measures to encourage car purchase, so as to promote the car market back on track as soon as possible. Some institutions predict that under the new round of monetary easing tide of the global central bank and the stimulation of various policies, the domestic automobile sales market and the main foreign automobile sales market will recover in the second quarter.
Substitutes: US crude oil futures collapsed on 20th of this month, once a negative value. Under special circumstances, global demand shrank, storage capacity was in an emergency, and investors’ pessimism was serious. Affected by this, chemical products in the domestic futures market fell sharply, with a significant decline in Shanghai rubber. The main contracts of Shanghai Rubber fell 3.2% to 9800 yuan per ton in 2009, while the main energy contracts of the previous period fell 3.1% to 8045 yuan per ton in 2006. But then the rise of crude oil led to the rebound of chemical products and rubber prices. Among them, crude oil is the upstream of butadiene, and also the upstream of synthetic rubber. Synthetic rubber can be used as a partial substitute of natural rubber. The rise and fall of butadiene determines the purchase and use of synthetic rubber by tire factories, especially the rare trend of international crude oil this month, which has a direct and obvious impact on rubber.
Future forecast:
According to the analysis of business association, from the perspective of domestic and international cutting situation, the current output may be the minimum period of this year. From the downstream situation, it is possible that in the next few months, some foreign countries will force “economic recovery” in spite of the epidemic. In the current special period, the future economic situation is particularly unknown, and the epidemic control situation has become the most direct factor determining the demand. In the aftermarket, if the automobile consumption situation changes, the demand pulls, and the Tianjiao market recovers; but if the mandatory recovery, the demand does not really pull the consumption, coupled with the later cutting, the output and inventory increase, then the Tianjiao market may be more difficult to turn over.
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