1、 Price trend
In April, the decline of domestic butadiene market deepened. According to the monitoring price of the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the month was 5127 yuan / ton, and the domestic butadiene market price at the end of the month was 3890 yuan / ton, with a 24.14% drop in the month. The price was 50.35% lower than the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
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Products: in April, the domestic butadiene market experienced a low-end shock after a sharp decline. At the end of March and the first half of April, there was a large pressure on the external market supply, and the transaction price of some sources of goods was slightly lower, dragging the domestic spot market. In addition, the supply of domestic manufacturers is stable, the trend of downstream synthetic rubber market is not good, and the weak situation of crude oil and bulk commodities is superimposed. The external news and supply and demand fundamentals of butadiene market are all short, and the market continues to decline. In the middle of the month, after the market fell below the 4001st line, the lower reaches of the market searched for bargains and made up their positions. In the middle of the month, the market gradually stopped falling. With the supply price of Sinopec rising, other suppliers rose, and the market rebounded slightly. However, due to insufficient transaction follow-up and crude oil falling to a new low, businesses are under pressure.
In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s East China butadiene price has been reduced by 1200 yuan / ton to 4000 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; Nanjing Chengzhi 10 The 10000 t / a oxidation and dehydrogenation unit was shut down on April 7, and the shutdown status is continuing at present; the 100000 t / a oxidation and dehydrogenation unit of sippon Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is now in normal operation after being restarted at the end of March, and the manufacturer plans to shut down in early May, please continue to pay attention to the details; the price of shenhuaning coal butadiene fell by 770 yuan / ton to 3500 yuan / ton on a month on month basis, and the 64000 T / a butadiene unit is planned to shut down for maintenance for about 40 days on May 5.
Industrial chain: SBR: in April, the domestic market price of SBR rose first and then fell. At the beginning of this month, the international crude oil rebounded, and Tianjiao futures also explored the range, the news surface obviously improved the mentality of the styrene butadiene industry; in addition, the raw material butadiene market stabilized after the fall, the market trading was significantly better than that at the end of last month, the industry actively entered the market to make up for the empty orders in the early stage, and some of the off-site idle funds entered the market, the market speculation atmosphere gradually rose, the first-hand single opening households did not intend to lower out, and the broad price increase became the main factor Supply prices also take the opportunity to rise. However, terminal enterprises tend to keep a wait-and-see attitude. Affected by international public health events, their export orders have been greatly reduced. They only need to buy styrene butadiene rubber to maintain rigidity, and have limited acceptance of high-end offers. Since the middle of the month, the market inquiry atmosphere has become weak again, the quotation of merchants has become loose, and the quotation of high price has fallen down; at the end of the month, under the pressure of trading and investment, most of the manufacturers hang upside down for shipment, and the supply price of the sales company has declined, while the price of raw material butadiene continues to rise, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere has risen again, waiting for the market to restart after the festival.
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Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: the price of raw material butadiene is at a low level, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber starts at a high level, and the spot inventory is growing; downstream factories purchase cautiously, and the purchase price tends to be more depressed in the declining market. The ex factory and market prices of China’s cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell to a historical low in early April. After the middle of the year, with the early delivery of empty orders, hot money entering the market to prepare goods, product enterprises and other replenishment to take goods, the social inventory pressure slightly shifted; the speculation atmosphere gradually rose, the market premium increased, and the supply price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber increased. By the end of the last ten days of the business, the replenishment of middlemen and arbitrage market was over, and then, in case of negative factors such as the price of crude oil hanging upside down, the speculation heat of the cis-1-polybutadiene rubber market fell, and PetroChina South China took the lead in falling the factory supply price, and the market offer also fell. At the end of the month, various sales companies announced the news of new price drop in May, but when the price of butadiene went up, the market fell into wait-and-see situation again.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in April 2020, there are 39 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 26 kinds of commodities with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 29.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase rate are acetone (77.02%), acrylic acid (21.76%) and hydrogenated benzene (20.86%). There are 45 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 21 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 23.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are ethylene (- 31.64%), butadiene (- 24.14%) and hydrochloric acid (- 22.37%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.37%.
3、 Future forecast
On the positive side, the domestic unit maintenance, the external supply pressure eased slightly in May, the start-up of the synthetic rubber industry was high and some units were expected to restart. On the negative side, the inventory of the downstream synthetic rubber industry continued to be high, the supply of domestic butadiene trade link was still relatively abundant, and the foreign trade orders of the end tire and products industry shrank. In May, the northern manufacturers Ningmei, Zhongsha and Yangba in East China all have parking maintenance plans, and Sinopec’s internal supply is tight and balanced; meanwhile, the starting load of the main downstream synthetic rubber industry is acceptable, which supports the domestic butadiene spot market. The short-term market is dominated by suppliers. With the firm supply price, the market follows a small increase. However, businesses expect that the arrival of cargo in the second half of the month, and the terminal demand for tires and automobiles continue to be depressed, which makes it difficult to effectively relieve the inventory pressure in the circulation of synthetic rubber, and still drag the butadiene market. Overall, it is expected that the supply and demand will slightly improve in the first half of May, and the market may be consolidated. However, the transaction follow-up is insufficient, the expectation of cargo arrival at the port, and the trend of synthetic rubber market drag down. In the second half of May, the market may regain its weakness. It is suggested to pay attention to the internal and external transactions, and be cautious in position.
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