Price trend:
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According to the data of the bulk list of business associations, the domestic ABS market stabilized in the first ten days of July, and the spot price of the market was slightly adjusted. As of July 10, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13250.00 yuan / ton, which was in line with the average price at the beginning of the month.
Factor analysis:
In terms of styrene upstream of ABS, according to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, the average offer of sample enterprises was 5400 yuan / ton on Friday, July 10, and the price was basically unchanged at the level at the beginning of the month, down 39.78% compared with the same period last year. It is reported that the total inventory in East China has decreased by 3.25% to 370200 tons. But inventories are still high. In the short term, the oversupply has not changed. In terms of domestic styrene, styrene was restarted and increased in July, some enterprises’ inventory increased slightly, and the overall output was basically the same as last week. At the beginning of the month, the average operating rate of styrene in China was 82.2%, which was 81.99, down 0.21%. At present, the spot sales pressure of styrene is still large, and it is expected that styrene will be mainly horizontal finishing. Domestic demand should pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price;
In terms of ABS upstream acrylonitrile, the domestic market continues to be weak recently, the operating rate of production enterprises is further improved, and the supply pressure in the market is expected to further increase. Downstream cautious stock, just need to buy, social inventory accumulation risk increased. There is resistance to shipment, the actual transaction center is down, and the acrylonitrile market is expected to be weak;
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The domestic butadiene market rose slightly in the first ten days of July. According to the price monitored by the business agency, the average price of butadiene in the domestic market as of July 10 was about 3495 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.64%, a month on month decrease of 8.04% and a year-on-year decrease of 58.67% compared with the same period of last year. In the near future, there is a certain demand for butadiene downstream, in addition to the suspension of online export sales of northern Huajin during the cycle, a small number of high turnover sources boosted the atmosphere of the spot market, and speculation went up. With the rising market in northern China and the news that Shandong Huayu polybutadiene rubber plant is expected to restart, businesses in East China are reluctant to sell at low prices and offer high prices. In the middle of the week, the supply side of South Korea and China’s domestic prices slightly supported. Under the support of short-term supplier and external information, it is difficult to find low-cost goods in the market, but high-end prices in the market are waiting for downstream inquiry to follow up, so it is difficult to make large-scale transactions. Business community butadiene analysts predict that under the guidance of suppliers, the market offer may remain relatively strong, but the transaction follow-up situation is still worthy of attention; the pressure of market continued upward is obvious, and it is suggested to pay close attention to whether the mainstream supplier price policy can bring sustained boost to the market;
In the first ten days of July, the domestic ABS market was running smoothly. Although the operating rate of domestic ABS petrochemical plant was almost full load operation, the downstream demand sentiment was fair, and there was just a demand support in the field. The existing inventory is still at a low level, and the lack of on-site spot circulation is the driving force to support the prices of merchants. At present, downstream factories are mainly cautious in stock operation, and some brands are still up in a narrow range.
Future forecast:
Business agency analysts believe: early July ABS market stable, the price of each brand narrow adjustment. Cost side of the upstream three material trend is not good, the cost side support is weak. At present, the spot supply of ABS is still less, the downstream is cautious about high price ABS goods, just need to take the order, but the overall demand support is still strong. At present, the profit margin of merchants is limited. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will continue to rise in the near future.
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