According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of August 7, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in mainstream areas was around 11200 yuan / ton, which was increased by 300 yuan / ton or 2.80% compared with the price at the end of July. Compared with the price on July 1, the average price increased by 733 yuan / ton, or 6.57%. On July 29, the n-propanol commodity index was 100.63, flat with yesterday, down 0.59% from 101.23 (December 12, 2013), and 27.62% higher than the lowest point of 78.85 on November 05, 2015. (Note: period refers to December 1, 2013 to now)
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In July, the domestic n-propanol market as a whole was stable and the operation was dominated
In July, the domestic market of n-propanol was stable as a whole, and some dealers adjusted their prices according to the narrow range of inventory, which had little impact on the overall market trend. Downstream demand is fair, n-propanol inventory is low, raw material support market mentality is good, the business offer is firm and stable.
The demand of lower reaches increased in August
In August, the overall inventory of the previous few days was low, the downstream demand was better than that at the end of July, and the shipment volume increased. The dealers mainly kept part of the inventory in the early stage, and the price remained stable. Until the 7th, the market price of n-propanol went with the market, and the quoted prices in many regions increased. The domestic market of n-propanol in Shandong Province increased slightly, and the ex factory price of n-propanol bulk water was 10700-11000 yuan / T At the end of July, it was higher than 200 yuan. The domestic n-propanol market in Nanjing is running smoothly, and the bulk water is around 10800-11100 yuan / T. in Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., the normal operation of n-propanol production unit is normal, and the external offer of n-propanol is 11000 yuan / T (bulk water), and the price is the same as that at the end of July. Dealers in different regions still have reservation on the price. It is not easy to monitor the price. As a result, the specific negotiation situation may be different. There are differences in each region. The actual negotiation is the main one. The future market needs to wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment.
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In terms of raw materials, in August, the external market of ethylene was stable and fell slightly. At present, on the 6th, the Asian ethylene market remained stable, with CFR Northeast Asia offering 775-785 USD / T and CFR Southeast Asia offering 710-720 USD / T. In the European ethylene market, the price quoted by FD in northwest Europe is 749-758 US dollars / ton, and CIF in northwest Europe is 690-698 dollars / ton. In the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $343-361 / T. recently, the US ethylene market is mainly up slightly, and the demand is fair.
On crude oil, the US WTI crude oil futures market price fell on June 6, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.95/barrel, down $0.24. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 45.17 US dollars / barrel, down 0.08 US dollars.
Production capacity of n-propanol in China from 2015 to 2019
In 2019, the output of n-propanol in China will be about 92000 tons, and the operating rate will be about 43%. Due to the double effects of long-term shutdown of some units and dumping of n-propanol from abroad, the overall operating rate of n-propanol industry in China has always remained at a very low level. In the future, it is hoped that with the implementation of the anti-dumping policy of the Ministry of Commerce, it will be improved.
The supply and demand of n-propanol will remain high in the future
At present, the atmosphere of supply and demand in the domestic n-propanol market has improved, and the shipment volume has increased compared with the previous period. According to the analysts of the propyl alcohol industry of the business association, the market of n-propanol is mainly at a high level in the short term. Under the favorable atmosphere of inquiry, the business operators have more confidence in the offer, which does not rule out the possibility that the quotations of the secondary market will rise slightly again.
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