Price trend:
According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic ABS market was active in October, and most of the spot prices in the market showed a strong trend. As of November 1, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 17500.00 yuan / ton, which was 17.06% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.
Factor analysis:
ABS upstream styrene, domestic Styrene Market in October, the whole month positive rise. In terms of inventory, total inventory in East China was 237300 tons at the end of October, down 2.14% on a weekly basis. The domestic operating rate was about 85.51%, maintaining a high level. In addition to the tight spot supply in South China, the styrene supply in other regions was moderate. In the next month, supply is still expected to be tight, the demand is high and stable, and the market mentality is strong. At the end of the month, crude oil fell sharply, and styrene cost support collapsed. Pure benzene inventory high, at the same time the demand decreases, the price rise lacks sufficient support. External news negative chemical industry chain, coupled with the Asian Styrene Market Trading atmosphere is weak, drag styrene up. However, on the whole, the arrival of imported goods in the later period is relatively small, the wharf continues to reduce the warehouse, the domestic supply is tightening, and the downstream keeps operating at high load, and the demand for styrene is strong. It is expected that styrene will be mainly concentrated in the near future.
ABS upstream acrylonitrile, due to the sharp weakening of raw material propylene price in October, acrylonitrile market sentiment was hit. Far upstream of crude oil, Libya production and transportation recovery, supply has a large volume. In addition, the market was worried about the rebound of the epidemic situation, which inhibited the demand. The overall trend of international oil price in October was not good, and the cost side support of acrylonitrile was not ideal. However, the operating rate of downstream acrylic fiber and other industries remained at a high level after the festival, which had a certain basis for acrylonitrile consumption. On the supply side, it is reported that some acrylonitrile production lines have maintenance plans in October, which is good for spot prices. It is expected that acrylonitrile will be stronger in the near future, but the price increase will be limited.
In October, the domestic butadiene market continued to rise, and the main manufacturers continued to raise their ex factory quotations, and the butadiene market quotation in some regions exceeded 10000 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of October 31, 2020, the average ex factory price of butadiene in China was 9200 yuan / ton, an increase of 45.14% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and the price reached a new high point in the year. Affected by the higher profits of natural rubber futures, the price of synthetic rubber in the downstream of butadiene rose significantly. In the second half of 2020, the demand for rubber will recover strongly. The downstream tire industry and rubber products industry of synthetic rubber will start to recover gradually, and the output will gradually rise. The demand for synthetic rubber will form a support, and the whole industrial chain will be favorable for linkage. At present, the sentiment of butadiene market is slowly digesting and gradually transiting to a stable finishing state. The external price continued to rise at a high level, while the domestic market was weak. The natural rubber futures strengthened, and the upstream and downstream products continued to rise strongly. The butadiene analysts of the business association predicted that the domestic butadiene market would be mainly sorted out at a high level in the short term.
In October, the domestic ABS market was strong and the spot price continued to rise. In terms of supply, domestic ABS supply is generally tight, and the pattern remains unchanged. It is reported that the arrival volume in South China is relatively large, which has a negative impact on the profit margin, but there is a large gap in terminal demand at present. Domestic major household appliance enterprises, automobile industry and other consumption remained high, aggravating the market supply tension. Although the lower reaches are resistant to high price goods, the demand side is stable and has the potential to extend the traditional peak season of “silver ten”.
Future forecast:
Business agency analysts believe: ABS market remained positive in October, prices of various brands continued to rise. On the cost side, the trend of the upstream three materials in October is generally strong, and the cost side has strong support for ABS. At present, ABS spot supply is still tight, the downstream demand is strong, and the trading is stable. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will continue to be better in the near future.
| Sulfamic acid |