Commodity index: on November 30, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride was 94.05, up 0.38 point compared with yesterday, 13.72% lower than 109.01 point (2019-08-28), and 11.54% higher than the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)
| Sulfamic acid 99.80% |
According to the monitoring data, in November, the market of polyaluminum chloride showed an overall upward trend. As one of the main monitoring specifications, polyaluminum chloride with a content of more than 28%, the lowest mainstream price was 1682.86 yuan / ton in the first ten days of this month, and the highest price was about 1740 yuan / ton at the end of November, with an increase of 3.4%, which was the highest price of polyaluminum chloride since 2020. Among them, on the basis of the price increase of raw materials hydrochloric acid and calcium powder in the first two months and the price rise of fuel and natural gas used in production process, this month is superimposed with the influence factors of gradual shortage of supply due to the shutdown of manufacturers under the requirements of environmental protection policies in the heating season. The price of polyaluminum chloride continues to rise in the middle and late ten days, and the rise rate of some manufacturers in Henan Province is about 300 yuan / ton.
Raw material cost: hydrochloric acid: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the North China area reported 307 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, fluctuated for many times in the month, and received 315 yuan / ton at the end of the month. As for Henan, one of the main production areas of water treatment enterprises, the local polyaluminum chloride manufacturers reported that the price of hydrochloric acid in November continued to rise on the basis of September October’s rise. Calcium powder: according to traders, the price increase of raw material calcium powder is mainly concentrated in September, with an increase of about 80 yuan / ton. The price of calcium powder has not changed much this month.
Natural gas is used in the production of polyaluminum chloride. The price of natural gas rose sharply at the time of gold, silver and ten. The price of natural gas rebounded rapidly after the shock and fall in November. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the temperature has dropped sharply in recent days, the demand for urban fuel has increased, the supply in some areas is tight, the downstream replenishment sentiment has increased, the demand is getting better, the market trading atmosphere has improved, the manufacturers’ shipment situation has improved, and the confidence in bidding has been strengthened. In addition, the price of liquefied natural gas has been boosted by many advantages. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be stronger in the short term, and the price will continue Continued to rise. Among them, the mainstream price of LNG was 2406.67 yuan / ton in early September and 3923.33 yuan / ton at the end of November, with an increase of 63% in March. For polyaluminum enterprises with such a big increase, the pressure will increase greatly, and the ex factory price of polyaluminum will inevitably rise.
Downstream demand: the heating season starts to meet strict inspection requirements, and the manufacturers stop production, resulting in tight supply of goods. This month is more than October, becoming the best month in 2020.
Industry: from September to the end of the year, the water treatment industry as a whole is in a good time. The market rise is mainly subject to the rising pressure of the cost side, the coming of the heating season and the shutdown and downstream demand caused by the pressure of environmental protection. The market is generally optimistic about the market situation of the water treatment industry in the heating season. In fact, the market rose sharply this month, which is indeed the best time in 2020.
Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of business agency, on the basis of heating season, the continuous rise of raw material cost and the shortage of supply caused by shutdown have caused the price rise of polyaluminum chloride. As for the future market, we believe that the above factors will continue to support the future market, and polyaluminum chloride will still have sufficient upward momentum in December.
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