According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market was positive in November, and the spot prices of various brands increased significantly. As of December 1, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 9066.67 yuan / ton, which was 11.25% higher than the average price level in early November.
Cause analysis
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In terms of propylene upstream of PP, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price fluctuated steadily in the first ten days of November, and showed a straight-line upward trend in the last ten days, according to the data of the business club’s bulk list. At the beginning of the month, the monthly low price was 6737 yuan / ton, while at the end of the month, the monthly high price was 7739 yuan / ton. The monthly average price was over 1000 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 14.87%. Now the factory stock is small, the shipment situation is good. In November, the price of upstream crude oil was mainly up with slight fluctuation, which had a limited impact on propylene. The increase of downstream products was obvious, which had a positive impact on propylene. However, at the end of November, the market began to stabilize, and the upward pressure in the later stage was greater, so it is expected that the propylene price will stabilize temporarily in the near future.
The market of propylene in November is positive and the current price is high, which has certain support for the cost side of PP. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the PP (drawing) market in November was red all month, with a good trend. In terms of inventory, according to the news, petrochemicals’ inventory increased significantly in early November, and the two oil inventories increased rapidly. Driven by the rise of futures, the market trading atmosphere turned warm and the inventory decreased smoothly. In the middle and late ten days, the inventory position of manufacturers even dropped to the low point of the year. At present, the price of PP is high, the cost pressure of plastic industry compresses the profit space, and some plastic enterprises have plans to reduce production and reduce the burden. In addition, with the start-up of the previously shut-down units and the actual production of new units, the domestic PP supply has increased significantly, which may have a negative impact on the future market.
According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of December 1, the mainstream offer of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was the same as that of drawing materials, with the price of about 9066.67 yuan / ton, which was 9.46% higher than the average price level in early November. Due to the large price increase of fiber materials in October, downstream mentality tends to be cautious in the first half of the month, but domestic restorative consumption growth boosts demand. Combined with the rise of raw material propylene in November and the boost of futures, the fiber material market rose smoothly in the second half of the month. At the end of November and the beginning of December, the supply and demand of polyolefins increased, and the power of just needed continuous follow-up was insufficient. It is expected that the price of fiber materials will come back in the near future.
PP meltblown material market recent shock finishing market, price trend and supply and demand led. At present, the y1500 price of Maoming Petrochemical is stable, and the reference quotation is 10900 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic epidemic situation is generally stable. Recently, a small-scale rebound has occurred in some areas, and the demand has increased slightly. In the middle of the month, the price of some brands of meltblown materials has increased by 100-200 yuan / ton, but the overall price trend is weak. There are too many suppliers in the meltblown cloth and material manufacturing market, and the profit is diluted seriously. The second outbreak trend of overseas epidemic is obvious, many countries announced to close the city again, and the non-woven fabric in the application of medical protection is sought after again. However, it is difficult for the price of meltblown materials to improve from the trend of big stability and small movement of imported materials. The business agency believes that the melt blown PP market in November is supported by the cost side, but the overall trend is still biased towards adjustment.
Future forecast
PP business agency analysts believe: November domestic PP spot market is more positive. The upstream propylene market is strong and the price is rising, which supports the cost side of PP. Mid late futures also boosted the spot market. In November, PP (drawing) price increased, PP (fiber) market also rose, PP (melt blown) decline tends to be stable. At present, the stock purchase of downstream factories turns weak and the transaction is weak. Merchants make profit and take delivery actively. PP spot is expected to adjust downward in the near future.
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