1、 Price trend
According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the domestic xylene market price showed an upward trend as a whole this week, while the price in some regions decreased significantly. The price of xylene was 3940 yuan / ton on January 3 and 3930 yuan / ton on this Sunday (January 10), down 10 yuan / ton or 0.25% from last week.
2、 Analysis and comment
Within the week, Sinopec’s xylene increased by 100-250 yuan / ton (the price in some regions decreased). In terms of external market, as of January 8, the price of imported xylene from South Korea was 582 US dollars / ton, up 69.5 US dollars / ton or 13.56% compared with December 31; the price of imported xylene from East China was 590 US dollars / ton, up 61.5 US dollars / ton or 11.64% compared with December 31. During the week, the crude oil news was good, and the price rose rapidly. The external price of Asian xylene rose by more than 10%. The domestic xylene market was very bullish, but the downstream PTA, PX, ox and other demand was general, and the follow-up attitude was cautious. Xylene inventory in East China ports this week was about 96100 tons, up 7400 tons from last week.
In terms of crude oil, on January 5, OPEC + reached an agreement to adjust the daily crude oil production. In addition, Saudi Arabia said that it would reduce the daily crude oil production by an additional 1 million barrels in February and March, and the oil price rose rapidly boosted by the favorable situation. Compared with December 31, Brent rose by $4.805/barrel, or 9.52%; WTI rose by $3.63/barrel, or 7.46%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 24.38% and WTI decreased by 19.98%.
Downstream, PX market, the domestic PX price this week is more stable than last week, Sinopec’s listed price is about 4700 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decline of 31.88%. The terminal demand is general, and PX is mainly purchased on demand. As of January 7, the closing prices of p-xylene market in Asia were US $676-678 / T FOB Korea and US $694-696 / T CFR China. This week, PX external price trend rose, to the domestic market to bring a certain positive support impact.
In terms of PTA market, PTA prices in East China showed an upward trend this week, up 278.89 yuan / ton, or 7.69%, compared with last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.91%. Recent PTA downstream orders are OK, PTA enterprises have good production enthusiasm, and there is no large-scale maintenance phenomenon. As of January 7, the starting load of domestic PTA production enterprises was 84%, which was at the normal level. At present, the periodic contradiction between supply and demand of PTA is not sharp, and crude oil still brings some support to the market, so PTA price is expected to continue the strong oscillation situation.
In terms of ox market, the price of ox was stable this week, with the price of ox in East China at 5000 yuan / ton. The import price of o-benzene in port area is temporarily stable, and the quotation is weakened. Recently, the inventory of o-benzene in port has increased, and the external quotation of o-benzene has fluctuated and fallen. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. Ox future market downward pressure is larger, rising momentum still exists.
3、 Future forecast
Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.
Crude oil, external support is good, toluene is expected to rise next Tuesday. However, domestic downstream demand remained weak, mainly from rigid demand; xylene port inventory was high, which was difficult to consume in the short term, restraining the growth. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the downstream stock before the Spring Festival and the impact of gasoline blending price trend on xylene price.
| Sulfamic acid |