1、 Price trend
According to the data of business news agency’s block list, domestic mixed xylene rose first and then fell this week, and the price rose slightly compared with last week. On March 7, the price of mixed xylene was 5430 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (March 14), the price was 5500 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton or 1.29% from last week.
2、 Analysis and comment
This week, Sinopec’s mixed xylene price adjustment range is + 50 / + 150 (yuan / ton). This week, the xylene inventory of ports in East and South China decreased, while the inventory of ports in South China decreased significantly. Xylene market is restricted by weak downstream demand. The negotiation is general in the week, and market participants are cautious. In terms of external market, as of March 12, the price of South Korea’s imported mixed xylene was 753 US dollars / ton, which was flat on March 5, and the reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 771 US dollars / ton, which was down 1 US dollars / ton, or 0.13%, on March 5.
In terms of crude oil, crude oil showed a rising and falling trend this week. OPEC + decided to extend production reduction, and OPEC raised its oil demand forecast to support oil prices. However, the rapid rise caused market concerns. On March 5, Brent rose $0.28/barrel, or 0.41%; WTI fell $0.28/barrel, or 0.42%.
Downstream, PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week is more stable than last week, the price is 6700 yuan / ton, up 42.55% over the beginning of the year, up 21.82% year on year. The domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%, and the domestic supply of p-xylene is general. As of the 12th, the closing prices in Asia were $838-840 / T FOB Korea and $856-858 / T CFR China. South Korea’s price decline was mainly driven by the overall price decline of polyester industry.
In terms of PTA market, the price of PTA in East China fell in shock this week, with 4635.83 yuan / ton on March 7 and 4497.73 yuan / ton on March 14, down 2.98% from last week and up 16.62% from the same period last year. PTA units fluctuated greatly during the week, 2.5 million tons of Hengli Petrochemical line 4 and 1.4 million tons of Huabin Petrochemical entered the overhaul on March 6, 1.2 million tons of Zhongtai plant in Xinjiang entered the overhaul due to shortage of raw materials; 750000 tons of Yadong petrochemical plant resumed to restart after two days of overhaul due to alkali washing problem within the week, and the overall load of Honggang Petrochemical phase 2 increased, with PTA operation rate of 77.3%.
In the ox market, the price of ox weakened this week. On Sunday, the price of ox in East China was 6200 yuan / ton, down 4.62% from last week and up 24% from the same period last year. The external quotation of o-benzene fluctuated and fell, and the cost was weak; the downstream market was weak, and the demand was just demand. O-benzene transaction enthusiasm is general, o-benzene market is weak and temporarily stable.
3、 Future forecast
Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.
The cost support of mixed xylene is strong; the follow-up of downstream demand is general, and rigid demand is dominant. It is expected that the price of mixed xylene will be mainly consolidated in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the trend of international crude oil, the arrival volume of mixed xylene, the dynamic of domestic enterprises and the impact of downstream demand changes on the price of mixed xylene.
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