According to the data monitored by the business community, the PP market continued to decline gradually in the middle of April, and the spot prices of various brands decreased to a certain extent. As of April 21, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8650.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.71% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 9.03% compared with the same period last year.
Cause analysis
PP upstream propylene domestic market in March to change the callback market, the current disk is in the upward channel. On the whole, the current international production has recovered slightly, the domestic inventory is not much, some units are overhauled, the crude oil market has risen slightly, and the downstream operating rate is acceptable, but the market is mainly stable, with a slight negative trend. Acrylic acid market down more, but still a strong role of crude oil, it is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate with the crude oil market, there is a possibility to continue to rise slightly.
Propylene raw material market recovery, PP cost side support. In the early stage, affected by the rapid resumption of construction in China, the on-site operation rate started rapidly. The high load of the industry continued for nearly a quarter. It was reported that the overall average operating rate of domestic polypropylene plants in the first quarter was about 93%, which was at a historical high. Due to the high load and output, and the rise of propylene, the profit of some PP polymerization enterprises was inverted. Although overseas orders share some pressure, domestic production lines have been launched before, and there is a certain degree of contradiction between supply and demand. Downstream factories gradually conflict with high price orders, and they are not willing to accept the goods. Market trading resistance increased, the current into the latter half of the business operation has been turned to let the profit go single.
In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of April 21, the mainstream offer of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) was similar to that of wire drawing materials, with a price of about 8800.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.52% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 16.46% compared with the same period last year. In April, the production scheduling of fiber PP was lower than that in the earlier stage, and the proportion of recent production scheduling fluctuated around 5%. On the demand side, it is not the same as the same period last year. At present, the demand of fiber PP is stable, and the drop range of spot price is larger than that of wire drawing material. In the current situation of strong competition in spunbonded non-woven field, the shipping resistance of traders increases.
Meltblown materials, the recent meltblown PP market down slightly, the overall level of spot prices more stable. As of April 21, the average quotation of pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 10766.67 yuan / ton. At present, the epidemic situation in China is generally stable. The new situation in some areas has little effect on the demand for medical protective equipment. The saturation situation of domestic epidemic prevention materials is relatively stable. The overseas epidemic situation is still the same, and the market performance of meltblown materials in the outer market is also general under the mandatory mask policy. Overall, the domestic melt blown fabric manufacturing market competition is strong, profit dispersion, melt blown PP market is expected to have entered a long-term stable state.
Future forecast
Business community PP analysts believe that: in mid April domestic PP spot market trend fell. The recovery of upstream propylene price has supported the cost side of PP. The demand performance was poor, the profit space of downstream factories was compressed, and the bearish attitude was heavy. Inventory, the current two oil and social inventory consumption, slow down the pace of PP prices. At the same time, the trend of upstream crude oil is not good in recent days, and PP price is expected to fall in the short term.
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