According to the data monitored by the business society (average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), on June 30, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 9087.5 yuan / ton, down 1.64% from 9150 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 43.14% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
In June, the price trend of PVC market as a whole showed a downward trend, and there was a rebound operation near the end of the month, but the center of gravity still moved down, and the market was relatively volatile. In June, the maintenance of PVC devices was not much, and the market supply was increased. In June and July, the PVC market entered the off-season, with the start-up load of downstream enterprises reduced, the demand for PVC decreased, and the external market weakened. The PVC market was in a weak situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, resulting in the gradual decline of prices, and the delivery of PVC enterprises was not optimistic, There is more room for negotiation, and the attitude of business owners is more bearish. However, the price of raw material calcium carbide rises, supporting PVC price is not easy to fall, so the monthly decline is not big.
At present, the downstream PVC products industry starts generally in the off-season. In addition to the power rationing in some areas in June and the strict safety inspection during July 1, the start-up load continues to drop. The profile, pipe and other products industry maintains at the medium level, while the membrane, wire and cable enterprises start fairly well, about 80% or 90%. On the whole, the start-up load drop in the off-season is the general trend, As a result, the purchase mood of PVC is not high, and only just need to take the goods, the transaction atmosphere turns light.
In terms of spot price, the main quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 8850-9100 yuan / ton. Pvc5 calcium carbide in Hangzhou area is 9050-9180 yuan / ton; The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Changzhou area is 9020-9150 yuan / ton,; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 9080-9170 yuan / ton; Local markets were stable and down.
In terms of futures, futures prices rebounded many times and then fell back in June, with obvious rebound in the middle and the end of the month. However, the spot market was cautious in following the rise, and the price adjustment of enterprises was not large enough to boost the market. July 1 v2109 contract opening price: 8695, the highest price: 8745, the lowest price: 8650, position: 405181, settlement price: 8695, yesterday settlement: 8710, down 15.
region technology 7 / 1 (yuan / ton) 6 / 1 (yuan / ton) Up and down remarks
East China Calcium carbide process 9030-9010 9220-9330 – 190/-320 Delivery
south China Calcium carbide process 9080-9150 9180-9300 – 100/-150 Delivery
North China Calcium carbide process 8930-9010 9130-9270 – 200/-260 To
southwest Calcium carbide process 8950-9100 9050-9200 – 100/-100 To
On June 30, international crude oil prices rose. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was US $73.47/barrel, up 0.49 US dollars or 0.7%. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 74.62 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 0.34 U.S. dollars or 0.5%. On Wednesday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recorded a drop in crude oil storage last week, and now it has dropped for six consecutive weeks; And the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported that this year’s oil supply situation is tight.
Ethylene, June 30, European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted 1219-1230 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe quoted 1069-1080 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton. On June 30, the US ethylene market quoted a price of 660-673 US dollars / ton, up 45 US dollars / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market rose, and the demand was good. On June 30, the price of ethylene in Asia was 908-914 US dollars / ton in Northeast Asia and 873-879 US dollars / ton in Southeast Asia. Recently, the price of ethylene in Asia is mainly rising. Affected by the price rise of upstream crude oil, ethylene market may rise in the later stage.
On July 1, the reference price of calcium carbide was 4600.00, up 10.4% compared with that on June 1 (4166.67). The price of blue charcoal in the upstream rose slightly, with better cost support. The PVC market in the downstream fell slightly, and the demand for calcium carbide weakened. Calcium carbide fell slightly in the future.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts from business news agency believe that PVC market supply increased and demand weakened in June. With the support of cost and inventory, futures prices rebounded many times, while spot market price adjustment was not large, enterprise shipment was not optimistic, and transaction atmosphere became weak. In July, the influence of off-season factors remains, the contradiction between supply and demand may be further obvious, and the PVC market may continue to weaken, with the focus moving down.
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