1、 Price trend:
According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic market of PA6 in mid July fell, and spot prices decreased. As of July 20, the main offer price of sample enterprises for Zhongwei 2.75-2.85 was about 15566.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.09% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a 38.99% increase compared with the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors:
In terms of upstream caprolactam, domestic caprolactam spot market fell slightly in the middle of this month. In the first ten days, the supply side of the company was favorable and kept rising at the end of June, but the international crude oil has declined in recent years. Meanwhile, the second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, which is directly raw material, is expected to have new capacity, with increased supply, high pressure on drop of pure benzene and weak cost end of caprolactam in China. In terms of demand, the current downstream plant commencement rate is generally low, the market buying atmosphere is weak, and the industry’s wait-and-see mentality gradually permeates the site. Although there is a positive side of supply, domestic demand for caprolactam is slow to follow up and the cost is weak. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will easily fall and will not rise in the short term.
At present, the load of PA6 polymerization plant in China is less than that at the beginning of the month, and the load is stable at about 60%. There is no significant building of social inventory, and supply end has some support for spot, among which the price of high-speed spinning section is relatively stable. In terms of market demand, the consumption of end enterprises has not yet gone out of the off-season market, and the atmosphere of on-site observation is heavy, and the actual investment is mostly the pre order. The rise in early July affected the purchasing power of downstream enterprises. At present, buyers have a feeling of filling high price goods, and the operation of stock preparation is just needed to replenish goods to maintain production. In addition, the recent narrow decline of caprolactam, the cost side support of PA6 is loose, and the price is up to the upstream to some extent.
3、 Post market forecast:
Analysts at business society believe that the caprolactam in the upper reaches of PA6 was weak in mid July and the cost side support of PA6 was weakened. Currently, the starting rate of PA6 industry is maintained at a low level, and the support of supply side remains. However, the end-users are in conflict with the spot price increase in the first ten days, and the resistance to the delivery of high price goods in the field increases, which leads to the shrinking of the mid mid delivery and investment, and the market wait-and-see mentality is strong. It is expected that spot price of PA6 will weaken slightly in the short term.
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