Commodity market: according to the monitoring of business agency, the mainstream market of domestic natural rubber market increased by a wide margin compared with the closing price of the previous day on May 10, and the market spot price increased by about 350-400 yuan / ton. The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 12420 yuan / ton, up 2.64% from the quotation of the previous trading day and down 11.54% year-on-year.
Industrial focus: on the supply side, the rainfall in Thailand’s production area during May Day is unfavorable to rubber cutting, the output of new rubber is low, and is gradually increasing. Vietnam’s output is normal, but its export is not much; At present, the main production areas in China have been cut one after another. Although the production area in Hainan has been delayed, it is expected to increase the quantity one after another by the end of May, and the entry of new rubber into the market may be postponed to June. On the demand side, the current consumption off-season is superimposed with the impact of public health events, the commencement of downstream product enterprises is limited, the rubber delivery in Shanghai and other places is difficult, the circulation of raw materials and finished products is partially blocked, the export demand decreases and it is difficult to recover in the short term. The slowdown of internal and external demand leads to heavy inventory of finished products of tire enterprises, high pressure to go to the warehouse, the commencement of enterprises is affected, and the procurement demand is slow. On the inventory side, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased, the delivery rate picked up and the warehousing rate decreased. In terms of import and export, the tense situation of containers continues, the arrival time of shipping schedule is delayed seriously, and the port transportation is not smooth, and the source of tradable goods is locally tense; According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 9, China imported 536000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in April 2022, down 7.1% from 577000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to April 2022, China imported 2.397 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 1.3% over 2.367 million tons in the same period in 2021.
Future forecast: the output and arrival date of new rubber did not meet the expectations, and the local liquidity source was a little tight; Due to the low consumption season and high inventory pressure, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises is suppressed, which is expected to be slightly supported in the short-term shock. We will focus on the impact of public health events on ship cargo imports and key domestic circulation places.
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