External news was positive, and toluene prices rebounded after falling (may 9-may 13, 2022)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, toluene rebounded after falling this week. The price was 7460 yuan / ton on May 6 and 7540 yuan / ton on Friday (May 13), up 1.07% from last week; 25% higher than the same period last year.

 

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2、 Analysis and comment

 

In the first half of the week, the price of toluene fell due to the wide decline of crude oil, the weakening of gasoline market and the weak downstream demand. In the second half of the week, with the rebound of crude oil and the rise of toluene prices in Asia, the focus of market participants shifted from domestic demand to export, the trading atmosphere improved and the price rebounded.

 

In terms of external trading, toluene rose in Asia this week. On Thursday (May 12), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $1058 / ton, a year-on-year increase of US $14 / ton, or 1.34%.

 

In terms of crude oil, crude oil rose after a wide decline this week, and the market fluctuated left and right under the fundamentals of good supply and bad demand. As of May 13, Brent fell 0.84 USD / barrel, or 0.75%; WTI rose $0.72/barrel, or 0.66%.

 

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China fell continuously this week. The price was 17550 yuan / ton on May 6 and 17250 yuan / ton on May 13, down 1.71% from last week and up 18.69% from the same period last year.

 

In terms of PX market, domestic PX rose broadly this week. On Friday (May 13), the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton, up 4.49% from last week and 45.31% from the same period last year.

 

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In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong rebounded after falling this week. The price was 8907.4 yuan / ton on May 6 and 8618 yuan / ton on May 13, down 3.25% from last week and up 14.29% from the same period last year.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

In terms of crude oil, in terms of crude oil, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is full of uncertainty, and the fear of tightening oil supply remains unabated. However, the high oil price is bad for the economy and demand, and there is still a risk of violent fluctuation superimposed on short-term crude oil. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

 

The opening of the Asian American arbitrage window will drive the increase of toluene exports, which will help to alleviate the bad news caused by weak domestic demand in the short term. Overall, if crude oil and outer disk continue to rise, it may drive toluene higher. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, the domestic gasoline market, the dynamics and demand of toluene and downstream devices, etc.

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