In October, domestic polyester staple fiber prices showed a trend of high opening and low going. According to the price test of the business community, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on October 31 was 7792 yuan/ton, 1.70% lower than the price of 7926 at the beginning of the month, 4.28% lower than the same period last year. In the futures market, the staple fiber contract at the end of the month closed at 6738 (settlement price 6750), down 5.79% from the beginning of the month. This month, the main domestic staple fiber upstream raw material PTA futures fell 6.94% to close at 5012, and the main ethylene glycol futures fell 12.55% to close at 3769.
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Industrial chain: 1. Although OPEC+cut production more than expected this month, the Federal Reserve’s expectation of interest rate increase is more certain, which curbs the upward momentum of crude oil prices. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main US WTI crude oil futures contract was 86.53 dollars/barrel, up 8.17% for the whole month. 2. In this month, with the restart of the large factory, PTA’s load and supply increased significantly. The terminal demand is weak, and there is a strong expectation of reducing the burden of raw materials when they are used. In addition, the Spring Festival this year is earlier than previous years, and the overall lack of confidence in the future market. PTA price goes down. 3. In this month, some domestic ethylene glycol plants were restarted, and the supply rebounded at a low level, but the overall commencement remained at a relatively low level, and the port inventory accumulated slightly. The terminal order is weak, the weaving operation rate is not high, the downstream operation level falls back, and the accumulated storage pressure at the polyester end increases. Overall, strong supply and weak demand led to lower prices. 4. The yarn market continued to be flat this month, and downstream demand was poor. Finished products continued to accumulate. Yarn mills mainly shipped goods with small orders and short orders. Prices were mostly stable, and prices of some varieties were slightly lowered.
Supply and demand side: some short fiber devices were restarted this month, and the construction started to recover. Jinzhai Xinlun restarted, Jiangyin Huahong, Yizheng Chemical Fiber, Sanfangxiang load increased, and Xinfengming Zhonglei partially reduced production. Downstream losses deepened, inventories were high, and orders were limited, suppressing the demand for staple fibers. The spot price of staple fiber fell all month, and the trend of spot was stronger than that of futures.
Analysts from the business community believe that the market is still evaluating the impact of future crude oil demand prospects and tight supply and other factors on oil prices. It is expected that the crude oil market will remain volatile, and the cost side of polyester staple fiber may remain volatile. The supply and demand of staple fiber are weak in the near future. It is expected that polyester staple fiber will show a weak shock trend in November, but it may have a rebound trend if it is oversold. Pay attention to cost side price change, device restart and downstream orders.
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