In 2022, the overall trend of bisphenol A will be downward. The aggravation of geographical conflicts will push up the wide fluctuation of oil prices, the repeated domestic health events, the devaluation of the RMB, and the changes in the fundamentals of bisphenol A supply and demand are important factors affecting the trend of bisphenol A in 2022.
According to the monitoring data of the business community, the market offer was 16875 yuan/ton on January 1, 2022. After a small rise at the beginning of the year and a period of firmness, the market fell sharply in late February, and the market fell to a low point of 11650 yuan/ton in the year until July 21. Affected by the tight supply, the market pushed up in August September. However, the good times did not last long. Jin Jiu just passed the market and fell again. In October, he gave up all the previous gains, In November, the market downturn continued to be at an annual low.
The price trend of bisphenol A market can be clearly seen from the price trend chart of bisphenol A products, which is a big data service of small program price matching by Netsun in the above figure. When the price of the business community crosses the 7-day or 30-day moving average upward, it indicates that the commodity has entered the upward channel, and vice versa. The following scanning codes are free of charge:
1、 Changes in bisphenol A market trend in 2022
First, in the first quarter, the bisphenol A market was promoted first and then suppressed, and the outbreak of multiple outbreaks became the focus again
In the first quarter, the highest point of bisphenol A market was 19000 yuan/ton on February 10, and the lowest point was 15825 yuan/ton on March 25, with a quarterly amplitude of 17%.
In January, with the increase of the operating rate of the downstream PC industry and the promotion of the centralized stocking of epoxy resin, the bisphenol A market, which was already in short supply, rose rapidly. The centralized stocking before the Spring Festival and the sharp rise in oil prices after the festival boosted the bisphenol A market to a good start in the new year. By February 10, the market quotation had reached 19,000 yuan/ton, the highest point in the year. In March, the oil price fell and the outbreak of epidemic in many places caused the logistics and demand to be blocked. Bisphenol A fell sharply, and the market fell to 16550 yuan/ton on March 31
Second, the bisphenol A market accelerated its decline in the second quarter, with a cumulative decline of 28%
Geopolitical factors combined with epidemic emergencies led to a significant decline in downstream demand and a significant decline in the bisphenol A market in the second quarter. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the market offer was 16550 yuan/ton on April 1, and fell to 12775 yuan/ton on June 30 at the end of the quarter. On July 21, the market continued to decline to the lowest point of the year, 11650 yuan/ton, an overall decline of 28%.
On the one hand, the supply has increased steadily. In the second quarter, the domestic production of bisphenol A was about 600000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 30%, and the utilization rate of plant capacity was about 75%. On the other hand, the demand of the two downstream markets is poor, and the terminal consumption of the industrial chain is sluggish. The market continues to be in the de stocking stage. With little demand for raw material procurement and lack of market confidence, it continues to fall to the end of July.
Third, multiple advantages are superimposed, and the bisphenol A market continues to rise unilaterally.
Affected by the simultaneous rise of upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and the shortage of its own supply, bisphenol A ushered in a significant increase in the annual market from August to September. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the market price was 11,762 yuan/ton on August 1, and rose to 16,475 yuan/ton on September 28, up 40% in two months.
First, the supply is tight. The main production enterprises mainly supply long-term customers, and the off spot sales are limited. In addition, due to the impact of typhoon, the import shipping schedule was postponed to varying degrees, and the supply of imported goods was limited. Second, the industrial chain linkage, both upstream and downstream showed an upward trend, and the transaction of raw material phenol/acetone was firm after a significant increase. The two downstream also showed a continuous increase due to the impact of the industry, with a substantial increase in orders. Third, the RMB continued to depreciate in September, the US dollar exchange rate once reached 7.3, the external market rose synchronously, and the import source negotiations were cautious.
Fourth, the demand is insufficient in the fourth quarter, and bisphenol A is subducted.
After the National Day holiday, with the decline of demand, the market entered into a sharp downward trend. In half a month, BPA has given up all its previous gains. As of November 18, the mainstream offer of BPA market was 11900-12000 yuan/ton. The upstream phenol continued to decline, the downstream demand was seriously insufficient to follow up, and the maintenance devices were about to restart in the fourth quarter, with new devices coming out in succession. The cost side was negative and the supply increased. The short-term bisphenol A market was difficult to be optimistic, and the weak market might continue in the short term.
2、 Changes in supply and demand pattern of domestic bisphenol A market
1. In 2022, the new capacity will be 1.41 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of about 58%.
According to the annual data summary released by the business community at the end of 2021, BPA will enter the “Great Leap Forward” period in the next three years, and 2022 will be an important year for the concentrated release of BPA production capacity in China. Despite the impact of the epidemic, the domestic and international economic environment, and the contraction of profitability, several sets of projects have been put into production successively. By the end of the year, 1.41 million tons of new production capacity is expected to be put into production, with a year-on-year growth of about 58%, Compared with 2021, the total domestic production capacity increased by 680000 tons/year, an increase of 28%. The specific enterprises put into production are as follows:
2. In 2022, China’s dependence on imports of bisphenol A will further decline.
In 2019 and 2020, the import volume of bisphenol A in China was 606000 tons and 595000 tons respectively, with an import dependency of about 30%. After 2021, the domestic bisphenol A production capacity will expand significantly, and the internal supply capacity will improve. In 2021, the import volume will drop to 490000 tons. In 2022, the production capacity will expand again. In the middle of the year, the import volume will weaken due to the influence of the RMB exchange rate. The import volume is expected to drop to around 400000 tons, and the import dependency will drop to about 15%. At present, China’s BPA import volume mainly comes from South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, China Province of China and Singapore.
3. In 2022, the total domestic production capacity of bisphenol A will be increased to 3.095 million tons/year.
4. The demand for bisphenol A in the downstream of the two major players changes greatly
Bisphenol A is one of the widely used industrial compounds, which is used to manufacture (epoxy resin) EP and (polycarbonate) PC, and is also widely used in plasticizers, flame retardants, coatings, pesticides and other fields. However, as an important downstream consumption, EP and PC account for 97%. In 2021, the proportion of the two downstream demands will be 48% and 49% respectively. However, significant changes will take place in 2022. In the first ten months, the consumption of PC for bisphenol A will increase by 25%, while that of epoxy resin will decline significantly. The proportion of demand for both will continue to expand.
3、 Forecast of bisphenol A market trend
From the perspective of the business community, with the increase of new production capacity of bisphenol A, the supply of China’s internal market has increased significantly. From the perspective of the two downstream demand products, the epoxy resin has not changed much, but the procurement of bisphenol A for PC has shrunk due to the impact of device maintenance, so the contradiction between supply and demand has intensified. From the perspective of cost, there are many new phenol ketone units put into production, and the supply side is expected to increase. In the short term, the supply of raw materials will increase, and the possibility of phenol ketone market rising significantly is small, so it is difficult to support the cost of bisphenol A. At present, the domestic epidemic situation has broken out in many places, and various uncertain factors have increased. At the end of the year, there is great resistance from logistics and other aspects. To sum up, the bisphenol A market maintains a range fluctuation operation in the short term, focusing on the operation of upstream and its own new devices at the end of the year. In the long run, China still focuses on the epidemic situation.