In 2022, the market price of chloroform will fluctuate and decline. According to the monitoring of the business community, the market price of chloroform in Shandong was 2237 yuan/ton as of December 30, down 48.86% from 4375 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. In the first half of the year, the cost rose and the demand peak was superimposed, and chloroform stepped out of the first wave of the year, with the peak at 5925 yuan/ton in early April; Although the cost rose again in the second half of the year, due to the low demand in the off-season, the second peak of chloroform dropped significantly. The second highest point in the year was 4350 yuan/ton on October 18.
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On the cost side: The price of raw methanol in 2022 will show a “M” trend, with two highs of 3142 yuan/ton and 3206 yuan/ton in March and October respectively. The cost side will drive the price trend of chloroform to form two peaks.
Supply side: In 2022, the domestic production capacity of methane chloride will increase by 260000 tons/year, and the supply side of chloroform will continue to be loose.
Demand side: R22 production quota and domestic production quota in 2022 will be 224807 tons and 133534 tons respectively, both of which are equal to those in 2021. The consumption of trichloromethane remained unchanged. Under the pattern of increased supply and no new demand, the price of chloroform declined as a whole. According to the business community, the R22 production quota and the domestic production quota in 2023 will be 181,847 tons and 110,953 tons respectively, both of which will be significantly reduced compared with 2022. In the future, the consumption of chloroform will be further reduced.
Future forecast: The geopolitical crisis has pushed up energy prices, but the global economic recession has dragged down energy prices. In this context, the price of coal and other energy in 2023 will be lower than the peak in 2022 but higher than the average in recent years. Affected by this, the price of methanol will also fluctuate widely, and the cost of trichloromethane will still fluctuate.
Supply side: In 2023, there will still be new methane chloride devices such as Dongying Huatai Phase II which are planned to be put into operation, and the pressure on the supply side will continue to increase.
Demand side: The production quota of R22 in the main downstream will further decline in 2023, and the demand side will continue to weaken under the support of chloroform.
To sum up, the chloroform analysts of the business community believe that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate in the range of 2200~4800 yuan/ton in 2023 under the influence of costs and off peak seasons, and the prices will rise slightly in the peak season as the downstream domestic sales and foreign trade recover, while the off peak season will basically maintain a low consolidation trend.
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