In August 2026, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market rose, with an average price of 15465 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16220 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 4.88%.
In August, the overall market showed a bottoming out trend followed by a sustained upward trend. After hitting a low point at the beginning of the month, it fluctuated and rose all the way, reaching a new high at the end of the month.
supply side
Primary lead: Some smelters have been disturbed during maintenance, resulting in a temporary shortage of crude lead raw materials, weak willingness of smelters to ship, and a contraction in spot circulation; Environmental protection and equipment maintenance have led to a temporary contraction in output, supporting spot pricing.
Recycled lead: The supply of waste lead-acid batteries is tight, recycling costs are rising, and the processing profits of recycled lead enterprises are limited. The operating rate has not been significantly released, and the incremental supply of recycled lead to the market is limited.
Overall, there was no significant increase in the effective supply of lead in August, and spot circulation was tight, providing the underlying support for the upward trend in prices.
Demand side
The core downstream applications of lead are concentrated in the field of lead-acid batteries, mainly covering two directions: energy storage scenarios and automotive starter batteries. Among them, in the traditional automotive starter battery sector, the demand for summer terminal battery replacement is gradually recovering, and downstream battery companies are synchronously promoting inventory replenishment. The behavior of buying at low prices directly drives spot consumption; In terms of energy storage lead-acid batteries, with the release of demand for some energy storage projects, the overall operating rate of battery factories remains at a medium to high level. The current industry demand has not shown explosive growth, and overall it is showing a moderate recovery trend. The main driving logic for prices comes from downstream inventory being low, and companies gradually replenishing inventory as the market rises.
Overall summary
The core logic behind the rise in lead prices in August is that supply side contraction is the main cause, downstream demand is moderately recovering and cooperating, and tight spot prices are driving upward price recovery; On a technical level, there has been a complete shift towards a bullish trend, but in the short term, there have been signs of an uptrend. Market outlook: The trend is bullish, but it is not advisable to chase high. First, be alert to the risk of high-level fluctuations and pullbacks, and wait for a pullback before seeing multiple opportunities. Focus on tracking changes in the supply side.
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