This week, the international sulfur market as a whole presented a structural differentiation pattern of “price adjustment and cost stability”. Although mainstream exporting countries in the Middle East have slightly lowered their contract prices in September, the actual comprehensive landed costs remain high due to the continued tightening of geopolitical and global tradable spot prices. The global sulfur market is undergoing a profound supply-demand restructuring, and the trend of easy rise but difficult fall in the short term is difficult to reverse.
1、 International Price Dynamics: Deviation between Contract Price Decline and Firm Cost of Arrival
The core contradiction of international sulfur prices this week lies in the deviation between “explicit price reduction” and “implicit cost increase”.
Middle East contract price adjustment: Qatar Energy announced the monthly contract price for sulfur in September 2026, with FOB (offshore price) lowered to $880/ton, a slight decrease of $10/ton from $890/ton in August. This reflects the intention of Middle Eastern exporting countries to alleviate downstream procurement pressure by adjusting prices.
Actual landed costs remain high: Despite some loosening of FOB prices, the continued escalation of geopolitical shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant increase in ocean insurance surcharges. Based on the August contract price in Kuwait (FOB 865 US dollars/ton), combined with high freight and insurance premiums, the theoretical CFR (cost plus freight) comprehensive landed cost for shipping to ports in southern China has exceeded 1070 US dollars/ton. Geopolitical risk has become the core factor that dominates the actual procurement cost of international sulfur at present.
2、 Global supply pattern: Multiple lockdowns lead to depletion of spot liquidity
Apart from the disruption caused by China Eastern Airlines, the supply of goods in major export regions around the world has simultaneously contracted, further exacerbating the tense global spot market situation
Middle East production capacity damage and shipping obstruction: Due to the continuous escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the refinery capacity of traditional major exporting countries has been damaged by about 30%, and the instability of Middle East sources has led to the depletion of liquidity in the spot market, resulting in frequent occurrences of “price but no market” phenomena. About 45% of the global shipping volume of sulfur passes through the Strait of Hormuz, posing a high risk of physical disruption.
Multi country export control and reflux: In order to prioritize the production of domestic fertilizer enterprises, multiple countries have implemented strict export control measures. Indian refineries voluntarily cease exports to the outside world; Türkiye continued to implement sulfur export control policies, and local spot prices rose significantly; Due to the damage to previous refinery facilities and the extension of export bans until the end of the year, Russia’s exports have continued to decrease. The global available spot quantity has been significantly reduced.
3、 Downstream industrial chain transmission: dual squeezing of fertilizers and new energy
As the absolute core raw material for the production of sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizers, the high price of sulfur is profoundly affecting the global agricultural and new energy industry chain from top to bottom
Boosting global agricultural fertilization costs: The skyrocketing price of sulfur directly increases the production cost of phosphate fertilizers such as diammonium phosphate. In the corn belt region of the United States, the price of diammonium phosphate has risen to around $850 per ton, and the high price and drastic fluctuations have brought great uncertainty to farmers’ purchasing decisions for the upcoming 2027 planting season.
Suppressing overseas phosphate fertilizer and new energy production rates: Due to severe shortages of raw materials, overseas phosphate fertilizer companies are forced to continue controlling their operating loads, and European farmers are delaying autumn fertilizer preparation due to high costs. In addition, nickel cobalt hydrometallurgy (HPAL) projects in countries such as Indonesia have also been forced to reduce their operating loads due to sulfur shortages, and the sulfur bottleneck has substantially suppressed the capacity release of the global fertilizer and new energy industry chain.
4、 Market outlook: Continued tight balance pattern, wary of high-level fluctuations
Overall, the core contradiction in the current international sulfur market is no longer simply contract pricing, but the hidden cost increase caused by shipping risks, the contraction of multi country source outflow, and the sharp reduction of global tradable spot goods.
Short term trend: As long as the shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz are not substantially relieved and the export sources from India and Russia are not restored, the import landed costs for China and the world will continue to operate at a high level. The market is expected to maintain a high and wide range of fluctuations, with easy gains but difficult losses.
Mid to long term prediction: Overseas leading phosphate fertilizer companies have issued warnings that the global sulfur shortage pattern may continue until 2027. In the macro context of tight supply, high costs, weak demand, and strong prices, the high price situation in the global sulfur market is difficult to completely reverse in the short term.
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