“Swing effect” force, the market into the shock

After the May 1, the market began to Powei down, ushered in the crash, only May 4, 5 days two days of commodity futures market ushered in a continuous blow, 4 day the three major futures exchanges in the country a total of 39 varieties of 39 Varieties of the main contract fell, of which all futures contracts on the main contract were down, DCE, Zheng Shang, respectively, only three of their products rose slightly up. Iron ore, natural rubber, hot rolled coil, methanol four varieties to stop to close, rebar futures main contract hit intraday limit, 5 days of iron ore main contract continued to plummet 7%, natural rubber, asphalt fell 5%, the remaining major varieties of decline is also 2-3%. The commodity price index BPI fell 9 points from May 2 to 8.

To crude oil, iron ore, copper as the representative of the main goods to break the previous run range, the international crude oil in late April fell below 50 dollars after May 5 has hit 43 dollars / barrel of the year low, after May Crude oil prices have fallen back to the level of the end of October 2016, iron ore futures prices are basically the same as the level of the end of October 2016, copper futures spot prices are back to the level of the end of December 2016, and iron ore, copper futures are the main Hit a new low this year.

The market in the Powei down after the second week of May to show a new situation, the black line ended the previous crash into the shock, iron ore, copper and coke, coking coal, etc. are in addition to a slight rebound, but hot rolled, Rebar, silicon and manganese, natural rubber and even crude oil is still up and down adjustment, and 10, 11, the market continued to move up the black line, hot rolled, rebar, coking coal fell more than 3%, iron ore Again fell back again.

Prior to the business editor, China Commodity Development Research Center Secretary-General Liu Xin Tian has said that the market in Powei down after two directions, one after the start of the gradual decline in the gradual decline; First, the market suffered heavy losses after the sharp decline Into the “swing”, that is, the market is in the upper and lower shocks, from the performance of the market this week to see, as previously predicted by Liu Xin Tian, ​​”swing effect” began to force the market into the upper and lower adjustments in the shock.

Liu Xin Tian pointed out that from the big cycle point of view, the bull atmosphere has not yet been broken, the temporary Powei down is only a wave of bull market Quotes Quotes, the market is only temporarily into the rest period.

How to determine the bottom of the market callback to the bottom of the commodity market to three major indicators of crude oil, iron ore, copper, for example, to the bottom of the recent 2016 mid-November 43 US dollars for reference, crude oil has now fallen back to 45 dollars / Barrel up and down, from the bottom of the $ 43 close, 45 dollars to become a strong support for crude oil; iron ore futures at the bottom of two reference values, one is in mid-2016 in mid-November 430 yuan / ton, one is 2016 10 400 yuan / ton in the middle of the current iron ore tonnage at 470 yuan, 430 yuan will be iron ore support level; and Shanghai copper since the beginning of November 2016 opening gains until the end of 2017 by the end of February 30%, from the beginning of March, the rate of copper callback, but 5%, Shanghai copper there is a great callback space, 40,000 yuan / ton will be the wave of copper callback of a bottom, that is, back to the level of early November 2016.

Liu Xintian also stressed that the commodity market will continue to shock in the short term, but the frequency and magnitude of the shock will gradually decline, after the adjustment of the market will return to the bull market.