Nickel prices in May to June after the full adjustment down, once followed the black line appeared a significant rebound, but because of the current round up with the factors dominate, their lack of more solid conditions, so in the black Up, the external macro conditions have changed, the nickel price rose up significantly down to adjust the show.
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Changes in macroeconomic factors have become the main cause of recent resonance
The United States into the rate hike cycle, and to reduce the balance sheet, but the recovery in the euro area, hawks kept under the euro once a significant strength, once the dollar trend appears relatively weak signs, but also boost the bulk of the goods as a whole Of the risk appetite, which became the end of June since the overall strength of the reasons for the goods. With the dollar index gradually stabilized rebound will appear, after the rebound in goods after the profit will also show.
While the domestic capital in June steady over-expected not tense, coupled with greater financial spending, and there are signs of supplementing the inventory also make the overall risk appetite of goods rebounded. However, with the medium-term funds to spend the exam, the market will also find the domestic monetary policy neutral tight overall trend has not changed, so the continued strength of the product will also be limited. The domestic environment is still under the strict financial supervision of financial leverage to dominate the capital side is still not optimistic, continue to form pressure. Although the recent emergence of the overall recovery of the rebound, but the stage of the inventory situation is still difficult to change the overall market rhythm of the weak overall orientation. In the trend of varieties, the supply side of the reform benefit from the relative position in the dominant position, and nickel due to the reasons for the stainless steel in the follow-up position, and because of their own supply and demand direction is still lack of support, so affected by the impact of the surrounding emotional fluctuations When with the rise, fell when the fall, the initiative to support the ups and downs of the factors that have not yet strong performance.
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Global demand for nickel supply and demand
World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) published data show that in 2017 1 to 4 months the global nickel market supply shortage of 35,300 tons, 2016 global nickel market supply shortage of 62,000 tons. 2017 1 to 4 global refined nickel production of 531,600 tons, the demand for 566,800 tons. 1 ~ April mine nickel production was 574,000 tons, compared with the same period in 2016 fell 60,000 tons. China’s smelter / refinery nickel production decreased by 26,000 tons compared with 2016, the apparent demand fell by 107,000 tons over the previous year, due to Russia to reduce nickel imports. Global apparent demand fell 37,000 tons from the previous year. In April 2017, nickel smelter / refinery production was 138,100 tonnes and consumption was 145,900 tonnes.
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According to the International Nickel Research Organization (INSG), the global refined nickel supply gap narrowed in April as refined nickel production from Indonesia and China jumped. Global refined nickel production in April rose 2.5% from the previous month to 16,9900 tons, mild demand, slightly down to 173,100 tons, making the market supply gap reached 3,200 tons, lower than the March revised 8200 tons. March refined nickel production significantly down to 165,500 tons, the former value of 173,300 tons. April global nickel mine production rebounded 10.9% to 17,400 tons, mainly due to Indonesia’s production almost doubled. March revised production of 15,300 tons. Indonesian mines increased production in 2017, as new nickel suppliers in the world have introduced new regulations that allow some ore exports to be implemented in 2014 before the ban on ore exports. In the first four months of 2017, the supply of nickel in Indonesia increased nearly doubled to 96,200 tonnes. Indonesia refined nickel production increased nearly twice to 64,000 tons, China’s production rose 12.9% to 196700 tons. From January to April, the global nickel mine production was 637,600 tons, roughly the same as last year. Mine production from the Philippines fell more than one-fifth, due to bad weather and the government to implement the suppression of mining activities. While the output of Botswana was interrupted because a major mine was liquidated at the end of last year. In the first four months of 2017, global refined nickel production rose 5.7% to 667,500 tonnes, and global refined nickel consumption jumped 6.7% to 68,9900 tonnes. 1 to 4 months global refined nickel market gap of 22,400 tons, more than the same period last year 15,300 tons gap scale.
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Domestic nickel iron supply in June shrinkage
5 to June part of the time, stainless steel market downturn, low profits, and even part of the conversion of carbon steel, nickel and iron demand caused by a certain degree of impact, production enthusiasm has been reduced, the market demand is weak. Coupled with the domestic environmental wind more tense, low-nickel iron enterprises still maintain a low level, production has declined, but the trend of downstream steel prices pressure, steel procurement will be low, the transaction is more deserted. June nickel iron production showed a significant decline in prices fell after a certain degree of gradually stabilized. Follow-up due to Indonesia Qingshan stainless steel production capacity, its production and production of nickel iron will also be part of the need to meet the demand for stainless steel production in Indonesia, shipped back to the domestic decline in nickel iron content, the latter part of the domestic supply of nickel iron still need to make up domestic production , But will be subject to the domestic stainless steel enterprises will purchase late.
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Downstream stainless steel faces inventory pressure
With the June stainless steel mills or due to environmental protection or profits have been reduced, the stainless steel inventory to be more rapid digestion process, coupled with pre-demand side of the library also once boosted the changes in market demand, coupled with the black line up, stainless steel Prices have rebounded, stainless steel production enterprises gradually return to work, coupled with Jiangsu Dulong resumption of production, for raw materials have a certain procurement needs, the formation of the stage of boost. But the current stainless steel consumption in the off-season, the latter part of the overall market demand situation will continue to control the overall stainless steel chain, the recent inventory to have played a rebound in the price of the effect, but the continued height of the expected future demand for counter-control, Stronger further improvement is expected to occur.
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Nickel price trend by the macro effects of the material is more significant, the current market negative factors in the early decline after the digestion, but not too strong support for incremental profits, the latter need to see the downstream inventory decline, the production continues to have a more intense Of the raw materials to make up the demand for reinforcement. While the supply side of the lack of profits, the Philippines is the supply of iron ore season is the lack of strong rebound in nickel power, not to mention the pace of global nickel inventory is still to the long-term negative suppression. Within the disk nickel price 1709 weak consolidation pattern continued, 8000 mark the following concussion trend continued.
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