Multi-positive role, glacial acetic acid market rose again

Into September, the domestic glacial acetic acid market should be expected to decline in the market, prices once again ushered in the rise. From 2016 and 2017 price comparison point of view, the highest market in 2016 in mid-December, East China average price of 3020 yuan / ton. As of the current market in 2017 three wave rally, which in mid-June the average price of 3090 yuan / ton. September East China acetic acid market to reach 3020-3100 yuan / ton to the price level is high. So should the bearish in September, why reversal up?

Factor one: multi-positive support raw materials continue to rise in methanol

Supply side tight, leading to raw material prices continue to rise in methanol. One is part of the installation overhaul, such as Inner Mongolia Jiutai, Shandong Yankuang Guohong, the supply was significantly reduced; the second is the start of the northwest olefins, methanol sales decline; Third, the United States, “Harvey” hurricane affect multiple sets of methanol plant parking, Southeast Asia 9-10 month maintenance focus, are leading to late imports shrinkage. Multi-positive support, the domestic methanol prices from mid-August began to rise, to the end of the rally more pressing.

Factor 2: acetic acid supply downturn enterprises pushed up emboldened

Beginning in June, the domestic glacial acetic acid market into the supply shortage stage, the East China region for several months there is a gap. First, the equipment turns overhaul, the second is a large number of exports in July exports up to 58,000 tons, the highest point for the history of exports. Both factors lead to domestic tight cargo. To the situation in early September has not yet eased. During the period, although Yankuang and Longyu stocks rose to high, but soon balanced out. In addition, the East China Jiangsu device in October there may be maintenance, and there are enterprises to overseas transfer cargo plan.

Factor three: some strong demand for enterprises to take goods better

Although the annual environmental protection calls higher, and the North is indeed a greater impact on environmental protection. But in the case of acetic acid enterprises tight, the downstream just need to be able to digest the supply of supply. Not to mention the downstream PTA continued high during the year, PTA operating rate last week reached 75-76%, and the previous period also continued high. In addition, the device production is PTA hot talk topic this year, as of now about 4.4 million tons of equipment production, including Jiangyin Hanbang 600,000 tons / year, Huabin 1.4 million tons / year, Xianglu 1.5 million tons / year Device, another Peng Wei Petrochemical restart 90 million tons / year device.
Domestic ethylene prices recently rose sharply, foreign factors due to the United States, “Harvey” hurricane led to part of the device parking, the international market prices rose sharply. Domestic downstream PVA price support, resulting in manufacturers to increase production, and VAE emulsion market is good, vinyl acetate consumption increased, so tight situation, the enterprise offer hit 7700 yuan / ton. Enterprise operating rate is also significantly improved, the current operating rate increased to 63%.

Other downstream chloroacetic acid due to the digestion of hydrochloric acid is still suppressed to the start of chloroacetic acid. But attracted by high profits, liquid chlorine down a large margin, continued to pay more than a thousand dollars. Hebei area of ​​chloroacetic acid started to recover from the previous period, the demand for acetic acid has been back to temperature.

Overall, the glacial acetic acid market rose again, for the multi-positive role. But the raw material rose to high prices of methanol, began to fall, the loss of support on the cost side. And acetic acid plant started to upgrade, Anhui inaction device around September 8 restart, supply is expected to upgrade. And the current high price of acetic acid, the downstream purchase intention more cautious. Comprehensive consideration, the supply is still dominant market, the recent market is still high and strong, do not rule out the possibility of continued to rise.