After the National Day holiday, domestic viscose staple fiber continued to operate in a weak position, and the overall price fell slightly. After the festival, some manufacturers released an offer increase of 200 yuan/ton, but the terminal new orders were light, the downstream spinning was not enthusiastic enough to follow up, the overall deal was not followed up, the negotiated price was still basically maintained, and the wait-and-see mood was strong; The price fell back on the 13th, and the overall price fell slightly. The start-up rate of viscose staple fiber industry is maintained. At present, the overall load is about 60%. Under the loss operation of the manufacturer, the overall low start-up may continue. Renmian yarn continued its weak trend, the long holiday was basically over, some enterprises that had stopped work during the festival resumed work in succession, and the commencement of work gradually recovered to the pre festival level, with the overall price remaining stable

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of October 14, 2022, the ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 13760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton, or 0.58%, compared with the price before the festival. The price of rayon yarn remained stable. As of October 14, 2022 (30S, ring spinning, first class), the average ex factory price was 18166 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price before the festival.

Price rise and fall chart of viscose staple fiber/rayon yarn industry chain

Inventory and demand

The start-up rate of viscose staple fiber industry is maintained. At present, the overall load is about 60%. Under the loss operation of the manufacturer, the overall low start-up may continue. In addition, the cotton yarn production of the tourists decreased. Recently, most viscose staple fiber factories have no obvious negative intention, and the overall supply pressure of the industry is average. The downstream still maintained the level of just in demand procurement, and the inventory of finished products of cotton yarn enterprises rose by a narrow margin. The downstream orders of rayon yarn were not as expected, the terminal demand showed no signs of improvement, and the willingness to take delivery of goods was not high in the short term, and the demand side continued to operate weakly.

Future market forecast

In terms of demand, the weak market situation is difficult to ease, and enterprise operations still focus on priority shipping; The inventory transfer of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn was blocked, and the market was pessimistic. Analysts from the business community predicted that the industrial chain of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn would continue to operate in a weak position, and the price of viscose staple fiber was easy to fall but difficult to rise.

On the 13th, the domestic polyethylene spot market was dominated by weakness, and the ex factory prices of the three major varieties fell to varying degrees, ranging from 50-150 yuan/ton. International crude oil has successively lowered the negative market mentality. Although agricultural film is in the peak demand season, the downstream operating rate is low. With the completion of a new round of replenishment, the enthusiasm for entering the market has weakened. The majority of traders follow the downward quotation, mainly for shipment. It is estimated that there is still a possibility of decline in the short term.

On the cost side, crude oil fell for two consecutive days, styrene continued to weaken, pure benzene market shipment mentality, and prices continued to fall. Today, the domestic price of pure benzene is 8200-8400 yuan/ton.

With the shutdown of large aniline devices, the supply of aniline market was further tightened. At present, the market supply is limited, and the holder is reluctant to sell at a low price, while the transaction at a high price. In the later period, there are still aniline devices planned to stop, and aniline is expected to continue to rise.

After the National Day holiday, affected by the surge of crude oil, the market was positive, and started the mode of pulling up for three consecutive days. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average offer of domestic acetone market was 5750 yuan/ton on October 7 (i.e. the price before the festival), and 6325 yuan/ton on October 10, up 10% on the third day. The offer in the East China market is about 6100-6150 yuan/ton, the offer in South China is 6200 yuan/ton, and the offer in North China and surrounding areas of Shandong is 6400-6450 yuan/ton

Trend Chart of Average Acetone Market Price in Mainstream Regions of China

During the festival, crude oil futures rose sharply. As an important petrochemical product, acetone had a great impact from the macro perspective. After the holiday, the settlement price of the main WTI contract in the United States was 92.64 dollars/barrel, up 16.5% during the holiday. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 97.92 dollars/barrel, up 15% during the holiday. The expected tightening of oil supply is mainly due to the sharp production reduction of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) and the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. On October 9, Sinopec raised the listing price of acetone in East China by 500 yuan/ton to 6000 yuan/ton, Sinopec raised the listing price of acetone in North China by 400 yuan/ton to 6100 yuan/ton, and on October 10, Lihua Yiweiyuan raised the listing price by 200 yuan/ton to 6400 yuan/ton. The factory price rose again, and the profits of phenol ketone enterprises rose.

The market circulation supply is still tight. During the National Day, the import goods were delayed to arrive, and the port stock dropped to 20000 tons. The market circulation goods again entered a tense situation, and the supply of goods was concentrated in the hands of a few traders. The cargo holders were positive. In addition, acetone continued to rise before the festival, and some downstream companies had to stock up because of the impact of costs. After the festival, they had to purchase again, and the market activity rose again after the festival.

After the festival, the single up regulation of upstream pure benzene has strong support for acetone. Affected by the surge of crude oil during the holiday, the opening order of pure benzene was raised on the first day after the holiday. On the 10th, the mainstream transaction price in East China was 8250-8280 yuan/ton, while that in Shandong was 8300-8350 yuan/ton. After the continuous rise, many traders took profits and the increase slowed down. At present, Shandong is still strong, the local refinery has limited inventory, and downstream procurement is still good.

The downstream bisphenol A market fluctuated in a narrow range as a whole. Although the negotiation declined, it still remained at a high level. The market negotiation was at 15400-15600 yuan/ton. The downstream cost pressure continued to rise before the festival, and the demand decreased. The downstream epoxy resin and PC also declined as a whole, increasing their profit margin. The first auction after the festival fell significantly. At present, the mentality of both the buyer and the seller is more tangled, and the short-term narrow range adjustment of bisphenol A is mainly.

With the port replenishing in succession, and the purchase of high priced raw materials slowed down after the terminal just needed replenishing for a period of time, on the afternoon of the 10th, the market saw that the negotiation in East China was somewhat loose, and the intention of traders to ship increased, but other regions were still nervous, the market transaction volume was insufficient, and the transaction was average. The business agency expects the domestic acetone market to fluctuate in a narrow range, focusing on the actual orders on the market.

In the morning opening, Lihua Yiwei Yuan raised the price by 200 yuan to 6400 yuan/ton, which injected a boost into the market. In the case of strong concentration of supply, the traders kept pushing up, while the holders were more positive. The pushing up mood was strong. The inventory of some factories before the festival was average, and the inquiry after the festival was active. They paid attention to the actual orders on the market.

The offer of acetone in major mainstream markets in China today is as follows:

Region, quotation, rise and fall

East China., 6100., 0

Shandong, 6420., 170

Yanshan Prefecture., 6400., 160

South China, 6300., 100