Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the price of domestic urea market fell slightly this week, from 2530.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2506.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 0.95%, 18.17% YoY. On October 23, the urea commodity index was 116.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.48% from the highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15) in the cycle, and up 109.64% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Average cost support, weak downstream demand and weak urea supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in China fell slightly this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream market of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG fell slightly, from 6370.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6332.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 0.60%, 7.88% lower than the same period last year; The price of anthracite was consolidated at a high level, and Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) was 1850 yuan/ton. Upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the price support for urea was average. The price of melamine at the downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 8250.00 yuan/ton at the weekend to 8266.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 0.20%.

In terms of demand, agricultural demand is small and industrial demand is weak. The production of rubber sheet plants is low, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. The production of compound fertilizer plants is declining, and the demand for urea is weakening. The price of melamine was consolidated at a high level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. In terms of supply, Shanxi has limited production for environmental protection, and the daily output of urea is below 150000 tons.

Urea price may fall slightly

In late October, the domestic urea market may fall slightly. The urea analysts of the business community believed that the price of anthracite in the upstream of urea was consolidated at a high level, and the urea cost was well supported. However, the downstream agricultural demand is general, the industrial demand is weak, and the daily urea production has a downward trend. In the future, urea may decline in a narrow range.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 20, the price of PET water bottle has been operating in a narrow and weak range. At present, the average price is 7690 yuan/ton, which is 5.88% lower than the price of the same period last week, about 400 yuan/ton. The overall market is operating in a narrow and weak range. At present, the focus of negotiations is low, the market shipments are general, the logistics are smooth, and the operating rate is stable.

The domestic PET price is operating in a narrow range and weak. Compared with the same period last week, the price has dropped 5.88%, with a drop of 400 yuan/ton. At present, the market operation rate is normal, the manufacturers are active in shipping, the logistics is smooth, and the supply side is normal. The overall market transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is fair, and the downstream readiness is general. At present, the mainstream price is about 7700 yuan/ton, with a slight decline and weak operation.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: On October 19, the rubber and plastic index was 697 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 34.25% from the highest point in the cycle 1060 points (March 14, 2012), and up 32.01% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to PET analysts from the business community, the mainstream price of PET market is expected to be around 7800 yuan/ton in the short term, with a narrow range and weak operation.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average market price of the manufacturers of petroleum asphalt in Shandong Province on October 19 was 4472 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous trading day and 21.73% year on year. On October 19, the closing price of domestic asphalt futures was 3852 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan or 2.41% from the previous trading day.

The decline of crude oil continued, driving asphalt futures down rapidly. In terms of spot goods, the demand support is insufficient. The atmosphere of the domestic asphalt spot market is sluggish. The prices of different regions are slightly different. Prices fell in most regions.

In the short term, the domestic asphalt market price is still likely to decline.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 18, the average price of domestic industrial grade cyclohexane was 8266.67 yuan/ton, up 2.48% compared with yesterday’s price. The price was strong, rising slightly. At present, the operating rate is normal, the supply side is stable, the logistics is smooth, and the delivery atmosphere is general.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of sulfur in East China was 1510 yuan/ton on October 14, down 3.21% from last weekend, and the market was weak.

The downstream sulfuric acid market is running steadily, the supply and demand in the plant are relatively balanced, the enterprise’s quotation is temporarily stable, the monoammonium phosphate market is mainly stable, the autumn fertilizer consumption is approaching the end, the market transaction and investment are weak, the overall downstream demand is weak, and the support for the sulfur market is insufficient. The sulfur refinery in Shandong has poor shipment, the enterprise’s quotation is lowered according to its own shipment situation, and it is expected that the short-term sulfur market will wait and sort out, specifically focusing on the downstream follow-up.