1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fell slightly on the 22nd, with the spot price of 63106 yuan/ton, 0.15% lower than the previous trading day and 8.8% lower than the same period last year.

The US dollar surged to a 20-year high, and Luntong closed 0.84% lower overnight. Macro empty sentiment increased. On the supply side, the interference from overseas mines has temporarily ended, and the supply has gradually eased. As some smelters entered the maintenance state in September, TC continued to rise slightly by 0.54 dollars/ton month on month to 82.50 dollars/ton, and the supply at the mine end was looser than that at the smelting end. On the demand side, affected by real estate, epidemic, export and other factors this year, household appliances, electric tools and other industries have always been in a downturn. The sluggish supply and demand put pressure on copper prices. However, in the late September, there was some expectation for the downstream to stock up for the National Day holiday, which supported copper prices. It was expected that copper would have a strong trend of short-term shocks.

Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (September 21): 7725.00 yuan/ton

Key points for analysis: The cryolite market in Henan is running smoothly, and the average price of cryolite production is flat compared with the previous working day. The manufacturer reported that the upstream construction started at a low level, the raw materials were still tight, superimposed on the impact of high prices of coal, natural gas, etc., the production cost of the enterprise was under great pressure, the price of cryolite was mainly high, and the enthusiasm of downstream parties to enter the market was fair. The purchase was followed up as needed, the enterprise’s shipment was smooth, and the supply and demand in the site were relatively balanced.

Future market forecast: the short-term cryolite market continues to be high and firm, with the price temporarily stable as the main factor. The future market will focus on the market supply.

The factory raised the price by 200 yuan/ton, and all major mainstream markets in China kept up with the increase. The phenol market continued to hit a new high, with the increase of about 200 yuan/ton in East China, and other mainstream phenol trading regions also followed.

The offer of phenol in various markets nationwide is as follows:

Region, quotation, rise and fall

East China., 10850., 200

Shandong region., 10950., 180

Yanshan surrounding area, 10850, 150

South China, 10950, 200

After the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the domestic EVA market continued to rise, showing a trend of first rising and then stabilizing, with the focus moving upward. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 20166.67 yuan/ton on September 12, and 20766.67 yuan/ton on September 19, with a weekly increase of 2.98%, down 11.88% compared with the same period last year.

As of September 19, EVA factory quotation is as follows:

Product., manufacturer., model., ex factory price

EVA., Yanshan Petrochemical., 18J3., 21000 yuan/ton

EVA., Beijing Organic., Y2022., 19500 yuan/ton

EVA., Yangzi BASF., V5110J., 21800 yuan/ton

This week, the domestic EVA market continued to rise, and the price continued to rise. The increase in the week was mainly concentrated after the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, with a strong trend. After the festival, the ex factory prices of petrochemical enterprises reported continuously high, which brought obvious confidence to the market. In addition, the supply of some bidding goods continued to increase, which was good for the market mentality. The mentality of businessmen was good, and the price went up to a certain extent. However, in terms of demand, although Jinjiu ushered in the peak demand season, the demand for foaming materials did not increase as expected. Most of them were just in need of follow-up. The demand for photovoltaic materials was stable, and there was no change. The wait-and-see mood of the industry was strong, and the market trading atmosphere was general.

After the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, EVA has obviously increased, and then entered the consolidation stage. The current market has obvious positive factors, and the price is relatively firm. However, due to the fact that the increase of terminal demand did not meet the expectation, the downstream was cautious, Duowei kept making up on demand, and the wait-and-see mood was strong, which brought some restraint to the rising market. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic EVA market price will be relatively strong.

Spot price: The spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber rose slightly this week (9.13-9.16). According to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was about 7926 yuan/ton on September 16, up 1.39% from last week and 10.84% from the same period last year.

Futures market: the main force of short fiber futures this week opened at a high level, with a narrow range of concussion and small rise. On Friday, the staple fiber PF futures contract closed at 7508, up 0.56% from the closing price last week. The settlement price is 7470 yuan. This week, the main domestic staple fiber upstream raw material PTA futures fell 0.25% to close at 5668, and the main ethylene glycol futures fell 0.78% to close at 4430.

The price of international crude oil futures fell slightly this week due to the impact of the Federal Reserve’s policy expectation of continuing to raise interest rates aggressively, and US oil fell 1.57% this week (as of 17:05 Beijing time). In the near future, PTA devices continue to be overhauled and shut down to reduce the load. The supply and demand of raw material PX is tight, and the price is firm. Downstream commencement is gradually rising. PTA continues to go to the warehouse, and the spot price is stronger. Affected by the typhoon, the port inventory of ethylene glycol has declined significantly, the operating rate of the downstream traditional peak season has rebounded, the delivery of goods has increased, and the spot price of ethylene glycol has risen slightly. The overall demand for pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn has slightly improved, and the spot transaction has improved compared with the previous period. The overall load of the staple fiber factory has decreased recently, and the supply has decreased. The weaving factory of the downstream yarn factory has turned from the off-season to the peak season. The demand has improved, and the staple fiber cash and futures prices have risen slightly.

In the future, the cost of staple fiber still has strong support. Downstream demand is gradually improving. In terms of spot goods, Yizheng Chemical Fiber has recently reduced production. However, after the new production capacity of Xinfengming is put into operation and some major factories are overhauled, it may restart. The supply is under pressure. The price of staple fiber may fluctuate strongly in the short term. Pay attention to the trend of raw materials and the recovery of downstream orders.