Price trend

According to the data from the bulk list of business cooperatives, the POM market fell in September, and the spot prices of various brands fell significantly. As of September 29, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection molding sample enterprises of the business community was about 13666.67 yuan/ton, up or down by – 15.11% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain. However, the terminal enterprises are in a strong wait-and-see mood, cautious in purchasing, and the market negotiation atmosphere is light. In addition, the domestic methanol market is expected to decline, and the formaldehyde market is expected to decline mainly in the short term.

Upstream formaldehyde market rose, and POM cost side support was strengthened. In terms of industry load, the overall load of domestic POM industry enterprises was basically full this month. At the end of the month, individual enterprises had short maintenance, and the supply of goods was abundant, resulting in accumulation of inventory. There is strong competition on the market, and the manufacturers and midstream customers prefer to reduce the price for shipment. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is generally restricted by profit and other factors, and its position is not high. On the purchasing side, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, buying up rather than buying down, and the overall demand is weak. In addition, in the short term, there is no demand forecast in the downstream, and the load has not risen significantly with the peak plastic consumption season. Traders tend to ship at low prices, and the price is generally depressed. On the market, delivery is mainly small orders. It is difficult for high price goods to be shipped. The merchants only talk about it, and there are many margins.

Future market forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that the decline of the domestic POM market in September has increased, the upstream formaldehyde market has risen, and the POM cost support is fair. The load of POM industry is high, and there is pressure on the supply side. The demand follow-up of downstream enterprises has not improved, and the purchase is mainly scattered. Under the situation that the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to ease, formaldehyde is expected to fall back next month, and POM prices are expected to continue to be weak in the short term.

Price trend of ethylene oxide

According to the data of the business society, the spot price of ethylene oxide in China ran smoothly on September 28, with the average market price of 7500 yuan/ton, which was 16.58% higher than the average market price of 6433.33 yuan/ton on August 23.

Since August, the price of ethylene oxide has been relatively strong, and the domestic ethylene oxide market has been running smoothly in the near future.

Recent fundamentals of ethylene oxide

From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply of ethylene oxide at the supply end has increased in the near future, some of the shutdown devices in the early stage have started to resume production, and some of the devices are expected to restart, so the overall supply is expected to increase before the festival. On the demand side, the market of downstream polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer is weak in the near future, and the stock of raw materials before the festival is less than expected.

From the perspective of cost, the price of upstream raw material ethylene has declined in the near future, and the supporting effect of cost on the price of ethylene oxide has weakened; The price of polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer in the downstream has dropped slightly, and it is sensitive to high priced raw materials. At present, the capacity utilization rate of polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer is about 40%.

Future market forecast

At present, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand is weak. The business community expects that the price of ethylene oxide will be dominated by weak sideways shocks in the short term. In the future, we will wait and see the incremental changes in the supply side.

On September 27, the mainstream quotation range of 1 # tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market was 185500-188500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 187000 yuan/ton, up 4000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

On the night of the 26th, the US dollar index hit a new 20 year high again and closed at 114.69. The metal market was under general pressure. In the night market, Shanghai Tin rose by 3.37% against the trend. In the morning market of the 27th, Shanghai Tin continued its overnight trend and rose by more than 3%. By the end of the 27th, the main contract of Shanghai Tin closed at 177190 yuan/ton, up 5.07%.

In the spot market, the refinery quoted actively this morning, with a heavy attitude of price fixing. However, as the price rebounded today, the trade market trading was slightly light, and it was generally wait-and-see oriented. When the price was low a few days ago, the stock had been basically completed before the festival, so the market today was generally cold. There is no obvious change in the supply and demand, which is still a pattern of weak supply and demand. In terms of supply, the supply of imported goods increased significantly, the quotation of imported goods in the market increased, and the domestic tin ingot supply was relatively loose as a whole. The overall performance of downstream demand is not outstanding, and procurement on demand is maintained. As the overall inventory of tin is low, it is obviously affected by macro disturbance and capital. The business community expects that the future tin price will still be affected more by macro influence, mainly maintaining a wide range of shocks.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of sulfur in East China was 1323.33 yuan/ton on September 26, a 5.30% increase over the previous working day, and the market was on the rise.

The overall trend of sulfuric acid market in the downstream has been stable. The quotation in some regions has been raised according to the shipment situation. The ammonium phosphate market is mainly stable, and the transaction atmosphere is fair. The downstream demand has improved, and the support for the sulfur market has been strengthened. The sulfur downstream factories in Shandong are active in receiving goods, and the refinery’s shipment is relatively smooth. The port is optimistic because of the rising stock market in the downstream before the festival, which gives the market a positive effect. The short-term sulfur market is waiting to be sorted out and operated, Pay special attention to the downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of the business cooperative, the average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in the domestic market was 10320 yuan/ton on September 19, and 10130 yuan/ton on September 23. This week, the domestic price of thermal phosphoric acid fell 1.84%.

2、 Market analysis

The phosphoric acid market price stopped rising this week and turned down. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus fell back, the cost support weakened, and the price of phosphoric acid decreased accordingly. At present, the downstream is purchased on demand, mainly on the sidelines. As of September 23, the average market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was about 10130 yuan/ton. The ex factory quotation of 85 content thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is 9800-10800 yuan/ton, that in Yunnan is 10000 yuan/ton, that in Hubei is 9850 yuan/ton, that in Hubei is 9500 yuan/ton, and that in Nanjing is 9800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic market for medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore continued to operate steadily this week. Up to now, the reference price of phosphate rock is 1064.00. The site is generally quiet, with little change in information. At present, the supply side is still tight, and the supply side continues to provide high support for the market. From the demand side, the low commencement of downstream phosphate fertilizer has brought some concern to the market.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the price of yellow phosphorus market fell slightly this week. At present, the market transaction is fair. Downstream stock has slowed down compared with last week, and inquiries have increased. The actual transaction is more cautious and more wait-and-see. Most manufacturers suspend the external quotation, and single discussion is preferred. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 36000-37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 36000 yuan/ton.

3、 Future market forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts of the business association believe that the rise of the phosphoric acid market fell back this week due to the impact of the upstream yellow phosphorus market. Under the downward trend of the market, the over-the-counter trading of phosphoric acid is cautious. Under the condition that the raw material market trend is not clear, it is expected that the phosphoric acid market price will be dominated by weak and stable operation in the short term.