According to the monitoring data of business society, the polyacrylamide commodity index on July 22 was 95.58, down 0.43 points from yesterday, down 14.29% from the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 points (2021-11-03), and up 15.31% from the lowest point of 82.89 points on August 2, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

Commodity prices: according to the data monitoring of business agency, this week (July 18-23), the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market in China decreased slightly, of which the main price was 15728.57 yuan / ton on the 18th (Monday), and 15642.86 yuan / ton on the 23rd (Saturday), with a weekly decrease of 0.54%. This week, the production of the main manufacturer is normal, the market inventory is sufficient, the downstream demand is light, and the transaction is general.

Industry chain: upstream raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of business agency, this week (July 18-22), the market price of acrylonitrile apron fell to 9820 yuan / ton from 10360 yuan / ton on Monday, with a weekly decline of 5.21%. On the one hand, the supply side of the domestic acrylonitrile industry is still loose. On the other hand, downstream construction continues to decline, market transactions are deadlocked, and traders sell inventory at low prices. At present, the fundamentals of oversupply drag the acrylonitrile market, which is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to fluctuate and decline in the later period.

Raw material acrylic acid: according to the data of business news agency, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China this week (July 18-22) was slightly increased from 10333.33 yuan / ton to 10400 yuan / ton, with a slight increase of 0.65% this week. Propylene, the main raw material, has been quoted at 7250-7350 yuan / ton in the Shandong market by the end of this week. It continues the weak trend of last week, opening low and going low. Although the factory intends to raise the price, the downstream does not buy it, and the price falls down with the trend. The resumption of production of maintenance enterprises and the production of new devices have led to loose propylene supply and intensified market competition. At the same time, the international crude oil is weak and volatile, and the support is slightly weak. Under the influence of multiple bad news, the propylene market is difficult to change.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 5802 yuan / ton on July 18 and 6110 yuan / ton on July 22. This week, the bidding price of feed gas was raised, which gave favorable support to liquefied natural gas. The continuous rise of foreign gas has also driven the continuous rise of domestic liquefied natural gas. The willingness to replenish natural gas has increased under the mentality of buying up rather than buying down in the downstream. According to the analysis, the recent LNG market trend is concentrated higher, and the market is running better. In the case of good demand release, low-cost liquid plants may continue to raise prices, and it is expected that the price of liquefied natural gas will continue to dominate in the short term.

Future forecast: this week, the cost of raw materials rose less and fell more, the cost support was not strong, the market spot inventory was sufficient, the downstream demand was weak, and the market mentality was empty. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market in the future will continue to be stable and weak.

Region, Price (yuan / ton), Rise and fall (yuan / ton)

Jiangxi region, 10500-10900., 0

Henan Province, 10500-11000., 0

Inner Mongolia, 10600-10600., 0

Shandong region, 10500-10900., 0

Fujian, 10400-10800., 0

On July 21, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 10500-10800 yuan / ton. The ex factory price trend of the on-site merchants was temporarily stable. The operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers rose, and the on-site supply was sufficient. Recently, the fluorite price rose slightly, but the downstream refrigerant market continued to decline, and the on-site procurement was not active. On the whole, it is expected that the on-site hydrofluoric acid price trend will be temporarily stable in the later period.

Aluminum price stopped falling and stabilized

 
According to the data of business agency, on July 20, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 17890 yuan / ton, a daily decrease of 0.11%, a decrease of 6.17% from the average market price of 19066.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (7.1), and an increase of 6.12% from the average market price of 19056.67 yuan / ton in the same period last year.

Periodical destocking is obvious

At present, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions has been greatly removed. As of the 18th, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions was 682000 tons, down 148000 tons from the same period last year.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride declined. As of the 19th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 7975 yuan / ton. The on-site spot supply was sufficient, and the marketing situation was general.

The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly, and the delivery situation in the phthalic anhydride market was general. Recently, the downstream demand changed little, the price trend of upstream orthobenzene fell sharply, the plasticizer market fell, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the market was normal, and the market price of phthalic anhydride was affected by the downstream, and the price trend fell. The operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers has not changed much. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the market is less than 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the market price trend is mainly falling. The downstream plasticizer industry market is declining, and the actual transaction is normal. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has declined, and the high-end transactions on the floor are limited. The mainstream of the adjacent method source negotiation in East China is 7900-8000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of the naphthalene method source negotiation is 7800-7900 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 8100-8200 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. The recent decline in the market of phthalic anhydride is expected to continue to decline in the market price of phthalic anhydride in the later period.

Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (July 18):7650 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on July 18, the cryolite price trend was stable, and the average production price in Henan was flat compared with the previous working day. At present, the shortage of raw materials still exists. The superimposed fuel cost is high, the production cost of enterprises is large, the inventory of cryolite enterprises is tight, the downstream demand is OK, and the shipment of enterprises is relatively smooth, supporting the continued high operation of cryolite prices.

Aftermarket forecast: the short-term cryolite market is mainly stable for the time being, and the price may be reduced. The aftermarket will pay attention to the market supply.