Magnesium metal trend in July

In July, the daily average price of domestic magnesium ingots fluctuated between 23000-27000 yuan / ton, and the average price in the cycle was 24860.92 yuan / ton, with a rise and fall of -11.46%. This month, under the dilemma of sufficient supply and weak demand, the magnesium market is struggling, falling all the way to 24000 yuan / ton. In the face of oversupply, magnesium plants choose to stop production for maintenance to relieve the pressure. Considering that there is basically no profit or even loss, the factory’s price stabilization mood is more and more obvious, but the downstream demand is still bleak, and the magnesium price has to be lowered.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, as of July 29, the tax included spot exchange in the magnesium ingot Market was 23166.67 yuan / ton, down about 3000 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month, down 11.46%, up 11.38% from the same period last year.

Market analysis

Slight increase in exports

According to customs statistics, the export of magnesium ingots in June was 25285.7 tons, with a month on month increase of 8.1% and a year-on-year increase of 10.3%; The export of magnesium alloy was 12276 tons, with a month on month decrease of 6.1% and a year-on-year increase of 76.7%; The export of magnesium powder was 5686.7 tons, with a month on month decrease of 7.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%.

Increased maintenance and reduced production

In June, China’s magnesium ingot production was 81265 tons, a month on month decrease of 5.31%, a year-on-year increase of 18.04%, and the operating rate was 69.76%. In June, due to the high temperature maintenance in summer, due to the weather, the production efficiency was reduced, the labor cost was increased, and the weak demand side, some magnesium plants took the initiative to stop production due to the lack of funds, and the output of magnesium ingots was significantly reduced.

From the perspective of raw material relationship

Ferrosilicon fell 11.04% in July

In terms of ferrosilicon, the price of ferrosilicon first fell and then rose in July. As of July 29, the mainstream quotation in Ningxia fluctuated in the range of 7600-7800 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the month, the price of ferrosilicon fell sharply, and the market quotation was lower than the expectations of all parties, approaching the production cost line. The information of market participants was poor. Ferrosilicon manufacturers began to reduce production and overhaul intensively. The large-scale production reduction in the middle and late period made the spot stop falling to a certain extent, and the futures disk also fluctuated and rebounded, Coupled with a new round of steel bidding at the end of the month, the price of ferrosilicon is gradually repaired.

Coke fell 26.67% in July

In terms of coke, the coke market experienced three rounds of increases and decreases in July, with a reduction of 600 yuan / ton in the month. The negative feedback of downstream steel enterprises on limiting production suppressed the coke price. Coking enterprises suffered serious losses, and coke enterprises further increased their efforts to limit production, with most enterprises limiting production by 30-50%. At present, under the two weak patterns of coke supply and demand, it is expected that the overall operation will remain weak.

Aftermarket forecast

In general, under the condition of light demand in the magnesium market, downstream customers have significantly reduced the price compared with the price, and the raw material cost price has weakened, magnesium ingots lack positive factors, and the downward pressure on magnesium prices is still there. Considering that the price has reached the bottom, there is not much room for decline. It is expected that the magnesium market will be weak in the short term, and the price will be gradually repaired in mid and late August.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (July 28):2392 yuan / ton

On July 28, the domestic comprehensive price of urea fell slightly, down 38 yuan / ton from July 27, a decrease of 1.56%, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.88%. The upstream cost support is general, the downstream agricultural demand is weakened, and the industrial demand is insufficient. The sales pressure of urea manufacturers increased, and the price was reduced to attract orders. During the overhaul of some manufacturers, the daily output of urea fell to about 147000 tons, and there is still a decline expectation.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic urea market price will be adjusted at a low level, and the average market price will be about 2350 yuan / ton.

The price of domestic factories remained stable this week, and the listing price was stable at 9200-9400 yuan / ton. Yesterday, pure benzene was facing a warm market, but the demand side of phenol was low, the downstream intended price was low, the shippers were firm, the offer was not smooth, and the actual orders made more profits. On the whole, the market negotiation was weak and the transaction was insufficient. Theoretically, the theoretical profit value of phenol ketone factory is still at a loss, but it has eased. The business agency predicts that the negotiated price in East China will remain at 9000 yuan / ton. The recent market is flat, and it will pay attention to the demand side and the impact of the surrounding environment in the short term.

Phenol offers in various markets across the country on the previous trading day are as follows:

Region, quotation, rise and fall

East China, 9000-9100, -150

Shandong, 9250, -100

Surrounding areas of Yanshan, 9250, -100

South China. 9150., -150

As of July 26, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 3900.00 yuan / ton, unchanged from last Thursday (July 21), down 13.97% from June 26 and 59.66% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, according to the bulk list data of business society.

Recently (7.21-7.26), the domestic industrial 85% formic acid market has been running smoothly. Recently, the prices of upstream products have risen and fallen, and the cost impact is limited. The downstream maintains on-demand procurement, the enthusiasm for inquiry procurement is general, the market transaction is moderate, and the focus of negotiation in the industrial grade 85% formic acid market is stable.

In terms of cost: upstream caustic soda, caustic soda enterprises flexibly adjust their quotations, but mainly wait-and-see attitude, and it is comprehensively expected that they will mainly maintain the consolidation trend in the later stage; Upstream liquid ammonia, on the 26th, the rise of liquid ammonia Market in Shandong slowed down, and some traders stopped rising and stabilized. Today’s market quotation did not change much from yesterday’s; Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price fell on July 26; Upstream methanol, according to the monitoring data of business agency, from July 18 to 25, the average price of domestic methanol market rose from 2393 yuan / ton to 2432 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.62% in the cycle, a price decrease of 3.47% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 5.90%.

According to the formic acid analysts of business society, the current cost support is general, and the market transactions are on demand. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may operate stably in the short term.

On July 25, the average market price of TDI in East China was 16450 yuan / ton, down 1.49% from the previous working day, and the market was weak. At present, the market news is quiet, the foreign trade in the terminal industry is poor, the downstream market purchase is weak, the demand continues to be weak, the operator’s mentality is cautious and wait-and-see, the goods holders continue to sell at a profit, and the quotation is reduced. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 16200 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 16500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

It is expected that the short-term TDI market will be weak and the price range will fluctuate. Specific attention will be paid to the market supply and downstream follow-up.