1、 Price trend

Latest price (May 19): 8637.5 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on May 19, the average domestic spot price of pvc5 was 8637.5 yuan / ton, down 0.99% from the previous trading day and 6.62% year-on-year. At present, the futures price is falling, the offer in the spot market is falling, the market trading is relatively flat, the downstream demand continues to maintain rigid demand, and the wait-and-see attitude is obvious. In addition, the export has weakened, which has suppressed the rich domestic atmosphere, and the focus of the PVC market has shifted downward. Up to now, the price of raw calcium carbide is about 4400-4500 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC is 8300-8950 yuan / ton.

The PVC market is expected to weaken.

Latest price (May 18): 6872 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on May 18, the average price of domestic LNG market was 6872 yuan / ton, down 0.52% from the previous day and up 85.73% year-on-year. At present, the market supply is abundant, the demand in the off-season is weakened, the receiving capacity of downstream users is general, and the price of inlet air is reduced, which drives the domestic liquid price to weaken steadily. The market wait-and-see mood is rising, and the actual transaction is mainly negotiation.

It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be stable and down in the short term.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (May 17): 5070 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today’s acetic acid market price trend is stable, and the average market price in East China is the same as that of the previous working day. At present, the unit maintenance and low load operation of individual enterprises in the acetic acid market, the market supply is tight, and there is no pressure on the enterprise inventory. The downstream purchase in the market this week is rational, and the purchase is mainly on demand. The operators hold a wait-and-see attitude, and most manufacturers’ quotations operate stably temporarily.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market is mainly stable and consolidated temporarily, with specific attention to the market supply.

Trade name: isooctanol

Latest price (May 16): 12566.67 yuan / ton

On May 16, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong fell slightly, down 133.33 yuan / ton or 1.05% compared with the price on May 13, and 24.75% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of propylene in the upstream is low, the cost support is general, the downstream DOP market has a downward trend, and the downstream demand is weakened.

Recently, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong may fluctuate slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 12500 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, toluene rebounded after falling this week. The price was 7460 yuan / ton on May 6 and 7540 yuan / ton on Friday (May 13), up 1.07% from last week; 25% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In the first half of the week, the price of toluene fell due to the wide decline of crude oil, the weakening of gasoline market and the weak downstream demand. In the second half of the week, with the rebound of crude oil and the rise of toluene prices in Asia, the focus of market participants shifted from domestic demand to export, the trading atmosphere improved and the price rebounded.

In terms of external trading, toluene rose in Asia this week. On Thursday (May 12), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $1058 / ton, a year-on-year increase of US $14 / ton, or 1.34%.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil rose after a wide decline this week, and the market fluctuated left and right under the fundamentals of good supply and bad demand. As of May 13, Brent fell 0.84 USD / barrel, or 0.75%; WTI rose $0.72/barrel, or 0.66%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China fell continuously this week. The price was 17550 yuan / ton on May 6 and 17250 yuan / ton on May 13, down 1.71% from last week and up 18.69% from the same period last year.

In terms of PX market, domestic PX rose broadly this week. On Friday (May 13), the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton, up 4.49% from last week and 45.31% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong rebounded after falling this week. The price was 8907.4 yuan / ton on May 6 and 8618 yuan / ton on May 13, down 3.25% from last week and up 14.29% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, in terms of crude oil, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is full of uncertainty, and the fear of tightening oil supply remains unabated. However, the high oil price is bad for the economy and demand, and there is still a risk of violent fluctuation superimposed on short-term crude oil. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

The opening of the Asian American arbitrage window will drive the increase of toluene exports, which will help to alleviate the bad news caused by weak domestic demand in the short term. Overall, if crude oil and outer disk continue to rise, it may drive toluene higher. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, the domestic gasoline market, the dynamics and demand of toluene and downstream devices, etc.