1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices fell slightly on the 6th, with the spot price of 72856.67 yuan / ton, down 1.24% from the previous day, up 5.5% from the beginning of the year and up 0.06% year-on-year.

U.S. stocks fell sharply, market risk appetite cooled, and Lun copper closed down 0.53% overnight. Weak global economic data dragged down metal demand, and the epidemic shrouded the top, suppressing the market bulls’ motivation to enter. Weak global economic data dragged down metal demand. Among them, the industrial data of Germany, the largest economy in Europe, fell more than expected, and the manufacturing activity of China, the world’s largest metal consumer, shrank in April, while the manufacturing activity of the United States, the world’s largest economy, also slowed in April, casting a shadow on the prospect of basic metal demand, adding that the domestic epidemic is still spreading continuously, And continue to envelop the market, suppress the market bulls’ motivation to enter, and the epidemic has a significant impact on the economy. Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short term.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (May 5): 3616.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business society, the average price of sulfur in East China today increased by 0.84% compared with yesterday. The inventory of domestic refineries was low, and the inventory of manufacturers was not under pressure. During the May Day holiday, the demand for sulfur was stable and good. The quotation in Shandong increased slightly. Individual enterprises adjusted the quotation according to their own shipment situation, and the price of sulfur in refineries in Shandong increased by 20-50 yuan / ton. The downstream sulfuric acid market is weak, the support for sulfur is weakened, the market of ammonium phosphate is temporarily stable, the fertilizer for spring ploughing is coming to an end, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand.

Future forecast: the short-term sulfur market is deadlocked and sorted out, and specific attention is paid to the downstream follow-up.

In April, the domestic methanol market fell significantly, the low level fluctuated, and the price trend curve fell unilaterally. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 3070 yuan / ton at the beginning of April and 2745 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price decreased by 10.56% during the month and increased by 6.81% year-on-year.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in March 2022, there were 10 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 9 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 56.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were coke (21.91%), petroleum coke (15.86%) and coking coal (14.06%). There are 5 kinds of commodities with a month on month decline, and 3 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were liquefied natural gas (- 13.45%), gasoline (- 7.29%) and naphtha (- 6.89%). The average rise and fall this month was 5.78%.

Comparison chart of methanol price trend of business society from 2018 to 2022:

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of April 29:

Region, Price

Qinghai region, No quotation

Shanxi Province, 2480-2510 yuan / ton

Liaoning Province, 2800 yuan / ton to cash exchange

Fujian Province, The negotiation price is 2800-2840 yuan / ton

Two lakes region, Mainstream negotiation reference: about 2730-2950 yuan / ton

Anhui Province, The mainstream negotiation is about 2800 yuan / ton

Henan Province, The shipping price is 2670 yuan / ton

At the beginning of the month, the rise of the domestic methanol market slowed down, the crude oil fluctuated widely, and the weak demand led to the terminal’s resistance to receiving goods at high prices. The domestic methanol spot market was slightly deadlocked.

In the first ten days of the month, the domestic methanol market fell slightly, the market atmosphere was slightly deadlocked, the traders bought gas in general, and the shipment was not smooth. The support of raw material coal price for methanol production cost was weakened. Although the equipment maintenance of some enterprises was slightly favorable in terms of supply, the downstream demand was still depressed.

In mid June, the domestic methanol market rebounded after falling, and the transaction volume was large. At the beginning of the week, domestic factories sharply reduced their quotation under the pressure of shipment. Due to the low inventory in the middle and lower reaches, the supply was reduced and replenished. The transaction volume was immediately increased, and the receiving price rebounded rapidly.

In late June, the domestic methanol market rose first and then fell, with limited overall volatility. Crude oil and macro atmosphere have weakened, affecting the decline of the futures market. Domestic production enterprises in the main production areas raised their quotations, but the transactions in various regions were different.

At the end of the month, macro and coal price support may be limited. In terms of fundamentals, the supply is still abundant, the marginal demand may weaken, and the methanol market may decline weakly

Monthly K column chart of methanol domestic production price of business society:

Weekly K column chart of methanol domestic production price of business society:

The profits of methanol industry chain rose and fell in the week. Upstream, the profit decreased slightly due to the decline of methanol price. In the downstream, although the outer disk of ethylene is loose, the performance of propylene is OK. In addition, the raw material methanol has fallen sharply, resulting in a large loss of olefin monomers and an improvement in strength; In other traditional downstream, except for the sharp rebound of MTBE price, the prices of other downstream products fell, and the price of acetic acid fell the most; The loss of formaldehyde profit narrowed due to the decline of raw material methanol, the profit of dimethyl ether fluctuated little, the profit of glacial acetic acid returned sharply again, the profit of MTBE improved significantly, and the profit of methane chloride improved slightly.

Comparison chart of price trend of coal (upstream products) and methanol in business community:

Comparison chart of methanol and dimethyl ether (downstream products) price trend of business society:

Comparison chart of methanol and formaldehyde (downstream products) price trend of business society:

Comparison chart of methanol and ethyl acetate (downstream products) price trend of business society:

In terms of external trading, as of the closing on April 27, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was US $419.50-420.50/ton, down US $19 / ton. US Gulf methanol market closed at 110.00-110.50 cents / gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 369.75-370.25 euros / ton.

region ., country., Closing price, Rise and fall

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 419.50-420.50 USD / ton, – 19 USD / ton

Europe and America, The Gulf of the United States, 110.00-110.50 cents / gallon, 0 cents / gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 369.75-370.25 euros / ton, 0 euro / ton

In the future, the price of raw coal is gradually returned to a reasonable range due to policy regulation. It is difficult to have a more obvious recovery in demand in the short term. Methanol analysts of business society predict that the methanol market may still fluctuate and decline.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid market price first fell and then rose this month. The quotation first fell from 345.00 yuan / ton on April 1 to 285.00 yuan / ton on April 19, a decrease of 17.39%, and then rose to 325.00 yuan / ton on April 29, an increase of 14.04%, a year-on-year increase of 43.38%.

On April 29, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 85.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 37.97% from the highest point 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 375.70% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is strengthened, and the downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose and fell this month, and the downstream demand is general.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly, strengthening the support for hydrochloric acid. The downstream ammonium chloride market rose slightly. The price of ammonium chloride rose from 1395.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1445.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3.58%, up 96.60% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream polyaluminium chloride market fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 2373.35 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2305.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 2.90%, up 34.23% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream markets have ups and downs, and the downstream has general enthusiasm for purchasing hydrochloric acid. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this month.

Market outlook rose slightly

The recent market of upstream liquid chlorine has increased slightly, the cost support has been strengthened, the market of downstream ammonium chloride has increased slightly, the price of polyaluminium chloride has fluctuated slightly, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream is general. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has mainly increased slightly in the near future.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price trend of sulfur first rose and then fell in April, and the market situation was strong. As of April 29, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China was 3586.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.91% in the month compared with 3386.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In April, the domestic sulfur market was strong, and the price rose during the month. Domestic refineries were overhauled and there was no pressure on enterprise inventory. In the early stage, the downstream sulfuric acid market was supported, and the demand for liquid sulfur increased. In addition, the shortage of port spot and high price supported the domestic sulfur fixation price. The quotation of on-site traders continued to rise. At the end of the month, the downstream sulfuric acid market was weak, the support for sulfur decreased, the logistics in Shandong was limited, the enterprise shipment was difficult, and the sulfur price decreased slightly.

Downstream market of industrial chain

The market of downstream sulfuric acid rose first and then fell in April. The price rose at 1133.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 1168.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an overall increase of 35 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.31% in the month. During the month, the mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers produced at low load and had less inventory. The downstream purchase fell compared with the previous month. The enterprise’s shipment was ok, the quotation increased according to the trend, and the market was strong in the month.

In terms of phosphate fertilizer, the market in April was stable and good, the market price of Monoammonium continued to rise, the enterprise has sufficient waiting volume, and the market is strong at a high level; The diammonium market has been sorted out at a high level, the price trend has increased slightly, the supply of diammonium is tight, the downstream is purchased on demand, the on-site trading is OK, and the traders operate with caution. The demand of phosphate fertilizer enterprises is stable, and the market of ammonium phosphate is dominant on the whole.

Future forecast

According to the sulfur analyst of business society, from the perspective of supply and demand performance, there is no pressure on the inventory of refineries in the domestic region, the downstream demand is good, and the market supply is short of demand. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, the transportation is limited, and the on-site trading is weakened. The short-term sulfur aftermarket situation is waiting to be sorted out, or it may rise, so we pay specific attention to the market transaction situation.