According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2715 yuan / ton on July 11, which was stable compared with the previous trading day, with a year-on-year increase of 6.89%. On July 11, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were weak and volatile. The main contract ma2209 closed at 2401 yuan / ton at the end of the day, down 84 yuan / ton or 5.40% from the closing of the previous trading day, leading the futures commodity market on the day. In terms of spot goods, at present, the supply side of methanol is abundant, and the demand side is relatively low, so it is difficult to have a significant opening in the short term. In the short term, the domestic methanol market continued to be depressed, mainly finishing.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, the price of pure benzene continued to weaken this week. On July 1, the price of pure benzene was 9250-9600 yuan / ton (average price 9509 yuan / ton), and on Friday (July 8), the price of pure benzene was 9200-9550 yuan / ton (average price 9267 yuan / ton). The average price fell by 2.54% compared with last week and increased by 7.38% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Affected by the sharp decline in crude oil during the week, bulk commodities weakened collectively; Pure benzene in Asia fell continuously, with bad external news; Coupled with general domestic buying, the price of pure benzene fell.

This week, Sinopec reduced the price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton to 9300 yuan / ton (Hebei and Shandong reduced the price of pure benzene to 9150 yuan / ton).

In the external market, Asian pure benzene fell broadly this week. On Thursday (July 7), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was $1125 / ton, down $131 / ton year-on-year, or 10.43%; The reference import price in East China was US $1162 / ton, with a year-on-year decrease of US $90 / ton, or 7.19%.

In terms of crude oil, the market’s concern about the global economic recession increased, leading to a sharp fall in international oil prices, and WTI oil prices fell below $100 a barrel. However, the inventory of refined oil products in the United States fell, and the increase in demand led to a rebound in oil prices. As of July 8, Brent’s price fell by $4.61 per barrel, or 4.13%, this week compared with last week; WTI fell $3.64 / barrel, or 3.36%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene rose slightly this week. The price was 10529 yuan / ton on July 1 and 10550 yuan / ton on July 8, up 0.2% from last week and 11.94% from the same period last year. Affected by the rise and fall of crude oil prices, the cost side is difficult to support the styrene market. However, the arrival of styrene in Hong Kong and the low inventory of enterprises limit its decline. The styrene market is generally traded, and the spot price fluctuates slightly.

Aniline: aniline rose slightly this week. On July 8, the price in Shandong was 11800-12000 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12300-12500 yuan / ton, up 0.42% from last week and 17.65% from the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In terms of crude oil, the long short game of crude oil is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

Downstream: the main downstream product styrene: the recent international crude oil market callback, styrene social inventory is low, and there are few negotiable sources of goods. It is expected that styrene will fluctuate with the raw material level.

The decline in the price of pure benzene led to an increase in downstream buying, and it is expected that the short-term weakness of pure benzene will fluctuate. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market price trends, pure benzene port inventory, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, on the 7th, the domestic glycine price stabilized at 18666 yuan / ton, with few market transactions and insufficient gas buying. At the same time, the downstream glyphosate fell again, and the price of the technical drug fell to around 63000 yuan / ton. Supply and demand were weak. The glycine analysts of the business community believed that due to the decline of glyphosate and the constraints of upstream and downstream, it was expected that the glycine market would be weak in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of petroleum asphalt manufacturers in Shandong Province was 4575 yuan / ton on July 6, down 0.68% from the previous trading day and up 31.49% year-on-year. The sharp decline of international crude oil led to the decline of asphalt futures. In terms of spot goods, the demand in various regions is slightly stable, and the recent supply has increased significantly. Most contracts are executed, and retail shipments are general. In the short term, the domestic asphalt market is in a downturn, mainly finishing.

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of July 5, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 1043 yuan / ton. Compared with June 1 (the reference price of phosphorus ore was 910 yuan / ton), the price increased by 133 yuan / ton, or 14.65%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that the domestic phosphate ore market as a whole continued to operate at a high level and strong in July. The supply of phosphate rock in the quarry continues to be tight, and the shortage of medium and high-grade phosphate ore is still the same. The circulating supply of phosphate rock in the mine is limited. Many large factories mainly use phosphate rock for their own use, and there is no saleable supply externally. Some mines in Guangxi and Guizhou mainly receive orders in advance, and mining enterprises in Hebei mainly supply shareholders. In terms of downstream demand, the demand for downstream phosphate fertilizer products has performed well, which has also boosted the demand side of the phosphate ore market this year. Therefore, with the support of both supply and demand, the domestic phosphorus ore market has continued to operate at a high level for nearly July. As of July 5, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou is around 1030-1100 yuan / ton, and the market price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is around 930-980 yuan / ton.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, the overall market price of yellow phosphorus fell in June. In July, the decline in the yellow phosphorus market continued. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 37000 yuan on July 4, a decrease of 1.6% compared with July 1 (37600 yuan / ton).

Prediction and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

With the continuous strengthening of environmental protection policies in recent years, the mining requirements of phosphate rock have also been raised, and the mining difficulty has expanded. In addition, phosphate rock itself is a non renewable resource, and domestic medium and high-end grade phosphate rock is relatively small. Therefore, in the short term, the relief of the tight market supply situation is limited. Phosphate rock datagraphers of business society believe that recently, the domestic phosphate rock market is mainly stable and high-level operation, Specific trends also need to pay more attention to specific changes in supply and demand.