Trade name: caprolactam

Latest price: 13612 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of caprolactam rose on March 3, up 0.55% compared with the previous trading day. Due to the rising price of crude oil and the rising price of raw material pure benzene, caprolactam raw material supports the good. Under cost pressure, some caprolactam enterprises raised prices. In the short term, the raw material market continues the upward trend, and caprolactam is rising steadily. It is recommended to pay attention to cost side changes.

Future forecast: the price of caprolactam will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business society, 99.9% of the factory price including tax in mainstream areas was 44500 yuan / ton on the 2nd, down 1.48% on the previous trading day, and the magnesium price was weak.

The metal magnesium market continued to decline, mainly due to the lack of demand support, the lack of follow-up to high prices in the downstream, the rapid speculation in the early stage was difficult to maintain, and the actual transaction of the factory was quite flat; On the supply side, the magnesium plant is currently stable in production and the market inventory is increasing day by day. Under the market pattern of oversupply, the magnesium plant is willing to actively consume the inventory and deliver at a low price. The price of magnesium ingots may be weakly and stably consolidated in the short term.

Business analysts believe that the price of magnesium ingots may be weak and stable in the short term.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (March 1): 2400.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of sulfur in East China today is 6.51% higher than that of yesterday. The domestic sulfur market is strong and upward. The fixed sulfur in East China is increased by 200 yuan / ton, while the liquid sulfur is only increased by 50 yuan / ton for individual manufacturers, and other quotations are stable; The price of solid sulfur liquid in Shandong Province increased by 120 yuan / ton; In North China, the fixed sulfur is increased by 30-60 yuan / ton and the liquid sulfur is increased by 60-100 yuan / ton. There is no inventory pressure on domestic refineries, and the quotation closely follows the changes of market news. Due to the severe international situation, the freight of imported sulfur increases, the port supply is limited, and the price is mainly supported by the cargo holders. The downstream demand for domestic refineries increases. Due to the weakening of sulfuric acid market, the price of liquid sulfur changes little, while the demand for phosphate fertilizer is stable, and the port market stimulates the sharp rise of sulfur fixation price.

Future forecast: the future sulfur market will be sorted out at a high level, with specific attention to the downstream follow-up.

According to the monitoring, on February 28, the opening price of the main contract was 13955 yuan / ton, the settlement price was 13885 yuan / ton, the highest price was 13970 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 13815 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 13870 yuan / ton, down 185 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume is 188300 hands and the position is 26.10 hands. The spot price is adjusted with the offer, down by about 50 yuan / ton. The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 13114 yuan / ton on the 28th, down about 56 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

Key points of analysis: on the macro level, the recent escalation of geographical conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and the rise of macro risk sentiment have exacerbated the market’s concern about the interruption of energy supply, and the international oil price has risen. On the supply side, as the Southeast Asian production areas enter the production reduction period, the supply of natural rubber will be at the lowest point of the year, and it is expected that the output this year will be generally lower than that of last year: recent reports from Thailand show that the total output of Thailand in the first quarter of 2022 will be 6.35% lower than that of 2021, and it is expected that the output will be reduced by about 387000 tons and 142000 tons in February and March due to the impact of the cut-off period and defoliation. At present, China is still in the period of stopping cutting. It is reported that the weather in Yunnan is good recently, and the cutting is expected to be earlier than last year. On the demand side, the start-up of tire enterprises picked up after the year, and the demand for semi steel tires was better than that of all steel tires. It is reported that the manufacturer’s resumption time was earlier this year, and its purchase demand for natural rubber gradually recovered. However, the latest statistics show that the operating rate last week was lower than that of the previous week, which affected its enthusiasm for natural rubber purchase demand. On the inventory side, Qingdao’s inventory continued to increase, but the growth rate slowed down. The data showed that as of February 20, the total inventory of natural rubber bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 369100 tons, an increase of 5.52% month on month. According to market news, the cumulative range of natural rubber Warehouse Receipt Inventory and natural rubber spot inventory has narrowed recently.

Future forecast: the international situation is uncertain, and its impact on bulk commodities continues. The supply side is gradually favorable, while the downstream procurement has warmed up, but the volume has not been significantly improved. The spot of the port on the inventory side continues to increase, and the growth rate of single orders slows down. Combined with the recent trend of crude oil, under the background of the continuous reduction of supply pressure, the natural rubber market at a phased low has strong upward momentum in the medium term, but the demand promotion has not increased on a large scale, and the short-term weak fluctuation trend is expected to continue.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market continued to rise on February 25. The average market price in East China was 5709 yuan / ton, up 0.41% from the previous trading day and 20.44% year-on-year. PTA futures 2205 closed at 5708, up 72, or 1.28%.

Statistics of recent changes in domestic PTA units

manufacturing enterprise Unit capacity (10000 t / a) Device change

Yisheng Ningbo two hundred It was overhauled on February 10. It was originally planned to restart on February 24, but now it is postponed to restart in March.

Yisheng new materials three hundred and thirty From February 9 to the end of February, the load was reduced to 50%.

three hundred and thirty The construction started in late February increased to 80%.

Yisheng Dalian two hundred and twenty-five On February 24, it was overhauled for about two weeks.

three hundred and seventy-five It is planned to be overhauled in May.

Zhongtai petrochemical one hundred and twenty About 80% of the construction started in early February.

Yangzi Petrochemical sixty-five Maintenance on March 25 and February.

Dushan energy two hundred and twenty Minor repair, to be determined.

Zhuhai Yinglishi one hundred and twenty-five It is planned to overhaul on March 26 and restart on April 10.

Yisheng Hainan two hundred It is planned to be overhauled in April.

Fuhaichuang four hundred and fifty It is planned to reduce the load by 20% – 50% in March, which will be determined according to the market situation.

In terms of devices, Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million ton PTA device plans to reduce the load by 20% – 50% in March, which will be determined according to the market situation. Under the low processing cost, the maintenance of domestic factories has increased, and the current operating rate of domestic industries has dropped to around 78%.

On February 24, the price of international crude oil futures rose sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $96.77/barrel, up US $4.67 or 5.07%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $95.42/barrel, up US $1.37 or 1.45%. Brent crude oil rose above $105, mainly due to the geopolitical tensions in Russia and Ukraine, which exacerbated the market’s concerns about the interruption of energy supply.

The downstream polyester market price rose slightly with the raw materials, and the quotation of some mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. Ammunition and knitting factories have resumed work one after another, and the startup rate has rebounded significantly. As of February 24, 2022, the comprehensive starting load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has increased to more than 61%.

Business analysts believe that the short-term crude oil price is easy to rise but difficult to fall, the cost supports PTA, and the PTA maintenance plan increases from March to April. It is expected that the downstream demand will pick up, and the PTA price will remain volatile and upward.