Data monitoring showed that on February 24, Shanghai Rubber continued to fluctuate slightly. The opening price of the main contract was 14030 yuan / ton, the settlement price was 14085 yuan / ton, the highest price was 14230 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 13965 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 14070 yuan / ton, up 0.29% from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 238900 and the position is 253700. The spot price is adjusted with the offer, and the adjustment range is maintained at about 100 yuan / ton; The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 13312 yuan / ton, up about 100 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

Key points of analysis: on the supply side, the current natural rubber supply is about to be in the lowest valley of the year, and the Southeast Asian production areas are gradually entering the production reduction period, but China has not yet cut it; On the demand side, the start-up of tire enterprises gradually picked up after the year. It is reported that the manufacturer’s resumption time is ahead of schedule this year, and its purchase demand for natural rubber continues to recover. On the inventory side, Qingdao’s inventory continues to increase. Statistics show that it has reached 350000 tons so far, of which the increase of dark rubber ring is significant; According to market news, the warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber and the cumulative inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao narrowed in the previous period. Latest industry news: on February 24, Thailand’s State Council spokesman tanakong revealed that the prime minister and Defense Minister General Bayu was satisfied with the rising trend of rubber prices in 2022, and it is expected that rubber exports could exceed 4.218 million tons worldwide; Tanagung said that general Bayu urged all government units to actively follow up the implementation of the projects formulated by the prime minister and the government, and continue to take care of the people in all walks of life, especially in the aspects of crops and agricultural economy, such as rubber, an important cash crop in Thailand; With the continuous stability of rubber prices, the price difference of rubber farmers subsidized by the government’s “rubber price guarantee plan” has been reduced, and the survey found that the majority of rubber farmers are very satisfied with the plan. Even so, general Bayu still ordered all relevant units to implement various subsidy plans, including the rubber price guarantee plan, in order to solve the problems and impacts affecting the general public.

Future forecast: the demand for natural rubber procurement is picking up, but it will take time for large-scale improvement; Although the growth rate of spot inventory has narrowed, the upward momentum of the market will still be suppressed. It is generally expected that under the background that the downstream demand continues to rebound in the low period of annual supply, natural rubber is expected to receive strong support in the medium term and the trend of small fluctuation in the short term is expected to continue.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (February 23): 4572 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of acetic acid continued to decline today. The average market price in East China decreased by 2.56% in a single day. The price of acetic acid in domestic areas decreased synchronously, with a decline range of about 200 yuan / ton. The market situation was obviously weak. At present, the operating rate of acetic acid is high, the operation of enterprises is stable, the market supply is sufficient, the downstream demand continues to be weak, mainly digesting the early orders, the atmosphere of new orders in the market is light, the inventory of acetic acid enterprises is accumulated, the situation of oversupply is difficult to improve in a short time, and the competitive shipping quotation of acetic acid enterprises is reduced.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market will continue to be weak, and the specific attention will be paid to the market supply.

Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (February 22): 7250 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the price trend of cryolite in Henan is stable, and the average production price in Henan is flat compared with yesterday. Affected by heating, enterprises in the North start work on a low level, the manufacturer’s quotation is firm, the cryolite price is firm and stable, and the downstream demand is stable. Enterprises negotiate shipment. In a short time, the price market also needs to pay attention to the enterprise’s inventory. At present, the venue holds a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market.

Future forecast: wait and see the cryolite market and pay attention to the market supply.

Trade name: caprolactam

Latest price: 13837 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of caprolactam fell on February 21, down 2.55% compared with the previous trading day. At present, there is a large spot supply of caprolactam. In order to digest the inventory, the market focus has shifted downward. The downstream PA6 chip market is not smooth, the price is reduced, and the demand for caprolactam is reduced. The market is dominated by bad conditions, and the overall operation is weak. It is recommended to focus on cost and demand side changes.

Future forecast: caprolactam market trend will run downward in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price fell first and then rose this week. As of February 18, the spot nickel price was 179333.33 yuan / ton, up 0.9% from 177733.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 28.2% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of the business society, in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price has risen by 7, fell by 5 and leveled by 1. The recent trend of nickel price is still dominated by strong shock.

Nickel industry chain

In terms of supply and demand: enterprises in Guangxi, Tianjin and Shandong continued to stop production since 2021, and enterprises in Gansu, Jilin and Xinjiang normally produced during the Spring Festival. In January, the overall output of domestic refined nickel is expected to decrease by 13.86% month on month to 12500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.93%. In February, the output of 300 series stainless steel crude steel was 1256600 tons, a month on month decrease of 1.1% and a year-on-year increase of 11.0%. In February, the estimated output of China’s ternary precursor was 64500 tons, an increase of 1.1% month on month and 51% year-on-year.

To sum up: the current shortage of nickel metal, combined with the strong development of terminal new energy vehicles, drives the stable growth of the demand for nickel for batteries. The inventory of the exchange remains low, the inventory of LME nickel continues to decline, and continues to maintain the new low in the past two years. The pattern of tight nickel supply remains, and the fundamental support is strong. The potential adverse factors for the release of thousands of tons of nickel in March are the high price of ice and the potential squeeze of downstream profits. On the whole, before a large amount of high matte nickel is released, the shortage of pure nickel is difficult to alleviate, and the nickel price is expected to remain high.