On June 6, the mainstream quotation range of 1\tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market was 259000-265000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 262000 yuan / ton, down 9000 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

On the morning of the 6th, Shanghai tin fell by more than 4%, and the spot market mainly followed the decline. Before the festival, the tin price hit the bottom and rebounded, but the downstream demand performance was general, and the support for tin price was limited. The inventory rebounded in the previous period, dragging down the market mentality, and the tin price fell. In the short term, the tin price mainly follows the trend of futures. Under the environment of stable supply and soft demand, the tin price is expected to fluctuate in the short term.

The cost side rose and the demand side recovered, and the price of styrene butadiene rubber rose in May. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of May 31, the price of styrene butadiene 1502 was 12700 yuan / ton, up 6.80% from 11891 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Since May, the ex factory price of styrene butadiene rubber has increased. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of May 31, Sinopec North China sales company Qilu 1502 reported 12800 yuan / ton, and North China warehouse raised the price. The international oil price rose, the prices of raw materials butadiene and styrene rose, and the cost side supported; In addition, the construction of downstream tire enterprises is between 60% and 70%, and most of them have the behavior of purchasing and replenishing stock, so the offer of traders is higher.

In May, the prices of butadiene and styrene rose, which strengthened the support of styrene butadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of May 31, the price of butadiene was 11274 yuan / ton, up 14.86% from 9816 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. As of May 31, the price of styrene was 10264 yuan / ton, up 5.46% from 9733 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month

The natural rubber market rose slightly in May. As of May 31, the price was 12922 yuan / ton, up 3.28% from 12512 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: the analysts of the business community believe that the cost side is rising and the demand side is supporting. It is expected that the styrene butadiene rubber will fluctuate at a high level in the later period.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 2, the price of primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 3116 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day.

The mainstream of coking coal prices is running smoothly. In terms of origin, most coal mines maintain normal production, and the downstream mainly purchases on demand. Affected by environmental protection inspection, the coal supply has been tightened; The mood of downstream coke has picked up, but it is cautious to purchase raw materials. The price of coking coal may be adjusted and operated in a stable manner, and the specific demand of downstream market.

On February 2, the coke market price was temporarily stable. At present, the coking enterprises are operating normally. Most of the goods in the plant flow to traders. The inventory in the plant is running at a low level, and the sales situation is good. Some enterprises’ profits were damaged, and the enterprises took the initiative to limit production by 10-30%. At present, the downstream steel mills are actively engaged in operation, with a high overall operating rate, still good demand for coke, and a slight recovery in the profits of the steel mills. The downstream rigid demand still exists. Recently, the futures market has performed well. Traders have actively entered the market to inquire about goods. Coke sales have improved, and coke enterprises’ mentality has gradually strengthened. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the short term. In the future, we will focus on the coke inventory in all links, the production restriction of coke enterprises, the price trend of coking coal and the sales of downstream finished products.

On June 1, DOP price was temporarily stable

According to the data monitoring of the business club, on June 1, the DOP price stabilized and the DOP market stabilized. On June 1, the DOP price was 11912.50 yuan / ton, which was the same as the DOP price of 11912.50 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; DOP cost tends to be stable and DOP market remains stable.

Key points of analysis

The price of raw material isooctanol fell, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, and DOP cost was adjusted weakly; Downstream plastic PVC prices tend to stabilize and demand picks up; The downward pressure of plasticizer still exists, and the upward momentum is weakened.

Aftermarket expectation

The demand for cost reduction is temporarily stable, the upward momentum of DOP is weakened, and the downward pressure remains. It is expected that the DOP price will be adjusted in the future.

Cobalt price fell sharply in May

According to the monitoring data of the business club, the cobalt market fell sharply in May, and the cobalt price fell sharply. As of May 31, the average price of cobalt was 449400 yuan / ton, down 16.78% from 540000 yuan / ton on May 1. The demand of cobalt market fell significantly, and the cobalt price fell sharply in May.

Sales of new energy vehicles fell month on month

According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, new energy vehicles are one of the few bright colors in the automobile industry in April. In April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 312000 and 299000 respectively, down 33.0% and 38.3% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 43.9% and 44.6%. Although the production and sales continued to maintain rapid growth year-on-year, they decreased month on month, and the year-on-year growth slowed down. The demand of the cobalt market fell, and the pressure on the cobalt market increased.

Decline in ternary battery output

In April, China’s ternary battery output was 12.6gwh, a month on month decrease of 27% and a year-on-year increase of 55%; In April, China recovered 19421 tons of used lithium batteries, a month on month increase of 1.2% and a year-on-year increase of 31%. In May, the market demand for cobalt salt, ternary and lithium cobaltate was low, mainly for purchasing, and the inventory of downstream enterprises was low, so the demand for cobalt was low. The output of ternary batteries decreased, the recycling of waste batteries increased, the demand of cobalt market declined, and the supply rose. The overall momentum of cobalt market rose weaker, and the downward pressure increased.

Mobile phone sales fell sharply

According to the data released by the Ministry of industry and information technology, from January to April, the output of mobile phones among the main products was 480million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%; The output of microcomputer equipment was 140million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%. According to customs statistics, from January to April, China exported 59.97 million laptops, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%; 270Million mobile phones were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%. The output and export of electronic products both fell sharply, the demand of cobalt market fell, and the pressure of cobalt price decline increased.

Decline in international cobalt price

It can be seen from the trend chart of LME cobalt price that the LME cobalt price fell sharply in May, the international cobalt price fell, the cobalt market fell, dragging down the domestic cobalt market, increasing the negative impact on the domestic cobalt market, and increasing the downward pressure on the domestic cobalt price.

Market Overview

Baijiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, believes that the sales of new energy vehicles and mobile phones have both declined, the demand for cobalt has declined significantly, the cobalt market has declined across the board, the price of cobalt salt has fallen sharply, and the international price of cobalt has fallen sharply; On the supply side, the battery recycling market is advancing slowly, and the supply of cobalt market has increased. Generally speaking, under the background of obvious decline in cobalt market demand and relatively stable supply, the downward pressure on cobalt price has increased and the upward momentum is insufficient. With the steady progress of resumption of work and production, the future cobalt market demand is expected to grow slowly, but the short-term recovery speed of cobalt market demand may be difficult to meet expectations, and the downward pressure on cobalt price still exists. In the long run, new energy vehicles have become the largest end consumer of cobalt. With the growth of new energy vehicle sales, The steady growth of cobalt market demand is inevitable. Cobalt prices are still supported by high prices. There is limited room for future cobalt prices to fall. Future cobalt prices may stop falling and recover.