Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (February 17): 5182 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of acetic acid fell again today, and the average market price in East China decreased by 3.07% compared with the previous working day. The domestic market continued to operate in a weak position. Acetic acid enterprises started stably, the market supply was sufficient, and the downstream demand was weak. They mainly digested the early orders. The atmosphere for the transaction of new orders in the market was light, the inventory of acetic acid enterprises accumulated, and the shipping quotation of goods holders was reduced after competition.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market is weak, and the specific attention is paid to the market supply.

The price of ethylene oxide is temporarily stable. The ex factory price in East China, North China and Northeast China is 7700 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price in central and South China is 7900 yuan / ton.

The price of upstream ethylene rose and fluctuated at a high level. The external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was US $1210 / ton, that in Southeast Asia was US $1190 / ton, and that of Jinshan Lianmao ethylene was 8600 yuan / ton today. However, the recovery of downstream demand was slightly slower than that in previous years, the rise of monomer was blocked and the consolidation was deadlocked. At present, the switch between EO and EG is opened again recently, and the EO supply is expected to be loose.

Forecast: due to the long short game, there are differences in market mentality, so we need to pay attention to the latest factory news guidance.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (February 15): 2203.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of sulfur in East China today is 1.54% higher than that of yesterday. The domestic sulfur market continues to rise. The price of solid and liquid sulfur in Shandong is increased by 50 yuan / ton simultaneously, that of Zhenhai Refining and chemical in East China is increased by 30 yuan / ton, and that of other refineries is unchanged. The price of liquid sulfur in North China is increased by 40-50 yuan / ton, and that of liquid sulfur in East China is increased by 100 yuan / ton. There is no inventory pressure for domestic refineries, the downstream sulfuric acid market is improving, the demand for liquid sulfur is increasing, the port supply flows into the market is less, the port cargo holders have strong intention to support the price, and the liquid sulfur price of regional refineries is rising; In terms of downstream phosphate fertilizer, the demand for sulfur is acceptable, the refinery shipment is smooth, and the price of sulfur fixation increases slightly.

Future forecast: wait and see the future sulfur market, and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

441# silicon price trend

In the first week after returning to the market, metal silicon manufacturers have raised prices one after another, with strong willingness to support prices. On February 11, the average spot price of 441# metal silicon was reported at 20840 yuan / ton, up 0.24% from that of the year before. At the end of the week, due to the low downstream operating rate and general demand, the rising power was insufficient, and the price gradually stabilized.

Supply side

After the festival, silicon plants resumed production one after another. However, due to the dry season, the southwest still maintained the shutdown state. In some areas, the resumption time was also delayed due to the high electricity price, and the output decreased slightly in January. According to statistics, the output of metal silicon in January totaled 211700 tons, a decrease of 14.9% month on month. The main areas of production reduction are the areas affected by water in Yunnan and Sichuan. It is worth mentioning that the social inventory of metal silicon is OK, and there is basically no demand at the end of 2021. Because of the high profit in the early stage and the strong willingness of silicon factory merchants to raise prices in the new year.

Demand side

In terms of organosilicon DMC, the price has risen steadily and slightly. The factory quotation of domestic organosilicon DMC is around 31000-31500 yuan / ton, and the average price is 31420 yuan / ton. The market situation has gradually recovered, and the demand for metal silicon is only maintained at the level of rigid demand. In terms of aluminum alloy, the mainstream quotation in the market is 22000 yuan / ton. The price of aluminum alloy rises with the price of aluminum, and the expectation for the future market is good, but the market trading atmosphere is poor.

Future forecast

At present, the metal silicon market is still uncertain. After the festival, the downstream demand has not been fully released. Manufacturers mainly consume inventory, the operating rate of the supply side is low, and the southwest region is still in the shutdown state. Some silicon plants say that they will not start the furnace until the wet season. The supply side is expected to be gradually reduced. In addition, the rise of raw material cost and electricity price supports the increase of business quotation, It is expected that in the short term, the supply will shrink and the price will rise. In the long term, it is also necessary to pay attention to the demand side’s inventory consumption.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on February 11, the average early price of silver market was 4762.33 yuan / kg, down 0.29%, which was 0.64% lower than the average early price of spot market price of 4793 yuan / kg before the festival (January 31).

On February 11, the spot market price of gold was 374.21 yuan / g, down 0.48%, up 0.31% from the spot market price of 373.05 yuan / g before the holiday (January 31).

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

 
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence and the trend is basically the same. Gold prices have been relatively strong recently.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

News of interest rate hike policy

According to the data of the U.S. Department of labor, the year-on-year increase of U.S. CPI in January expanded to 7.5%, higher than the market expectation, and the core CPI increased by 6% year-on-year, both the largest increase since 1982.

After the data came out, the yield of 10-year US bonds broke the 2% mark for the first time in two and a half years. The market predicts that the Fed is more than 50% likely to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in March, and will raise interest rates by 100 basis points by the end of July. According to the data released at the same time, the adjusted average hourly salary in January decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, the 10th consecutive month.

In addition, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week was 223000, a decrease of 16000 compared with the previous week, the third consecutive week of decline. As of the week of January 29, the number of people who renewed their claims for unemployment benefits was flat at 1.62 million.

US data strengthened market expectations for the fed to start raising interest rates. Federal Reserve Balkin: conceptually, he is open to raising interest rates by 50 basis points

Bank of Thailand: Thailand’s monetary policy does not follow other countries. The spillover effect of the Fed’s interest rate hike is limited.

Domestic monetary policy news

According to the central bank data released yesterday, at the end of January, the balance of broad money (M2) was 243.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, 0.8 and 0.4 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year, estimated at 9.2% and 9% respectively. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 61.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%. Excluding the influence of the wrong timing factor ① of the Spring Festival, M1 increased by about 2% year-on-year. The balance of money in circulation (M0) was 10.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%. The net cash invested in the month was 1.54 trillion yuan.

China’s social financing scale increased by 6170 billion yuan in January, with an estimated 5385 billion yuan, compared with 2368.2 billion yuan. At the end of January, the stock of social financing scale in China was 320.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%.

In January, China increased RMB loans by 3980 billion yuan, a monthly statistical high, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year; It is expected to be 3700 billion yuan, compared with 1131.8 billion yuan. In terms of sub sectors, household loans increased by 843 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 100.6 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 742.4 billion yuan; Loans to enterprises (Institutions) increased by 3.36 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 1.01 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 2.1 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 178.8 billion yuan; Loans from non banking financial institutions decreased by 141.7 billion yuan.

Future forecast

The expectation of raising interest rates in the near future still exists, suppressing interest free assets and putting pressure on the price of precious metal silver. However, geopolitical news triggered a certain rise in risk aversion. It is expected that the price of precious metals will still be in the stage of upward weakness and weak consolidation in the short term.